Good Call Bad Call?

[UpTheMariners]

FullTiltPoker Game #4777533354: Table Artie (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:55:42 ET - 2008/01/07
Seat 1: sqbull ($347.20)
Seat 2: hockey3535 ($263.50)
Seat 3: NeverOnADraw ($417.60)
Seat 4: dglenn59 ($406)
Seat 5: LzyScmbg ($540.45)
Seat 6: UpTheMariners ($684.75)
hockey3535 posts the small blind of $2
NeverOnADraw posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to UpTheMariners [ ]
dglenn59 raises to $14
LzyScmbg folds
UpTheMariners raises to $48
sqbull folds
hockey3535 calls $46
NeverOnADraw folds
dglenn59 calls $34
*** FLOP *** [ ]
hockey3535 checks
dglenn59 checks
UpTheMariners checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
hockey3535 checks
dglenn59 bets $60
UpTheMariners has 15 seconds left to act
UpTheMariners calls $60
hockey3535 raises to $215.50, and is all in
dglenn59 folds
UpTheMariners has 15 seconds left to act
UpTheMariners has requested TIME
UpTheMariners calls $155.50

good call or bad call ive got the guy on possibly aq?

[jakally]

I am struggling to understand the all-in players play as he has cold called a 3 bet for a 5th of his stack.
As he has less than the full buy in he is probably a weak player so his range is probably quite wide.

Worst case you still have outs, but it is probably a marginal call in terms of pot odds, and more likely is a losing play (although not by much).
Against AQ/KQ you are getting  3 to 1 on a 3 to 1 ish call.

QQ and 99 are not impossible, which mean you are a bigger dog, and similarly against a made flush (KsJs / JsTs).

Probably a fold but a call isn't a disaster.

[Longy]

Pot odds question, 155 to win 485.50. So we need about 24%.





  1,892  games     0.015 secs   126,133  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    24.419%     21.56%    02.85%               408           54.00   { AsKd }
Hand 1:    75.581%     72.73%    02.85%              1376           54.00   { QQ+, 99, 77, 22, AQs, KQs, JsTs, Ts8s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AQo, KQo }

Looks close.

[AlexMartin]

Pot odds question, 155 to win 485.50. So we need about 24%.





  1,892  games     0.015 secs   126,133  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    24.419%     21.56%    02.85%               408           54.00   { AsKd }
Hand 1:    75.581%     72.73%    02.85%              1376           54.00   { QQ+, 99, 77, 22, AQs, KQs, JsTs, Ts8s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AQo, KQo }

Looks close.

But not close enough. Tweak that range a little too methinks. Fold i think, i doubt your A or K is live.

[Longy]

What would you take out of that range Alex?I haven't put in a ridic bluff with air or anything.

[AlexMartin]

What would you take out of that range Alex?I haven't put in a ridic bluff with air or anything.

Deffo not ridic range and pretty sound most of the time. Lots of info here though.
Villain has C/R two oppos in a 3bet pot preflop. I think we can rule out XKs holdings.

fwiw Villain has totally outplayed table here.

[UpTheMariners]

i normally wait for 30 hands before my pahud stats come up but i have noticed him being quite active. ive just checked now and ive played 30 hands with the villian and there running at 50/14/1.5.

[AlexMartin]

i normally wait for 30 hands before my pahud stats come up but i have noticed him being quite active. ive just checked now and ive played 30 hands with the villian and there running at 50/14/1.5.

Wow, ok he has a flush, fold.

[UpTheMariners]

The villain had giving me a 27% chance of winning.

[AlexMartin]

The villain had giving me a 27% chance of winning.

Jesus christ, nice table selection Dan.

[Longy]

i normally wait for 30 hands before my pahud stats come up but i have noticed him being quite active. ive just checked now and ive played 30 hands with the villian and there running at 50/14/1.5.

Wow, ok he has a flush, fold.

This is something I should mention the other day in my PT post. 1.5 aggression factor for a maniac (50/14) pre is actually relatively aggressive.

If you think about it he is seeing a flop with 50% of his hands alot of these will make weak/marginal postflop hands. Alot of top pairs, no kicker, middle pairs which are often better to try and pot control by calling with. Unlike tight players who make alot of big hands more of their range is made up of hand that make overpairs, top pair top kicker type hands that are more likely to bet or raise. These factors affect aggression factor a great deal. Also alot of the time that don't have the emphasis in the hand and will be doing less cbetting and more calling on the flop.

Make sense?

[UpTheMariners]

Alex[/url] Martin link=topic=30288.msg622507#msg622507 date=1199804260]

The villain had giving me a 27% chance of winning.

Jesus christ, nice table selection Dan.

give me resizable tables and a time bank and im there!!