He probably has an overpair, but does it matter?...

[MC]

This one is from a while back but I caught a similar hand online recently that reminded me of it (online hand was no brainer this one wasn't)



GUKPT Main Event, and it's still quite early, 200/400 blinds

UTG is a typical tight player and has only shown down premium hands, he just doubled up with an Aces v KK and is on perhaps 15,000

I've been playing steady, not too tight, not too passive, but have only won small pots...11,000 stack

UTG opens for a raise to 1400.

In the hi-jack I flat called with pocket 88s. No other callers.

The flop comes 567 rainbow...

UTG leads out for 3000

You're think it's fairly likely he has an overpair. He might raise AQ and AK here but probably checks in your opinion. But obviously you've got 10 outs even if he's flopped a set.

What do you do?

[Newmanseye]

I dont think you can flat call, Its either a shove or a fold.

Few things to consider first, your line on the opponent is TAG showing big hands, possibly has a set.

The rest of the table, can you easily fold this hand and continue to find good spots and take chips from others?

Do you want to take a gamble?

have you seen the opponent make a fold to a shove after a C bet?

The cards in this hand make it a good situation for a powerplay semibluff.

I dunno if I am shoving or folding here.

[celtic]

im shoving!!!

[Royal Flush]

Fold pre

[Newmanseye]

Fold pre

Why James? 

I would probably fold too but purely because of the EP raise and the players image.  Why are you folding?

[celtic]

Fold pre

Why James? 

I would probably fold too but purely because of the EP raise and the players image.  Why are you folding?

im guessing because if ur debating folding on a 567 flop then u should just fold pre.

maybe wrong tho.

[Royal Flush]

Fold pre

Why James? 

I would probably fold too but purely because of the EP raise and the players image.  Why are you folding?

Nah those are the things that nearly make it a call, his range is quite narrow.

The problem is calling 1400 out of 11k to hit a set, its just too high a price.

As for the flop i probs flat, if he has AA/KK this will probably scare the shit out of him and he might well check the turn fearing you have a set.

[AlexMartin]

Fold pre

Why James? 

I would probably fold too but purely because of the EP raise and the players image.  Why are you folding?

Nah those are the things that nearly make it a call, his range is quite narrow.

The problem is calling 1400 out of 11k to hit a set, its just too high a price.

As for the flop i probs flat, if he has AA/KK this will probably scare the shit out of him and he might well check the turn fearing you have a set.

agree w flush.

this is so an obv fold pre MC, u getting such a shite price. Ur lucky u hit such an awesome flop which allows you to shove as a combination play.

even with 16k and him covering you pre, its prolly STILL a fold. He's a nit ffs.

[EvilPie]

Fold pre

Why James? 

I would probably fold too but purely because of the EP raise and the players image.  Why are you folding?

Nah those are the things that nearly make it a call, his range is quite narrow.

The problem is calling 1400 out of 11k to hit a set, its just too high a price.

As for the flop i probs flat, if he has AA/KK this will probably scare the shit out of him and he might well check the turn fearing you have a set.

This means that you're only getting 8 to 1 on your 1400 to hit your set. Without a set you're not going anywhere with this hand so you've not got the odds to do it.

Before you go set mining you need to check all the stacks you're up against and your own to make sure that if you hit you have the potential of making at least 12 to 1 on your money. In this instance you can't

As for this flop with these cards I probably shove. If you're a bit deeper you can get clever but I can't see many options. Might be worth a flat like flushy says because the slow play looks uber strong. Problem then is what to do on a blank turn if he shoves which is likely. You're not folding after flatting the flop so you might as well commit now and give him a chance to fold a better hand.

[MANTIS01]

On the spot I would be leaning towards discounting A-A, K-K and sets. A tight UTG raises to 1400 pre-flop and this looks pretty strong for one of the top pairs. Not saying 1400 is very strange or anything but he is going to be wanting action. He is tight, has just shown Aces, is UTG and is betting 1400. With these things in mind I think 1200 is looking way strong as it is so there would be no need to go 1400. Then on a rainbow flop he bets 3k into a 3.4k pot and this is again on the way strong side for proper strength. He is betting like a third of your stack and so knows you aren't continuing here most of the time. What's the best way to combat that?

His betting pattern would lead me to say he has 9-9, 10-10, or J-J. Will he fold these hands if you push? I think this is entirely read dependant so I don't know. Generally I don't think he will fold one of these hands if you push so I think your FE is quite low. And folding 8-8 would make you feel like wtf did I call pre for. So calling seems to be the most interesting play. He knows you're not floating so what reason would he give himself to push a blank turn?

You have an oppo really firing at this pot and so just calling is indeed going to rattle him. Absolutely sure just calling 1/3 stack will slow him down and you will find him checking a lot of turns. At this point if you bet like half your remaining stack you will look so ridic strong he will be boggled. I think you have much more FE on a checked turn than a shoved flop. On a blank turn if you bet 4k leaving yourself slightly less behind what on earth is UTG going to do with 10-10? He knows your bet is all-in in installments. If you're putting all your chips in anyway this way looks more convincing than the everyday flop all-in that any decent player is going to be facing every time he plays. As a bonus you could hit one of your outs.

Of course this is not an ideal situation and a very risky strat, but it also quite good fun. And I think it gives you the best chance of winning the hand against a tight thinking player now you are actually involved in it.

[Royal Flush]

Mantis i don't get why 1400 looks like it can't be AA/KK, rocks tend to make all their raises 7xSB and there is a running ante afterall.

[MANTIS01]

Mantis i don't get why 1400 looks like it can't be AA/KK, rocks tend to make all their raises 7xSB and there is a running ante afterall.

He could have one of those hands. But he's just doubled through with A-A, so looking down to see another A-A puts him in dreamland. It also gives the tight UTG player a dilemma. He knows everything about his raise will look so strong and his chances of getting business will be limited, so I think he would be raising at the lower end of his range. All the factors including his chosen amount look aggressive. Link that with his really aggressive pot bet on a dry flop and it just doesn't look like one of those big hands to me. His aggressive and forceful strat looks more like 10-10 to me. I would say A-K as well but the op discounts this.

Anyway, even if he does have A-A it only gives credibility to the calling strat if you decide to play the hand, because if you push he isn't folding.

[Royal Flush]

Mantis i don't get why 1400 looks like it can't be AA/KK, rocks tend to make all their raises 7xSB and there is a running ante afterall.

He could have one of those hands. But he's just doubled through with A-A, so looking down to see another A-A puts him in dreamland. It also gives the tight UTG player a dilemma. He knows everything about his raise will look so strong and his chances of getting business will be limited, so I think he would be raising at the lower end of his range. All the factors including his chosen amount look aggressive. Link that with his really aggressive pot bet on a dry flop and it just doesn't look like one of those big hands to me. His aggressive and forceful strat looks more like 10-10 to me. I would say A-K as well but the op discounts this.

Anyway, even if he does have A-A it only gives credibility to the calling strat if you decide to play the hand, because if you push he isn't folding.

This is a GPT the standard is dreadful, trust me he didn't just double up and think ooh i can raise light now, he is too busy stacking chips!

More likely he seen a big pair, just won a big pot and is happy with his situation, not sure how much to make it so does his usual live donk bet pot (excluding antes) now he flops overpair he is just trying to win the pot.

If this was online or a tough field i might agree but this is a live comp with a relatively high buyin and poor players, this usually means super strength UTG is super strength.....

[action man]

i diasagree mantis, this looks smack like KK AA to me.

[MC]

Thanks for the opinions. I agree a lay-down preflop was in order here.

Mantis your evaluation is interesting. I hadn't really thought about the flat call. I think I always play to see a river card in this situation, and didn't want a face card to drop off on the turn incase I had the best hand. But I like this play better really, I hadn't thought about how strong it looked as opposed to how weak it might look. And if my assumptions are correct, he's not folding to a shove.

My thought process in the hand was that there is a really slim chance he might have AK, he wasn't beyond C-betting here, but I just didn't get much of that feel. I also thought he might fold nines and tens. I thought the possibility of these hands meant a shove was okay being almost 40% to an overpair.

So I shoved, he called, he wasn't hugely thrilled about it, kinda like "I have to"

He tabled QQ

Blankety Blankety Blank and I'm busted.

I guess it being so likely he was raising only with mega-premium hands this was an unnecessary point to play 88s.