Odds Question

[snoopy1239]

Let's say you are playing a 6-handed $1/2 cash game and have raised it up to $7 with a small pocket pair. You are then 3 bet. What figure does the 3 bet need to be for us to have the right odds (pot and implied) to make the call given that (1) no one else is in the hand (2) he is guaranteed to stack off if you hit your set (3) both players are sitting with a max of $200?

Also, and in the same context, how about 9-8 suited and hitting a minimum of two pair, also taking into account that you will get it all in if you flop a flush draw?

[EvilPie]

Let's say you are playing a 6-handed $1/2 cash game and have raised it up to $7 with a small pocket pair. You are then 3 bet. What figure does the 3 bet need to be for us to have the right odds (pot and implied) to make the call given that (1) no one else is in the hand (2) he is guaranteed to stack off if you hit your set (3) both players are sitting with a max of $200?

Also, and in the same context, how about 9-8 suited and hitting a minimum of two pair, also taking into account that you will get it all in if you flop a flush draw?

If condition 2 is met and he is guaranteed to pay you in full then my understanding would be that pot odds and implied odds are the same.

You normally want at least 12 to 1 implied odds on your money to look for sets to take in to account that you might not get paid and also that occassionally your set will be beat.

However if you're definitely getting the max then my thinking would be that you need 8.5 to 1 which is the approximate odds against flopping a set.

Therefore:

Assuming the reraiser isn't one of the blinds the most you can win is $203 which is the blinds plus doubling your $200 that you started with.

divide this by 8.5 you get about $24 which is the maximum amount you can call.

So if he raises to $31 you can call.

Situation 2 is a bit more complex. You can work out the odds easy enough against flopping a winning a hand but if you add in the fact that you may stack off with a flush draw that is only 30% to hit then you will need better implied odds to account for how many times you are going to lose your $200.

This is a bit beyond me so it's over to the guys with the big calculators.

[Woodsey]

I normally work on 10-1 for set value, just for a bit of leeway.

The second isn't so straight forward. I'm not a big fan of this situation HU in a 100bb game. For me the stacks need to be way deeper and it needs to be against a player you know has a hard time laying a big pair down, you also miss alot more often and won't always get paid when straights and flushes come out so 2 pair for you is often the best scenario for you here which can of course be counterfeited. I would also prefer to play them in multiway pots for a bit of value.

May not be the best way mathmatically, just my preferences.

[Woodsey]

Just to add aswell if you do think they have a big pair and won't lay it down I'm not sure shipping on a draw is the best scenario as you will do your bollocks in the long run, people seem to sniff out the big overbets as draws way too often these days.

[AlexMartin]

I normally work on 10-1 for set value, just for a bit of leeway.

The second isn't so straight forward. I'm not a big fan of this situation HU in a 100bb game. For me the stacks need to be way deeper and it needs to be against a player you know has a hard time laying a big pair down, you also miss alot more often and won't always get paid when straights and flushes come out so 2 pair for you is often the best scenario for you here which can of course be counterfeited. I would also prefer to play them in multiway pots for a bit of value.

May not be the best way mathmatically, just my preferences.

I agree w woodsey. Id prolly bump it up to 14-1 when though playing decent aggressive players, you simply dont stack them often enough (because their ranges are so wide and weaker). Id say importance order and factors to consider are like......tightness of player(obv tighter they are more likely i am to call), aggressiveness of player (really want a proper tAG to have the high pp), position (obv much easier to stack them ip by manipulating pot size), quality of player (prolly least criteria for me, pretty hard not to stack off w overpair in a 3b pot HU).

Id guess......

If they make it 24 from our 7 open i prolly fold 22-77 oop v good solid players and 100bb stacks. Too hard to play hu and get little value. Need to be 140bb+ to start taking shots.
V a Lag probs call 66+ and 3b pre,  c/r flop, donk lead some flops to claw back some EV to my line. Not playing for pure set mining anyway.
V a proper 100 nit tag i sometimes call, mainly fold unless i am 100% sure they have aces/kings (eg they 3b my utg open).

[Moskvich]

Yes, number two is obviously a lot more complicated - but I think for the first step you need to decide what the question is... If you're going to get it in with a flush draw then presumably you think you've got some fold equity (or else it's clearly a bad idea). But if you've got fold equity then you don't necessarily need to flop a winning hand.

I think I found/worked out some sort of answer to this once, but I can't really remember where/how/whether my brain just exploded and I gave up. The approximate answer though is that you need pretty big odds for it. I'd guess somewhere in the region of 20-1. So if you've got 100bbs and the 3-bet is anything approaching a standard size, you haven't got odds to call. Though obviously you can sometimes call or do some funky 4-bet for - wait for it - metagame reasons.

[snoopy1239]

Does position affect you decision in these situations guys, in particular with the suited connectors? Are you much more likely to call a reraise of, say $7 to $22 if you are reraised by the small blind?

[DaveShoelace]

Does position affect you decision in these situations guys, in particular with the suited connectors? Are you much more likely to call a reraise of, say $7 to $22 if you are reraised by the small blind?

I think its paramount with the suited connectors, but I think you can get away with playing the small pp out of position because you are playing fit or fold with that, whereas you hit the flop more often with the connectors but less hard. Also, if they are stupid you can just donk out with the set and get them to do the rest for you.

I guess you can make a case for calling a small blind 3bet slightly more often with suited connectors because sometimes hitting one pair is ahead of their range too, or you can bluff them out of the pot more easily. But the problem with that is you are playing these hands to crack a big hand not to win a small pot and you'll often not be up against something strong enough to pay you off when you do hit hard. Id sooner play them, in position, against someone I think will stack off and is usually either a donk or an early position raiser.

[bolt pp]

Implied odds the most important factor for me, the higher they are the less i worry about pot odds.

[snoopy1239]

Does position affect you decision in these situations guys, in particular with the suited connectors? Are you much more likely to call a reraise of, say $7 to $22 if you are reraised by the small blind?

I think its paramount with the suited connectors, but I think you can get away with playing the small pp out of position because you are playing fit or fold with that, whereas you hit the flop more often with the connectors but less hard. Also, if they are stupid you can just donk out with the set and get them to do the rest for you.

I guess you can make a case for calling a small blind 3bet slightly more often with suited connectors because sometimes hitting one pair is ahead of their range too, or you can bluff them out of the pot more easily. But the problem with that is you are playing these hands to crack a big hand not to win a small pot and you'll often not be up against something strong enough to pay you off when you do hit hard. Id sooner play them, in position, against someone I think will stack off and is usually either a donk or an early position raiser.

The problem with that though is that they seem to almost always continue bet a three bet for, say, $40 whether they have hit or not, meaning that even if you have hit your pair, you're probably going to have to fold a sometimes winning hand. Or do people flat call the cb if they have 8-9 and hit an 8 high flop?

[EvilPie]

Does position affect you decision in these situations guys, in particular with the suited connectors? Are you much more likely to call a reraise of, say $7 to $22 if you are reraised by the small blind?

I think its paramount with the suited connectors, but I think you can get away with playing the small pp out of position because you are playing fit or fold with that, whereas you hit the flop more often with the connectors but less hard. Also, if they are stupid you can just donk out with the set and get them to do the rest for you.

I guess you can make a case for calling a small blind 3bet slightly more often with suited connectors because sometimes hitting one pair is ahead of their range too, or you can bluff them out of the pot more easily. But the problem with that is you are playing these hands to crack a big hand not to win a small pot and you'll often not be up against something strong enough to pay you off when you do hit hard. Id sooner play them, in position, against someone I think will stack off and is usually either a donk or an early position raiser.

The problem with that though is that they seem to almost always continue bet a three bet for, say, $40 whether they have hit or not, meaning that even if you have hit your pair, you're probably going to have to fold a sometimes winning hand. Or do people flat call the cb if they have 8-9 and hit an 8 high flop?

If you flat call here you are inviting over cards and another chance to be put to the test. If you hit top pair you need to be putting the other guy to the test be raising him and being prepared to shove if necessary.

You have to assume you're ahead here so if you're flatting it's to trap so you've got to be prepared to go all the way. You can't flat this and then be scared if an overcard comes because that's almost 50 50. If that's the case you should fold to his c bet. Now's your chance to win a vulnerable pot so take it.