A Hand Quiz with a difference

[Gamblor21]

I was talking to the camel before the main event this year... and he said that if he was to get aces in the first level he was just going to move allin!

As he thought it was likely that he could get a bad call for all his chips! I have to agree with him, many players could have called the first allin with qq...

I actually saw something similar this year, from my good friend and movetastic Latif... He is under the gun blinds are 150-300 he moves allin for 10k guy in mid position dwells and calls leaving himself with 8k!

What do they turn over??? LATIF AQoff and MATEY BOY 1010... now this was terrible by both in my opinion, latif catches the q by the way! However TIKAY said that he defo would've called with the 1010!

[Bongo]

cards                 win   %win     lose  %lose      tie   %tie     EV
As    27939   2.04   306055  22.33  1036760  75.63  0.398
Ah   27939   2.04   306055  22.33  1036760  75.63  0.398
  278116  20.29  1086852  79.29     5786   0.42  0.204

If it is indeed 2 pairs of Aces v another pair (in this case kings)

Your EV is ~11950 chips. (30030 * 0.398).

I'm not sure it's worth it but then you can never be sure they have aces, I definately wouldn't want to call with less though.

[Junior Senior]

KK but it would take me at least 4 minutes of chin rubbing and a switch to auto-dwell. I would not pass AA - no way!

[patman]

with no reads and unless i knew anyone.

its as mentioned possible that no 4 is trying to take the pot down pre flop with any kind of mid to high pocket pair or AK. Seat 5 call would worry me as he has to have the goods.....me on that basis i`m playing KK , AA and folding everything else....i`m not that good to get it back later down the line unless i`ve got me james bond specs on.
I have to take the chance to get chips early...being first out would be no worse thanh grinding my teeth into the table for passing KK or AA and seeing it hold up.

[action man]

id play AA and bin KK and hope to see an ace on the flop

[dan]

id never fold aces preflop not even against 3 allins but id might ditch kings but im not sure. if io ran kings into aces on the 1st hand and lost i win nothing if i do the same on the bubble i win the same so i might even go with kings, really unsure

[dik9]

At least if you get busted first hand in the WSOP 2006 you would have two weeks to lounge about waiting for your return flight.

[Karabiner]

I would probably have overselpt (they start the wsop at midday?!?!?) so no worries for me!!


Having said that if i was at the table i call with AA and muck the rest, although i am pretty sure the other 2 hands are AA and KK i take the risk to gain 5k in chips. No-one is a good enough player to pass this kind of edge in a field that big, and i might get lucky enough to be up against KK and KK!!!

I would love to be first out of the wsop and AA all in pre flop as the hand! What a story! Better than "well i made the top 3000"

It's an 11am start actually.

[SupaMonkey]

No, it's NOT a "pass Aces" type question.

But you might ask yourself what the geezer in Seat 4 had to go all-in for 10,000, with 75 chips in the pot, & how seat 5 would have viewed this......

Difficult question...

I would have said that the first guy went all in with aces to try and look weak but you said its not a pass the aces question so maybe...

He went all in with A-k and was petrified of seeing a flop and losing his stack by being outplayed in the first hand (he was thinking that he was 50-50 with anything that called him except aces or kings you see). The second guy clearly sees this as weakness so has probably put him on a middle pair and called with J-J or Q-Q.

I don't think i could bring myself to pass the K-K here, although saying it and doing it are two different things.

Still, i think there is a trick to this question that we're all missing.

[tikay]

No trick SupaMonkey, & no right or wrong answer.

But if I were in seat 5 with ANY sort of hand, I'd have to wonder what on earth Seat 4 was holding. And thats BEFORE we get to seat 7!

[jezza777]

I fold KK in this spot but would call with 67suited . Go hard or go home

[ifm]

are you gonna reveal what your opinion is Tikay?

[snoopy1239]

are you gonna reveal what your opinion is Tikay?

lol - he'd call with J4 off. easy

[Harry Demetriou]

Personally I think that this is a pretty straightforward problem.

If I were holding AA in seat 7 it's an easy call because only one of my opponents could possibly be holding AA like me whilst the other could be holding a lower pair although it is also possible both opponents are holding KK each (however unlikely it may seem) or AK each (again unlikely as I have two of the Aces).

The worst scenario for me would be if each had different lower pairs like KK and QQ because then there would be four outs against me but I still rate to win bigtime in the long run as when I win I triple up in this specific scenario.

Regardless of what the opponents hold when I have AA I still rate to make good money on the all in call.

If I had KK in seat 7 I would have to ask myself what could the other two players have to be prepared to go all in. The very minimum they could possibly have would be AK each in which case I would be happy to call but I can't see that as a real possibility and they certainly do not have AQ each and wouldn't or shouldn't make the play with both of them having pairs below Queens which in themselves would be extemely unlikely. Hence although the first player may conceivably have a gresater range of hands to play this way (AK AA or KK) the second player really cannot have anything other than AA with a remote chance of KK.

Although players are very diverse in the way they play their hands you are kidding yourself if you think that someone would move all in on the first level in an early position without at least a very big hand (AA or KK) and the second player almost definitely has AA (or very remotely KK). In fact I would take evens both the first two have AA which makes your fold with anything in seat 7 an easy one.

Hence you can only conclude that the first player in can only be holding AK or far more likely AA or KK and the second player definitely has KK or AA and very likely AA is the only real option open to him.

As such you really are looking at two of you holding AA whilst the other then has KK and you had better make sure you are holding one pair of Aces in seat 7.

This then becomes a simple math problem

With AA v AA v KK (The second most likely scenario given the betting as the first would be that the other two have AA each)
The AA each win 40% of the time (or 80% between them if we ignore flushes which are the same for both pairs of aces) where you go from 10k to 15k each whilst the KK goes from 10k to 30k 20% of the time. so its an easy call.

With AA v KK v KK
Your AA wins 96.5% whilst the KK's win the remaining 3.5% of the times so the call is again a no brainer.
So bearing this in mind all pairs from KK down have to be folded and non pairs just are not a feasible option.

With AA v KK v AK
AA wins roughly 85%, KK 11% and 4% AK

Calling all in with KK is a non option as you cannot realistically expect your opponents to be both holding AK.

Of course there are some players who go all in with a crappy hand like 72 on the first hand and show it but I have not seen people do this from early position but anything is possible as no info has been given about any of your rivals.

For the maths sake if we had AA v KK v QQ
(Depending on the suits but it makes small differences) the AA win 66% of the time so again you have an easy call as you triple up when you win.

Can't see any grey areas to this answer unless you delude yourself about the hands that your earlier positioned rivals went all in with.

In summary then you clearly call with AA in seat 7 and fold everything else.

Problem is you will most likely die before you find yourself in such a position in real life and are unlikely to ever see it).

[tikay]

Me? I'd fold anything axcept AA in a shot.

But a good player might not.

For me, it (playing in the WSOP) would be an experience to savour, & I genuinely believe I'd have a chance of cashing, though very little chance of winning. (Which is half my problem). And I don't wanna gamble in a 3 way pot at this stage for all my chips, I'd rather "settle" & feel out the table, & try to play big pots on my terms, ideally one on one. The time to gamble is later, imo.

It is possible that I'd have a better chance by gambling, as opposed to trying to outplay folks. But if my - or your - even money shots hold up most of the time, as they do some nights, I can make the money, easy.

But as I'm unlikely ever to play the WSOP Biggie, it's all academic to me.

Anyway, I've retired from WSOP events - I wanna preserve my 100% WSOP cashes record!