Turbo SnG Bubble

[UpTheMariners]

FullTiltPoker Game #4881917928: $110 + $9 Sit & Go (Turbo) (37060253), Table 1 - 400/800 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:05:20 ET - 2008/01/16
Seat 1: chris0388 (6,174)
Seat 2: kozmo820 (980)
Seat 4: DonkeyDingle (2,726)
Seat 9: UpTheMariners (3,620)
UpTheMariners posts the small blind of 400
chris0388 posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to UpTheMariners [  ]
kozmo820 folds
DonkeyDingle folds
UpTheMariners has 15 seconds left to act
UpTheMariners raises to 3,620, and is all in

Is this a bad shove considering that kozmo820 has 1BB and that the chipleader is going to call with a wide range of hands?

[LeKnave]

I like shoving in this spot.  I defo move in.

Il wait for longy to do his magic calculations tho.

[Longy]

I think its shove im abit out of practice to be honest so i might be wrong. Off to check back in a mo.

[Longy]

Yep looks like a shove I doubt he call you particularly wide here something like top 20% i would guess. This would be a +1.0% push against this range making around $10 on average, more than big enough edge.

Its break even if he calls with top 30%.

[MANTIS01]

the chipleader is going to call with a wide range of hands?

I'm not sure about that. It's completely unnecessary for the bb & big cl to call for half his stack with any marginal hand here. If the ss hangs around he can batter the field and get chips the easy way so he wont mind the current situation.

Also because of the ss situation your push does look like a hand...so I think the bb only calls with premium. I think it's a good time to push because while all eyes are on 4th place, you're already thinking about 1st.

[Longy]

Mantis is right, if a5o is at the bottom of your range bb should only call with top 10%. Plus he doesn't want to give up his pwning rights on the bubble which has a bit of equity attached to it. He is still chip daddy after this hand.

[UpTheMariners]

the reason why i said he would call with a wide range is because ive seen him make some dodgy calls and his stats suggest that he's a losing player. often a player will make a bad call which will affect both of us.

[TheChipPrince]

I push all day long, he still needs a hand to call, and especially if you think he may call with any K or QJ...

[Boba Fett]

The BB should be folding AK here, if you have him as a good player the shove is fine, if you have him as a bad player that may call with something like A9/AT or a middle pair Id just give it up and let the SS go out over the next 2 hands

[TheChipPrince]

The BB should be folding AK here, if you have him as a good player the shove is fine, if you have him as a bad player that may call with something like A9/AT or a middle pair Id just give it up and let the SS go out over the next 2 hands

Really? In a satellite maybe, in a normal STT never... Playing for first is crucial...

[Graham C]

Playing for the money is most crucial though. Making the cash is no1 priority.  I tend to go for the cash first, then go for 1st spot.

[temp0r]

if the BB is loose then i fold like a little girl. a decent player has alot of fold equity because theres no need to risk passing us the chiplead here. also a decent player is less likely to think we're shoving a weak ace into them on the bubble because on the surface it looks foolish.. when actually its EV+ against tight players. in this situation i really don't like it though. it really should be about making the money then once you're there start gambling.

[TheChipPrince]

Playing for the money is most crucial though. Making the cash is no1 priority.  I tend to go for the cash first, then go for 1st spot.

If you think the others have the same mentality, exactly the reason to get even more aggressive...

[Longy]

The BB should be folding AK here, if you have him as a good player the shove is fine, if you have him as a bad player that may call with something like A9/AT or a middle pair Id just give it up and let the SS go out over the next 2 hands

I disagree with all of this, no way should the chip leader fold ak here in a month of sundays, you are setting light to at least $10 doing this against even tight ranges. A10,55  is about borderline calls given we can assume that the bottom of Mariners range is around a5o.

[Longy]

the reason why i said he would call with a wide range is because ive seen him make some dodgy calls and his stats suggest that he's a losing player. often a player will make a bad call which will affect both of us.

Given this extra information this looks pretty damn close and given how bad he is, I might find a pass here. You reckon he is calling 30%+ here?