Rotterdam or anywhere

[TightEnd]

there's 7 left in a live MTT and 5 are paid

one is short

you are in a batch of 4 players around 20-30k with blinds of 800-1600

2 chip leaders with 50,000 or so

tight table, your image is...you've guessed it


In the CO you attempt a steal with and raise to 5,000. You have 28,000 total

Passed to the BB, a young Dutchman, complete unknown to you but to date has only shown the goods. Plays his own cards, not his opponents and doesn't play back without something. Under-bets and under-raises quite frequently so suspecting an inexperienced player

He flat calls and has 23,000 total

on the  flop you both check

on the  turn he fires out 5,000 into the 12,400 pot

With a possible 15 outs -diamonds, 4's for the Gutshot and Aces- though the Aces may not be clean outs, you have the odds to call 5,000 into a 17k pot with a view to re-evaluating on the river

So we have a 22,000 pot

BB has 13,000 back

You have 18,000 back

You miss on the  river

BB checks

You can only win by betting


Questions:

- Do you bet against this player?

- Is your betting pattern, in particular the flop check consistent with betting here?

- Do you move all-in or fake a value bet? Say 8k (for example)

- With a check-bet-check pattern from the BB I'm thinking a medium pair, Ax with the x pairing the board. ie a marginal hand that we can take him off. Is that consistent with a range you'd apply here?

TYVM

[ACE2M]

A shove from you just doesn't add up, i'm calling you with any pair. I'd check it down and hope A high is good against a busted straight/flush draw. Why didn't you cont bet? If hes got no moves then the flop is a joy for you.

[TheChipPrince]

Lets pretend you haven't mangled the hand so far, Like Ace says an all-in makes no sense unless you hit the nuts with 45 on the turn... I check, put my tail between my legs and carry on...

[MANTIS01]

Yes, I tend to agree with the other guys here.

The foundation of the problem is your mentality.....

In the CO you attempt a steal with   

I think that once you have got into the mindset that you are "stealing", the pre-flop call leads you to think you have been "caught", and so you shut down. Whilst you can try and dredge a pot win up from the depths on the river it seems a little late for that. And as ACE2M says....a little unconvincing as well.

Much better to raise pre-flop with the mentality that you have the best hand...and you probably do. It is then an easy c-bet on the flop because you have improved by picking up a wheel draw to go with your Ace, and your oppo probably hasn't improved at all. If you do get action the turn is going to be an easy push because you improve further still. So from start to finish you have a reasonable hand that keeps improving. Checking the flop means that your oppo is going to bet a lot of the time....he is taking the initiative because you don't want to, and probably nothing more than that. So check is good for me too on the end.

[AndrewT]

I think that once you have got into the mindset that you are "stealing", the pre-flop call leads you to think you have been "caught", and so you shut down. Whilst you can try and dredge a pot win up from the depths on the river it seems a little late for that. And as ACE2M says....a little unconvincing as well.

Much better to raise pre-flop with the mentality that you have the best hand...and you probably do. It is then an easy c-bet on the flop because you have improved by pricking up a wheel draw to go with your Ace, and your oppo probably hasn't improved at all. If you do get action the turn is going to be an easy push because you improve further still. So from start to finish you have a reasonable hand that keeps improving. Checking the flop means that your oppo is going to bet a lot of the time....he is taking the initiative because you don't want to, and probably nothing more than that. So check is good for me too on the end.

This post is all kinds of brilliance.

Poker, so often, is about mindset - the unconscious preconceptions we bring to the table.

I've been in similar situations to this hand many times before, and have found myself not c-betting. I never realised what I was subconsciously doing until I read Mantis's post - I was treating the hand as a steal that failed, and so that my hand was worthless. Many's the time I push this river and I would always seem to get called by A7 or 88, my hand looking like an obvious bluff.

By convincing myself of the strength of my hand, I don't allow my opponent to tell me he, in fact, believes my hand to be worthless.

[jezza777]

I c-bet the flop and push the turn if called but.

Questions:

- Do you bet against this player?

On the flop yes on the end no.

- Is your betting pattern, in particular the flop check consistent with betting here?

No way it is as fishy as hell

- Do you move all-in or fake a value bet? Say 8k (for example)

Not myself your line has no story to set it up. You could try a post oak for around just over half his stack 6-8k into a 22k pot with him having 13k , might work.

Did you consider pushing over his 5k turn bet?

[TightEnd]

Did you consider pushing over his 5k turn bet?

yes


As the tone of my initial post implies, am trying to rid myself of (yet more) passivity borne of lack of confidence

that probably accounts for the lack of c-bet

hence time for a bit of PHA flagellation and constructive criticism

[LuckyLloyd]

Why open the pot to 5k? My standard here is 4k. You can then c - bet for 5k and make a total play at the pot pretty inexpensive. That being said, it is not a horrible mistake to avoid c - betting here.

If we have identified that he plays a tight range preflop and is playing his cards, there is no reason to think that he won't peel a turn to a c - bet with overcards or flatcall overpairs or stuff like A7, etc. The 5k saved from a failed c - bet gives us FE when we 3 bet shove over opens from our right in other hands - which is the easiest way of amassing chips.

Giving up here against a novice player can't be that bad. And as played I would check behind the river.

There is no need to shove the turn giving the price we are provided by the 5k bet and the 13k he has behind. We just have to make sure that we ship if we hit.

[jezza777]

"With a possible 15 outs -diamonds, 4's for the Gutshot and Aces- though the Aces may not be clean outs, you have the odds to call 5,000 into a 17k pot with a view to re-evaluating on the river"

I think you need to make a plan for what you are going to do. Having odds to call and reevaluate on the river isnt much of a plan imho.( and its horrible weak passive)

The mistake in the hand is not cbetting the flop , if called once the turn drops we should be happy to shove it. Trying to make up for not making a play you should have made on the flop by making a dodgy river play whilst kicking yourself under the table is bad news. A high could be good here.

 

[TightEnd]

put another way then....

if we have identified him as holding a marginal but made hand after the turn..lets say something like A7/A6 or 44 for example   

is flat calling the turn and the re-evalauation on river...bet if checked to (as implied in initial post)....very weak passive?

I do accept, which is why I asked, it doesn't hang together that convincingly in the absence of a c-bet

[AndrewT]

with a view to re-evaluating on the river

Calling 'with a view to re-evaluating on next street' is on a par with betting for information - you don't know where you are in a hand, yet still put money in the pot.

Now that 'betting for information' has been taken down an alleyway and shot in the head maybe the next dose of PHA medicine should be forcing people to think ahead and know what they are planning to do on the river before they call a turn bet.

[TightEnd]

with a view to re-evaluating on the river

Calling 'with a view to re-evaluating on next street' is on a par with betting for information - you don't know where you are in a hand, yet still put money in the pot.

I know I have a combination nut flush and straight draw with more than the odds required to call the turn bet

I've identified to my mind his range.

I think I know pretty much where I am in the hand..the river card then shapes what I can do to win the hand then (re-evaluating)

Mangled or not (don't worry, I am a big lad say what you like!) my question really revolves around whether a bet could win the hand on the end once I've missed

The consensus so far seems to be, as played, no it won't

Let me know when the firing squad's ready 

[ACE2M]

with a view to re-evaluating on the river

Calling 'with a view to re-evaluating on next street' is on a par with betting for information - you don't know where you are in a hand, yet still put money in the pot.

I know I have a combination nut flush and straight draw with more than the odds required to call the turn bet

I've identified to my mind his range.

I think I know pretty much where I am in the hand..the river card then shapes what I can do to win the hand then (re-evaluating)

Mangled or not (don't worry, I am a big lad say what you like!) my question really revolves around whether a bet could win the hand on the end once I've missed

The consensus so far seems to be, as played, no it won't

Let me know when the firing squad's ready 

it might win this time in this spot but overall it's definitely a losing play imo.

This is definitely a spot to get aggressive late on, on every round apart from the river.

[AndrewT]

with a view to re-evaluating on the river

Calling 'with a view to re-evaluating on next street' is on a par with betting for information - you don't know where you are in a hand, yet still put money in the pot.

I know I have a combination nut flush and straight draw with more than the odds required to call the turn bet

I've identified to my mind his range.

I think I know pretty much where I am in the hand..the river card then shapes what I can do to win the hand then (re-evaluating)

Mangled or not (don't worry, I am a big lad say what you like!) my question really revolves around whether a bet could win the hand on the end once I've missed

The consensus so far seems to be, as played, no it won't

Let me know when the firing squad's ready 

I wasn't really specifically referring to this hand in isolation, more the general use of the phrase - it seems to be associated with the situation I describe.

Anyway, in this hand, you aren't really calling to re-evaluate on the river, you're calling to hit your draws. Having missed, you're now wondering what to do, which is different.

[MANTIS01]

is flat calling the turn and the re-evalauation on river...bet if checked to (as implied in initial post)....very weak passive?

Yes I think it is. You raised pre-flop so you put yourself in the driving seat....but now you want to take a back seat and throw the initiative away. Why? Because you want to HIT before you COMMIT. This is brought about because of the lack of confidence you talk about Tighty. You want a sure thing before you risk your chips.....and these lock hands don't come around very often. Even if a diamond does drop on the river your oppo wont be putting any further chips into this pot....so you take all the risk without any potential reward.

You will hit one of your outs on the river, no doubt, and this is why you bet. Your confidence may very well get a better hand to fold along the way or at least you win a big pot when your outs come. Either way betting is good for you.

Not betting, and waiting to hit before moving chips around leaves it too late HU imo. You are a good enough poker player to know betting the river gives you a last chance to win the pot uncontested and so you want to put money in when hope has gone. Whereas betting the flop for all the same reasons....but with hope very much alive, gives your bet/actions even, an air of confidence you just cant recreate on the river.

You will get called by any pair now. Putting money in when you have outs and intiative is much better than puitting money in with neither.