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Poker Hand Analysis
Value bet the river?
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Topic: Value bet the river? (Read 2355 times)
boldie
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22392
Don't make me mad
Re: Value bet the river?
«
Reply #15 on:
December 15, 2007, 09:00:53 PM »
Quote from: RichEO on December 15, 2007, 07:36:33 PM
Well, I think I'm against AQ or a FD. I am betting to extract value. If I bet too much they fold and I win nothing. If they have a big hand, I'm getting re-raised with 2 hearts on the board.
----- RIVER ----- [
][
]
sayenda: checks
RichEO: checks
----- SHOW DOWN -----
sayenda: shows [
] (A Pair of Aces, King high)
RichEO: shows [
] (Three of a kind, Jacks, Ace high)
RichEO collected $117 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $120 Main pot $117 Rake $3
Really gald a club didn't come. I was paying that off, and another reason to bet bigger on the turn
That's truly astonishingly awful.It's beyond belief for me how poor you played this hand..surely you should have played it a lot more agressively.You took 50$ of this guy and could have had his stack. The check on the river is too bad to be a good play here and I can not believe people are actually advocating a check here.
I'm with Lloyd and Longy on this..you have lost more money here than you've won. If I was at your table I might actually note you down as playing scared money...
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
RichEO
Hero Member
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Posts: 1493
Re: Value bet the river?
«
Reply #16 on:
December 15, 2007, 11:43:19 PM »
Quote from: boldie on December 15, 2007, 09:00:53 PM
That's truly astonishingly awful.It's beyond belief for me how poor you played this hand..surely you should have played it a lot more agressively.You took 50$ of this guy and could have had his stack. The check on the river is too bad to be a good play here and I can not believe people are actually advocating a check here.
I'm with Lloyd and Longy on this..you have lost more money here than you've won. If I was at your table I might actually note you down as playing scared money...
It's obviously easy in hindsight. Are your comments supposed to be constructive in some way? I think I missed it if so.
So you bet it bigger and win nothing when he folds A10 and AQ? What hands are we hoping he comes along with when he bet bigger, are we just hoping he overcalls with a flush draw?
As played, putting him on a range of hands that he was calling with, how many of those hands actually call a river value bet when the flush has also hit? The hands I can put him on are A10, AQ, AK, A3 or flush draw. It's likely a set of threes or AJ would re-raise. How many of these hands call me on the river? Not many I don't think. Hence, is the check on the river THAT bad?
Now, if we had bet bigger, we can say the FD should have folded and we are commited.
Now, I'm regretting revealing his hand quite so soon. He had the hand that WOULD call a bigger bet on the flop and turn. A lot of players would have raised with his hand on the flop or turn (turn especially). This of course would have made it an easier hand for me.
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
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Posts: 10040
Go Ducks!
Re: Value bet the river?
«
Reply #17 on:
December 16, 2007, 12:21:34 AM »
Quote from: RichEO on December 15, 2007, 11:43:19 PM
Quote from: boldie on December 15, 2007, 09:00:53 PM
That's truly astonishingly awful.It's beyond belief for me how poor you played this hand..surely you should have played it a lot more agressively.You took 50$ of this guy and could have had his stack. The check on the river is too bad to be a good play here and I can not believe people are actually advocating a check here.
I'm with Lloyd and Longy on this..you have lost more money here than you've won. If I was at your table I might actually note you down as playing scared money...
It's obviously easy in hindsight. Are your comments supposed to be constructive in some way? I think I missed it if so.
So you bet it bigger and win nothing when he folds A10 and AQ? What hands are we hoping he comes along with when he bet bigger, are we just hoping he overcalls with a flush draw?
As played, putting him on a range of hands that he was calling with, how many of those hands actually call a river value bet when the flush has also hit? The hands I can put him on are A10, AQ, AK, A3 or flush draw. It's likely a set of threes or AJ would re-raise. How many of these hands call me on the river? Not many I don't think. Hence, is the check on the river THAT bad?
Now, if we had bet bigger, we can say the FD should have folded and we are commited.
Now, I'm regretting revealing his hand quite so soon. He had the hand that WOULD call a bigger bet on the flop and turn. A lot of players would have raised with his hand on the flop or turn (turn especially). This of course would have made it an easier hand for me.
I know this reply is directed at Boldie but i really think you are making some incorrect assumptions generally here.
1. Alot of players call you with aq, a10 on this turn, if what you say is true two things are happening
(a) Your table selection is pretty poor and you are playing with a bunch of nits/good players.
(b) Your image is far too nitty that someone knows you couldn't possibly double barrell this turn without a super strong hand.
2. His range is wider than you think ak,aq,aj,a10,a8,ac xc, 33, hearts, random weird clubs (kj,qj etc).
3. Of this range hearts bet here at least 50% of the time, i actually think its more. As he doesn't bet we can say that hearts is half as likely as it was before but the rest of the range is still about as likely. If we bet half the pot on the river he will be getting 3 to 1 on whatever hand he has and will call with a considerable amount of his range.
If you don't believe me, I would suggest dropping down a level if you don't like the varience of playing aggressive poker. Start making thin value bets on the river (this hand is not a thin value bet imo), you will be shocked by the stuff you get called by. By making thin value bets opponents will open their calling ranges allowing you to bet more hands.
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RichEO
Hero Member
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Posts: 1493
Re: Value bet the river?
«
Reply #18 on:
December 16, 2007, 01:46:11 AM »
Quote from: Longy on December 16, 2007, 12:21:34 AM
Quote from: RichEO on December 15, 2007, 11:43:19 PM
It's obviously easy in hindsight. Are your comments supposed to be constructive in some way? I think I missed it if so.
So you bet it bigger and win nothing when he folds A10 and AQ? What hands are we hoping he comes along with when he bet bigger, are we just hoping he overcalls with a flush draw?
As played, putting him on a range of hands that he was calling with, how many of those hands actually call a river value bet when the flush has also hit? The hands I can put him on are A10, AQ, AK, A3 or flush draw. It's likely a set of threes or AJ would re-raise. How many of these hands call me on the river? Not many I don't think. Hence, is the check on the river THAT bad?
Now, if we had bet bigger, we can say the FD should have folded and we are commited.
Now, I'm regretting revealing his hand quite so soon. He had the hand that WOULD call a bigger bet on the flop and turn. A lot of players would have raised with his hand on the flop or turn (turn especially). This of course would have made it an easier hand for me.
I know this reply is directed at Boldie but i really think you are making some incorrect assumptions generally here.
1. Alot of players call you with aq, a10 on this turn, if what you say is true two things are happening
(a) Your table selection is pretty poor and you are playing with a bunch of nits/good players.
(b) Your image is far too nitty that someone knows you couldn't possibly double barrell this turn without a super strong hand.
Yes, I know a lot of players call with A10 and AQ here and that's what I was putting him on TBH. But if I bet bigger (as suggested) do I push most players off these hands?
Quote
2. His range is wider than you think ak,aq,aj,a10,a8,ac xc, 33, hearts, random weird clubs (kj,qj etc).
I figured AJ and 33 would raise back. Random clubs should be out. How did A8 make it to the turn? I do consider my oppo to be tight, he has a Vpip of 18%
Quote
3. Of this range hearts bet here at least 50% of the time, i actually think its more. As he doesn't bet we can say that hearts is half as likely as it was before but the rest of the range is still about as likely. If we bet half the pot on the river he will be getting 3 to 1 on whatever hand he has and will call with a considerable amount of his range.
If you don't believe me, I would suggest dropping down a level if you don't like the varience of playing aggressive poker. Start making thin value bets on the river (this hand is not a thin value bet imo), you will be shocked by the stuff you get called by. By making thin value bets opponents will open their calling ranges allowing you to bet more hands.
I probably knew I should be betting the river. Which is why there was so much doubt as soon as I checked.
Anyway, bet bigger, bet the river. Will see how that goes.
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Smart Money
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 384
Re: Value bet the river?
«
Reply #19 on:
December 17, 2007, 12:34:51 AM »
Quote from: RichEO on December 15, 2007, 07:36:33 PM
----- SHOW DOWN -----
sayenda: shows [
] (A Pair of Aces, King high)
RichEO: shows [
] (Three of a kind, Jacks, Ace high)
RichEO collected $117 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $120 Main pot $117 Rake $3
Really gald a club didn't come. I was paying that off, and another reason to bet bigger on the turn
You'd have to be a genius to put him on "[something like] AQ. Perhaps AcXc."
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