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Author Topic: Set a line on this bet  (Read 2458 times)
totalise
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« on: May 20, 2008, 09:56:10 PM »
What odds would you suggest is fair on the following bet:

Person A is a very heavy smoker. Person B wants to bet that Person A cant go a month without having a solitary cigarette.

My initial reaction was something around 20/1.. but thinking about it, that seems quite low

thoughts?
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jizzemm
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2008, 10:00:29 PM »
30-1... first few days might be easy.. last 21 will be solid..
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B/FsCousinKev
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2008, 10:30:41 PM »
If person A drinks go for 50's
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Colchester Kev
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2008, 10:34:01 PM »
jeees tough one, i suppose it depends on the amount, if someone laid me 20/1 on not having a cig for a month and let me have 200 quid on, i wouldnt smoke one cos the money would make me do it ... if i could only have a fiver or tenner on, i would probs cave in and pay up.


so its a real tough one to put a price on imo, i can see why you are struggling.
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2008, 10:41:43 PM »
does Person A have a stressful life/job?  any other vices?
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totalise
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2008, 10:46:53 PM »
yeah i was thinking about the amount, if person A only wanted to bet £5, then you could offer 100/1 and be confident they would crumble because the addict in them would rather lose out on £500 then go a month without a smoke. I guess to improve the question, we can say what odds would you lay if someone wanted to bet:

£10
£50
£100
£500
£1000
£5000

BfsKev, person A drinks, and he drinks almost every night!! maybe 100/1 !!

jizzem, you really think the first few days might be easy? I'd have thought they would easily be the hardest.

tightend, Person A has a very easy life... no real worries. He does a fair bit of gambling, but only for moderate sums of money
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B/FsCousinKev
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2008, 10:56:05 PM »
In this case, I think you could offer an extremely high price and have peace of mind your money's secure Smiley
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bolt pp
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2008, 08:35:44 AM »
Quote from: B/FsCousinKev on May 20, 2008, 10:56:05 PM
In this case, I think you could offer an extremely high price and have peace of mind your money's secure Smiley

 

If they drink whatever price you like
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jizzemm
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2008, 08:40:48 AM »
Quote from: totalise on May 20, 2008, 10:46:53 PM

jizzem, you really think the first few days might be easy? I'd have thought they would easily be the hardest.


Only from personal experience yes, I have stopped twice now, and started again twice, first week was piss easy, after that struggle struggle struggle..
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TheChipPrince
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2008, 01:59:23 PM »
25/1...
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2008, 03:25:15 PM »
i would say its ess than even money

someone offer me a bet not to smoke and i will accept it
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2008, 04:50:23 PM »
Your price should include a factor for how easy to monitor them cracking or not is.
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