When is it time to start worrying?

[Pyso]

Just a general post, a little abstract perhaps, but I would like to ask fellow blondies how many successive MTTs without cashing, would start to be a concern to you?

I have now played 27 consecutive live tournaments without a cash, and although I have bubbled once and finished just one off the bubble three times (aaaaghhh!), I am beginning to think there might be something wrong with my approach to tournament play.

I have been playing  £20 tourneys mostly (I won't move up whilst I am not cashing at this level, which seems reasonable), usually freezeouts, and the same thing seems to keep repeating -

a)  I rarely go out very early

b)  I usually go out with about 20 - 25 players left

c)  I have been receiving some beats for sure (more than my share) but also misplaying a few key hands just as my stack is starting to dwindle

d)  I have been making some good reads / folds (the ones I have seen at showdown) keeping me in the tournament, but when I have to push later on, I usually run into a bigger hand  (aaaarrrghhh!)

e)   I think it might be variance because I'm not even hitting flops, had I stayed in the hand pre-flop

Am I running too tight? I know I have to accumulate chips throughout the tourney but I am finding this difficult for two reasons - I am particularly card dead in tournaments (I get better cards in cash games) and when I use position against 2 or 3 players, regardless of cards and raise it up, I just get called or re-raised anyway which tends to screw things up a bit.

Is this a particular problem at these price tournaments perhaps?

I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm just crap at MTTs. Or could it just be a bad run? I do much better on the cash tables.

I shall re-read Harrington on Hold'em to see if I'm missing anything but I would like some feedback as to whether this is a run (27 consecutive non cashes) that is normal, or indicative of something being wrong.

I am applying M and 10xBB or less is time to push etc, and I am aware of seeing value flops, but I have to wonder when my Queens get called by 10,7 suited and I am parking my chair under the table....!

Also, my online MTT record is much better, so this may be a live thing.

This is not a moan, I believe in good karma and that if I keep at it, things will improve, but I recognise that I might need to change my approach.

Anyway, I await some comments, hopefully

Pyso

P.S.  Played the Stoke Circus £20 + £2 deepstack tourney last night (..of course I didn't cash) - it's dealer dealt with 8000 chips and seems a good crowd. Well worth the 45 minute trip, even if trying to find the casino was particularly difficult without a map, phone, sat nav, or indeed any idea where it was!

[Jaydeaa]

Wish we could get a dealer dealt tourny for £20 + £2 in the South... Minimum is £100 + £10 in Southend really...

And deepest stack is for the same buy in for 7,500 chips...

£20 + £2 is a rebuy night... And £30 + £3 is a freezeout with 3000 chips...

I need to head up north

[matt674]

63 consecutive online tournaments without a cash is my online record

"temporary blip" is what i put it down to

[Longy]

By the sound of things this is mainly varience, 27 is by no means outside the realms of probability.

As with alot of varience in poker you are probably making mistakes which doesn't help, whether they are fundamental or lacking confidence/tilting as you go through this run is hard to tell. Be honest with yourself, re-reading Harrington doesn't seem a bad idea and maybe post some hands on here or talk to someone who's game you respect.

I have no doubt it will turn around and live mtt's are the worst for this kind of thinking as you don't get to play that many compared to the internet. Also MTT's have massive varience anyway.

Good luck.

[matt674]

Why do you play tournaments?

I do much better on the cash tables.

why not just stick to making money playing cash games?

[TightEnd]

Having had a similar spell Oct-Dec 2007 I can sympathise

From my own perspective I feel that some bad luck/outdraws soon led to bad play and lack of confidence, which becomes a difficult cycle to break

I only did so recently, with a win last week

I spoke to a few peers, posted more hands up on our hand analysis board to double check some stuff and read widely. I also played a few comps below my normal buy-ins (live and online) to try a few things out.


 

[boldie]

I didn't cash in MTT's for sodding ages last year. (Live I always did good though)

27 is nothing if you're playing to win the tourney rather than cash...but you might want to look at the difference between your online style and live-style of play. Live you see less hands and you have to take that into account.

[Pyso]

Thanks TightEnd, Longy, boldie and matt674

I genuinely feel better now. Confidence is a fragile thing...

In response to matt's very sensible question, I play tournaments mainly because I enjoy them and for the same reason I play cash - to make money (hopefully!)

... and we all dream of that big win, don't we?!!!

[gatso]

everything being equal and assuming a 10% get paid structure the odds of going 27 in a row out of the money are only about 16/1 or just under 6%. that's variance for ya.

[Pyso]

gatso,

I'm not being funny, but when you say "that's variance for ya" do you mean, in my context, that because the odds of going 27 MTTs without cashing are 16-1, that the reasons for not cashing must belong to me,

or,

do you mean that variance can skew the odds?

I must be missing something here. Please put me right!!!

[AndrewT]

My biggest dry spell is about 45 MTTs without a cash. Then I won the next one which covered all the buy-ins for those 45 plus quite a bit more.

gatso,

I'm not being funny, but when you say "that's variance for ya" do you mean, in my context, that because the odds of going 27 MTTs without cashing are 16-1, that the reasons for not cashing must belong to me,

or,

do you mean that variance can skew the odds?

He means that, if you are a break-even player, and play as well as everyone else, the chances of you not cashing in your next 27 MTTs is 6%. That is what variance is. Otherwise a break even player who had gone nine MTTs without a cash would be 100% certain to cash in their next event to keep the one cash in ten ratio consistent.

[Snatiramas]

I know players including myself who have gone long long periods of time without cashing at the various levels they play......
This question is a bit like the one I did many many years ago at A Level
"Discuss the causes of the Industrial revolution"

Difficult question....so many contributory factors. Just like your post. Firstly a big up for wanting to sit down and analyse what might be going wrong.

Now here comes the first contrary piece of advice.............stop analysing and start playing. In reading your post you seem to be playing by a book. If you get the urge to push on the first hand then go ahead and do it. In a deepstack tournament raise out of position early. Have some fun with your chips. As you relax the cards will come.
Secondly if you are waiting for good cards then you will be put on a narrow range of hands too easily and therefore probably not win as many chips from your good cards as you might.
Thirdly find your motivation. Is it to win, make money, have fun?
If it is to have fun then there is no problem how long the run is.
If you want to make money then this run is a little alarming. I have just come out of a run that lasted 8 weeks. Couldn't hit a card. If I did I got Dingdelled. Really nightmare stuff. This week I split one tourney and won a satellite in one the following evening. Such is poker. It is always easier to smile when you are winning. I wish you every success in ending this run.

[gatso]

I mean that on a completely level playing field where neither you or any of your opponents has an edge the odds of not cashing 27 times running are about 16/1.

Take it out of the context of a poker tournament and put 10 cards, the ace through the 10 of spades face down on a table and get someone to shuffle them up. Now try and pick the ace. The chances of you not getting it 27 times in a row are also 16/1, not that likely but also not particularly unusual.

Or, back to poker, look at the chances of hitting a 3 outer on the river, again about the same odds. Again not too likely but we all see it happen often enough.

So, 27 in a row is not necessarily that unusual, variance affects us all and much more so in MTT play.

But, don't just put it down to variance, it may be the answer but then again it may not, it may be down to something you're doing wrong.

As with alot of varience in poker you are probably making mistakes which doesn't help, whether they are fundamental or lacking confidence/tilting as you go through this run is hard to tell.

This is very true, once you start to notice a bad run it's very easy to start to adjust your game as the confidence goes, sometimes changing things that don't need changing.

[Pyso]

Thanks, that's much clearer!

I agree, it is probably a bit of both. I am going to go back to school and re-read Harrington first to see if that helps.

[gatso]

ok, don't know where I got that ridiculous example from. This is better.

a)Chances of losing 4 coin flips in a row = 6.25%

b)Chances of not cashing 27 times in a row = 5.8%

not a lot in it but I'm sure you wouldn't find a) to be that strange if it happened even though it's about as likely as b)