Lucky 15/31/63s

[totalise]

How much of a mug bet are these things? My local bookie offers treble SP on the one winner, 10% bonus on 4 winners, 15% bonus on 5, and 20% on 6...and on first glance it seems to me that these make it slightly more appealing then seperate bets because of the bonus, but its a bookie, and it looks generous, so there has to be a pretty big catch.


What is it?

[boldie]

How much of a mug bet are these things? My local bookie offers treble SP on the one winner, 10% bonus on 4 winners, 15% bonus on 5, and 20% on 6...and on first glance it seems to me that these make it slightly more appealing then seperate bets because of the bonus, but its a bookie, and it looks generous, so there has to be a pretty big catch.


What is it?

it's a collosal mugs bet. Lucky 15's and yankees and all that non-sense are bookies bets as they are built around people thinking "oooh, if they all come in I'll make a fortune" I don't know any gambler at decent stakes that plays them (other than the occasional small one for a bit of fun or interest on a saturday or big meeting day.

The bookie wants you to put your money into the lucky 15 as it spreads out your money. Rather than have 15£ on one winner you have 1£ on it...yiiipppepee at getting 10% bonus on that.

[totalise]

what i've been doing is having like 6/1 7/1 horses, if one comes in only, you get treble the odds, so about 20/1,and if two come in you lose the 3*odds for the single, but get the double. I know it must be a mug bet, i just couldnt find on the net the math behind it.

[bolt pp]

Any bet that the bookmakers offer with the word "lucky" in it is a mugs bet!

FACT

[barhell]

I'm always up for a lucky bet (any of my winners have to be)

[boldie]

what i've been doing is having like 6/1 7/1 horses, if one comes in only, you get treble the odds, so about 20/1,and if two come in you lose the 3*odds for the single, but get the double. I know it must be a mug bet, i just couldnt find on the net the math behind it.

why not stick 15£ on the one that you actually really fancy?

[totalise]

because I often think to myself "oooh, if they all come in I'll make a fortune"

also I'm waiting on bolt to succesfully do a smash and grab on safeways and give me my share of the profits before I can bet £15 on a horserace.

[bolt pp]

hang on a minute, who said anything about sharing? i'm sorry if i gave the impression that you were on a % and i'm grateful for all the advice you've given me but potentially we're talking about 7-10 big bottles of cider, I just cant see myself sharing that that amount of alcohol with anyone

you'll just have to stick with your lucky15 for the time being and who knows.....................oooooooooh, if they all come in you might make a fortune

[totalise]

this is whats wrong with the world today, you spend your time helping the youth out and they throw it back in your face.

I hope that one day when you are old and wizened, and a young pup comes to you for advice on the nuances of cider-equity-release, they are as cold hearted as you, then you will learn a valuable lesson.

[matt674]

the tipsters tournament on blonde has been running for nearly 2 seasons - thats 30 people giving 6 selections every week for approx 15 different weekends, most claim to follow horses while some of use stick to tried and trusted "where ever the pin falls" methods.

so how many times out of approx 600 attempts has someone managed 6 out of 6..................... zero

how many times has someone come close to getting 6 out of 6................... zero (i think)

i think the bookies are pretty safe offering the 10,15 & 20% bonuses because yes there is someone who gets lucky with his 5 even money shots on a lucky 31 but there are tens of thousands who are lucky if they even get their money back.

[totalise]

right, but you dont need to have all 6 win to make a profit, that would be a straight accumulator.


With any form of gambling that has an inherent negative expectation, there comes a point that if the overlay is big enough, it becomes a +EV proposition... a perfect example of this is jackpot tables in poker... so basically i was wondering as to the mechanics of this type of bet, how its such a mugs bet, and to understand the math a little more to see where a bookies "break even" point might be... because to break it down... singles aren't a mugs bet, doubles aren't a mugs bet, trebles I guess aren't a mugs bet, and are 4 timers a mugs bet? in terms of EV that is.

[totalise]

i think the bookies are pretty safe offering the 10,15 & 20% bonuses because yes there is someone who gets lucky with his 5 even money shots on a lucky 31 but there are tens of thousands who are lucky if they even get their money back.

and as for this, if the horse is a true even money shot, they are laying evens on each bet, on an even money shot, with a bonus to those that choose red 5 times in a row... seems like a reverse martingale to me, so that cant be it... because if you offered this type of bet with a coin, heads or tails, and layed evens on each with a bonus at the end for those that got lucky, you would definately lose a lot of money, so it has to come with the fact that the more bets they take on these tickets, the more it plays into their 130% or so overrounds i think, i just cant figure out exactly how yet.

[bolt pp]

most peoples perms are for small money and i think you'll find it's almost uniquely a recreational punters bet so when people are getting treble the odds about their 2/1 winner for 10p it's not that significant, if you factor in how many punters dont bother collecting the silly amounts the bonus they offer isn't anywhere near reducing the -EV of the punter.

bookmakers love taking bets with the word "lucky" in them, it's true that one week they may have to pay out £3400 to 86 year bill who does he's lucky 15 every week but bills still massively down on the bet over his life and the bookmakers have taken how many tens of thousands this week on these bets already.

Theres no edge in this bet if for no other reason than the bookmakers are still laying it, thats all you need to know!

[matt674]

singles aren't a mugs bet, doubles aren't a mugs bet, trebles I guess aren't a mugs bet, and are 4 timers a mugs bet? in terms of EV that is.

gambling on anything where you have no control whatsoever on the outcome is a mugs bet.

but then life would be boring otherwise

[totalise]

singles aren't a mugs bet, doubles aren't a mugs bet, trebles I guess aren't a mugs bet, and are 4 timers a mugs bet? in terms of EV that is.

gambling on anything where you have no control whatsoever on the outcome is a mugs bet.

but then life would be boring otherwise

no to the former, yes to the latter.