Some +EV guidance please

[Pyso]

For the maths boffins out there, can you help?

I am working on my poker maths and it’s a struggle because my arithmetic is pretty basic but I am getting there. I’m more of a words and pictures person but that’s another story. Not to say I can’t do the sums, it’s just not an instinctive, natural, easy skill like it is for some

Anyway,

This is me messing about on the micro tables. I made this play thinking (hoping) it was positive EV because I was forcing the villain to take 1.2 - 1 odds to call my all-in when I was 1.9-1 to win with the nut flush draw with two cards to come; so - although I am the underdog  (and if that's right, by how much ?) with the extra chances of him folding, does this make this a profitable play?

If I have got this completely arse about tit please let me know.

I appreciate that if he had a set on the flop then his odds for housing up would skew my calculations but I didn’t think he had a set because at this level players predominantly tend to slow play them. As it turns out he flopped two pair so he was always going to call but I see a lot of players at the penny limits getting excited about top pair top kicker.

Actually, should it be the two pair more at the forefront of my thoughts here?

I see this sort of shove (like mine) all the time but can someone explain to me in simple terms if this makes mathematical sense. At the time I pushed him all-in the pot was $10.50 and he had $8.65 left.

It's a little ironic that he hit the only heart that could beat my flush but that isn't what this post is about.

> Dealing Hole Cards(  )
> serendib folded
> sp180d9 called for $0.10
> robbos83 called for $0.10
> luckyfish7 folded
> osirus31 folded
> itsmeagain called for $0.10
> wimmorov folded
> Hemingway_77 folded
> Py-so called for $0.05
> evo180 checked
> Dealing the Flop( )> Py-so bet for $0.25
> evo180 raised for $1.25
> sp180d9 folded
> robbos83 folded
> itsmeagain folded
> Py-so went all-in for $14.67
> evo180 went all-in for $8.65
> Extra chips returned to Py-so, $5.02
> Dealing the turn( )
> Dealing the river( )> evo180 shows a Full House, Kings full of Fives
( )
> Py-so mucked


Thanks

[Pyso]

Sorry, ignore the last comment about the river, for some reason I thought it was a heart which it wasn't, it was diamond.. duuurrrrr

[gatso]

I'm somewhat tired at the mo so not going to look at this in too much depth but where are you getting your 1.8 to 1 odds to win from?

I make it that you've got 37.374% equity in this pot or 1.68 to 1

I also make his pot odds different. pot is .50 PF + 1.25 + 9.90 = 11.65 and he has to call 8.65 so his pot odds are 1.35 to 1

[Pyso]

Hi Gatso

I was thinking I was a 1.9 - 1 shot to make the flush with two cards to come ( I was making the assumption the flush would be good here)

I've had another look and just before I put him all in there is 1.90 (the blinds, my flop bet and his raise) in the pot so that is 1.90 + 8.65 = 10.55 giving him 10.55 divided by 8.65 which is 1.22 - 1 odds when he calls.

I think this is right.

Can you tell me how you worked out the 37.374 % equity?

Don't worry, it can wait until tomorrow!

[gatso]

Hi Gatso

I was thinking I was a 1.9 - 1 shot to make the flush with two cards to come ( I was making the assumption the flush would be good here)

I've had another look and just before I put him all in there is 1.90 (the blinds, my flop bet and his raise) in the pot so that is 1.90 + 8.65 = 10.55 giving him 10.55 divided by 8.65 which is 1.22 - 1 odds when he calls.

I think this is right.

Can you tell me how you worked out the 37.374 % equity?

Don't worry, it can wait until tomorrow!

pre-flop there are 5 players x 10c =50c

post flop there's his 1.25 plus your 9.90 = 11.15 so we have a pot of 11.65

my equity% came from running the exact cards through an odds calculator. we can only get this exact figure after the hand though, what we need to do in reality is assign him a range of hands and run them through the calc.

[Pyso]

Thanks gatso, I'm with you now.

So in your opinion did this move make sense?

I feel better about doing it at these stakes if I got the maths wrong!