Hand Late in an mtt last night

[action man]

Notes on player were, pretty tight ABC had 3bet me once previously and id 4-bet jammed JJ and lost v his KK. When he flatted me pre i kinda narrowed his range down to mid pairs and AJ/QK type hands.

PokerStars Game #18682585912: Tournament #94741694, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (4000/8000) - 2008/07/14 - 20:36:59 (ET)
Table '94741694 12' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: RiVeRs HoMe (658184 in chips)
Seat 2: ThEcLaiMEer (256265 in chips)
Seat 4: Lustcarr (577431 in chips)
Seat 7: Swansen (541583 in chips)
Seat 8: Mixclusive (165302 in chips)
Seat 9: ioalou (416780 in chips)
RiVeRs HoMe: posts the ante 800
ThEcLaiMEer: posts the ante 800
Lustcarr: posts the ante 800
Swansen: posts the ante 800
Mixclusive: posts the ante 800
ioalou: posts the ante 800
Mixclusive: posts small blind 4000
ioalou: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ThEcLaiMEer [ ]
RiVeRs HoMe: folds
ThEcLaiMEer: raises 12250 to 20250
Lustcarr: calls 20250
Swansen: folds
Mixclusive: folds
ioalou: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
ThEcLaiMEer: bets 32000
Lustcarr: calls 32000
*** TURN *** [ ] []
ThEcLaiMEer:

[action man]

what is everyones plan going into the turn we have 200k left.

are you;

check/calling
check/raising
check/folding
bet/calling
bet/ folding 

and why?

[maldini32]

Oooooooh i remember this hand! An absolute stinker. Did he tell u what he had after he got knocked out Rick?

[Rupert]

c/c then c/c to let him bluff and value bet worse.  obviously if the rivers a 9 ill prob c/r or donk it depending on reads

[I Am Willis]

im check/raising to see where i am imo

[Rookie (Rodney)]

im check/raising to see where i am imo

Are you folding if you check raise and he shoves?

[DungBeetle]

No sure you can check raise here, as it becomes a check shove. Pot is 121k and if he leads, he will lead for 80k I'd imagine, and it's not like you can min raise leaving 40 behind and then fold.

If your read on how he plays is correct (and he wouldn't get cute with a big pair), it's looking an awful lot like a set, or even TT because there is no flush draw to be hanging around with if he has a suited AQ/AJ.  Dunno - it's a tough one.  I might be pretty lame, and check fold unless he makes it really cheap, as you still had 200k so a decent amount to work with.  Based on what your say on the player, 88 might be the only hand you are beating right now.

Quite a bit here for me depends on the payout structure.  If it's pretty flat for a while would be a lot more tempted to chance my arm.


Tough spot all in all.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

He cannot be flat calling the flop with TT/JJ and possibly QQ.... This would be yuck.

KK/AA seem likely here, otherwise flopped set.

He could of course be floating here, I think I prob lead for 65k and if he ships them in I reluctantly fold with tourney still in tact.

[DungBeetle]

But previous time the villain had KK he re-raised pre-flop, so unless he's varying his play, seems more likely he has midpair or 2 big cards this time.  I'd classify TT as mid pair, and wouldn't necessarily re-raise with it in his position, unless Hero has been raising light.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

Didn't read initial comments tbh.
Was just going with no notes.

Some players do mix it up tho you know! And trigg is known to raise light.

[MANTIS01]

I don't think you want to let this pot get out of control and so I don't mind checking. Not really with a view to giving up on it but more to see what he does. I think the info you get from your oppos bet size (if he does indeed bet) is going to be of a better quality to determine his hand than the you bet he shoves scenario. You put 65k in, he shoves, you fold, is not the best use of 65k imo because you will never get better hands to fold. Checking the turn allows worse hands the chance to bluff, you get to see the river for maybe less than 65k/maybe free, you get better info. I think I like this best because the board itself isn't a worry. He's either got it or he's floating and pumping another 65k only gets you losing money when he has it, and he probably has it.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

I don't think you want to let this pot get out of control and so I don't mind checking. Not really with a view to giving up on it but more to see what he does. I think the info you get from your oppos bet size (if he does indeed bet) is going to be of a better quality to determine his hand than the you bet he shoves scenario. You put 65k in, he shoves, you fold, is not the best use of 65k imo because you will never get better hands to fold. Checking the turn allows worse hands the chance to bluff, you get to see the river for maybe less than 65k/maybe free, you get better info. I think I like this best because the board itself isn't a worry. He's either got it or he's floating and pumping another 65k only gets you losing money when he has it, and he probably has it.

 But putting another 65k in means you take his chance away to bluff you (90%) of the time...

Pot is big enough now to take down..

You check, he bets 65k what do you do?
You check, he bets 85k, what do you do?
You check, he bets 100k, what do you do?

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: Rookie (Rodney)

But putting another 65k in means you take his chance away to bluff you (90%) of the time...

If you take away his chance to bluff you then how are you going to make money from the hand on those occasions where you do have the best of it and thus turn an overall profit from this sort of situation generally? If you bet again into a floater he will prob fold. If you bet into a set you lose those chips and may face a shove. So you would only bet on this dry board to get better hands to fold, which wont happen, or for value. Yes he could have 4's, 5's or 8's and will call a value bet, but it's just as likely that he has a set or over pair and so betting is just setting yourself up to play an expensive pot.

The pot might be big enough to take down but can you take it down by betting? and why would you want worse hands to fold when the chances they'll improve are rather slim? I would call a 65k bet and prob push a 100k bet. Close though Rookie and I'm not saying you're wrong.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

The reason I am betting is to try and make the most easy way out of what is now a tough situation.

Betting out again will not force out any better hands tofold, i agree. It just stops the risk of us going broke to better hands - by check shoving, and stops the risk of us being bluffed, by check folding.

I don't get why you would want to check call in this spot at all tbh... But each to there own!

[MANTIS01]

The reason I want to check call is I think it is likely whoever has the best hand right now will have the best hand at showdown. Betting gives any hand we beat right now the easy way out of this tough situation not us imo. I'm not sure I want out just yet anyway. Only worse hands fold if we bet, but I don't want worse hands folding. I want them to take a stab for the 65k I was just about to put in anyway and also I deny them the chance to raise me off the hand. I want the pot to stay within the realms of how likely I am to have the best hand. I see the chances as fair but not great, so I don't want the pot to get too big. Betting allows all hands to inflate the pot by raising whether they beat us or not. This works better in context to how I play because if I raised with 4-5 pre I would c-bet the flop and check the turn as well.