Stars, $30+3, early on, top pair on a drawing board, decision time?

[pswnio]

I like b/f flop and c/f turn.

Hate cr ai on turn, any decent villain is gonna recognise ur hand aint all that unless you have dinged 108/Js9c which are both tiny parts of your range. I guess most average oppos this works a lot.

It doesn't really matter whether he recognises your hand ain't all that, does it? Regardless of what he thinks your hand is, he still needs one to call a raise, and the whole premise of you raising would be that you put villain on either air or a draw.

I wouldn't necc c/r with 53c, though, Longy, even if I don't put him on much. If he IS on a draw, and it happens to be one he calls with, and one of his cards has your 5 beaten if the river is a blank, then you have significantly lower equity than if you have a pair, no?

[action man]

We are not bluffing by CRAI on the turn we are pretecting our hand vs various draws. By CRAI as opposed to making a commited bet on the turn we are giving our opponents the chance to semi bluff the flush draw, which they cannot call if we shove, we are also CRAI to represent a stronger hand than we have.

Again I ask, with the flush draw out, what hand is villain calling on the flop that he can call a CRAI with on the turn with. If villain has AT/KT  then would probably raise the flop, if he has a set likewise. Personaly i like leading the turn and folding to a raise... If he has a set of 88 which is possible then hard lines, he could even have 89c or 96c or some combo draw.

I feel check folding the turn is far to weak. As imo he should raise the flop with a flopped set.

[MANTIS01]

The problem with checking the turn after you have bet the flop is that you simply open the door for your oppo to bet.....and most of the time he will. Because of this it is almost impossible to narrow his range any further than what it was on the flop. And what is was on the flop was any pair, any 2 pair, any set, any draw, or even 2 overs.

A lot of these tournaments are quick paced early doors as the wheat becomes seperated from the chaff. So you give an oppo a sniff that you are weak, or the pot is open to be claimed, and your invitation will almost never be turned down.

I think the flop bet is a good one. You have top pair and for a mere 150 chips you have cut the field down from 5 oppos to just 1. This makes life much simpler, puts you on the front foot in the hand, and gives you a much better chance of winning the pot. After making such good headway why check the turn, it just invites the situation you find yourself in, not knowing where you are or what to do.

That said I don't like your oppos pot bet at this point, it's too big for anything he played softly on the flop. The most likely holding for me is 8-9.

[Longy]

I like b/f flop and c/f turn.

Hate cr ai on turn, any decent villain is gonna recognise ur hand aint all that unless you have dinged 108/Js9c which are both tiny parts of your range. I guess most average oppos this works a lot.

It doesn't really matter whether he recognises your hand ain't all that, does it? Regardless of what he thinks your hand is, he still needs one to call a raise, and the whole premise of you raising would be that you put villain on either air or a draw.

I wouldn't necc c/r with 53c, though, Longy, even if I don't put him on much. If he IS on a draw, and it happens to be one he calls with, and one of his cards has your 5 beaten if the river is a blank, then you have significantly lower equity than if you have a pair, no?

Erm not me you that have quoted. I like Alex would rather c/r 53cc here than j10o, turning hands that have showdown value into bluffs im not a fan of.
 

[pswnio]

Erm not me you that have quoted. I like Alex would rather c/r 53cc here than j10o, turning hands that have showdown value into bluffs im not a fan of.
 

Sorry mate. Meant doubleup.

[pswnio]

The problem with checking the turn after you have bet the flop is that you simply open the door for your oppo to bet.....and most of the time he will. Because of this it is almost impossible to narrow his range any further than what it was on the flop. And what is was on the flop was any pair, any 2 pair, any set, any draw, or even 2 overs.

A lot of these tournaments are quick paced early doors as the wheat becomes seperated from the chaff. So you give an oppo a sniff that you are weak, or the pot is open to be claimed, and your invitation will almost never be turned down.

I think the flop bet is a good one. You have top pair and for a mere 150 chips you have cut the field down from 5 oppos to just 1. This makes life much simpler, puts you on the front foot in the hand, and gives you a much better chance of winning the pot. After making such good headway why check the turn, it just invites the situation you find yourself in, not knowing where you are or what to do.

That said I don't like your oppos pot bet at this point, it's too big for anything he played softly on the flop. The most likely holding for me is 8-9.

SURELY the size of his bet helps you to narrow the range?

I don't like betting the turn. I'm trying to control the size of the pot. If I bet and he calls, there are a lot of cards that will look bad to me on the river, and a check call could prove expensive. I'm wanting really to go into check fold mode. But the SIZE of his bet given the call on the flop smells all wrong. Normally I'd insta-fold this robotically, but I decided to tank for a bit and changed my mind.

Thanks to everyone for their analysis, by the way. V helpful. Most of it points to my play being -EV, but there's been some disagreement about both flop and turn, which is always good.

[action man]

Why is your play -ev

[MANTIS01]

Yes, I agree that his turn bet gives you info. But that said it's early and you don't have much history on your oppo and so the quality of that info can only be speculated at. Even so, I still view his turn bet in the same light as you do pswnio.

Checking the turn to "control the size of the pot" is going to be a tougher strat to prove though.....you are all-in on the turn after you check!. I think betting controls the pot size because it is very unlikely your oppo will raise at this stage.

The problem with checking the turn is that you would normally "insta-fold robotically" to a bet and this means you would be folding the best hand a lot.

[doubleup]

As imo he should raise the flop with a flopped set.

He should but that doesn't mean that he always will, he might put hero on a flush draw and want to see a blank turn.  Normally I would think he would raise KT, QT as well, but you never know, certainly your line would fold out these. 

One question though- when you check the turn, how do you know that he is going to bet?

[action man]

My play wouldn't have been to check the turn, i would have lead the turn. If i decided to check the turn it would be the plan of check/raising. if i had this plan and villian checked behind i would re-evaluate on the river.

[doubleup]

If i decided to check the turn it would be the plan of check/raising. if i had this plan and villian checked behind i would re-evaluate on the river.

But you are giving your "best hand" a great chance of being outdrawn if he checks behind wth his draw which he may well do.  Which might be ok if you are happy to get outdrawn in a small pot.  The thing is though that if I was villain, I would be wondering why you give a hand strong enough to checkraise, a good chance to get outdrawn for the sake of ungauranteed action from me.

[doubleup]

The point is that if you anaylse hero's actions. his checkraise cannot have been planned which oddly enough he admits is the case.

[action man]

My play would have been to bet the turn...

The Checkraise can indeed be planned as imo 85% of the time the villian bets the turn here after we check with any holding.

[doubleup]

My play would have been to bet the turn...

The Checkraise can indeed be planned as imo 85% of the time the villian bets the turn here after we check with any holding.

Why in gods name would you want to lead the turn then if you have the best hand?

[pswnio]

Those who would lead on the turn ... how much would you bet, would you fold to a raise, and if called and a non club, non Q and non 6 hit the river, how would you play it? I'm most interested, I think the turn is a real weakness in my game.

Have just looked at stats and almost certainly not a wholly -EV move. Though am not a stats junkie so may have made a mistake.

If you ascribe range to villain as being any two clubs, any set, any overpair, and any ten with a jack or better (reasonable?), then my JT is a 49% favourite. Incidentally, with 53c you'd be 17% against that range. I'm therefore not at all sure that a c/r all in here is indeed turning a showdown hand into a bluff.

Let's assume that I get called 50% of the time and that 75% of those times I am up against a better made hand.

This means that:
50% of the time I win 900
33% of the time I lose 2500 (am 21% to win 75% of the time and 69% to win 25% of the time)
17% of the time I win 2500

This would make it 50:50.

OK, so it's marginal