Is this a good spot to shove? (STT)

[thetank]

Blinds : 25/50
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8 players
[SB] samiesa (1095)
[BB] Robdog1969 (1900)
[1] nitroeve (2175)
[2] Tezcatlipoker (1935)
[3] Bradmeister (1705)
[4] uhohthozo (1965)
[5] cinci4life88 (1395)
[But] HERO (1330)

HERO : : Initial Pot: 75

nitroeve folds
Tezcatlipoker folds
Bradmeister folds
uhohthozo raises to 150
cinci4life88 calls 150
HERO calls 150
samiesa folds
Robdog1969 folds
### FLOP ### : : : Pot: 525
uhohthozo bets 350
cinci4life88 folds
HERO???


this is the first game I've played with uhohthozo. It is not the first time uhohthozo has raised pre-flop so he could conceivably be making this move as a continuation bet with overcards.

Is there enough chips in the pot for me to risk my stack?

[Longy]

Fold pre, fold flop.

You don't have enough chips to set mine and given you got about the best flop for 7's w/o a 7. You still unsure of your action tells me that playing it for pair value isn't happening either.


A tight player betting 350 into two players and being the original raisor you got shown a better hand than 7's too often imo

[thetank]

In the actual hand, I folded the flop because I wasn't sure.



How much would the PFR need to be for you to call pre-flop with 77 in this spot?

[Longy]

I go by the 15 to 1 rule for implied odds, so both stacks would have to be at least 2000 for me to call here

[TheChipPrince]

Pre-flop shove out of the question?  375 to pick up there?

[thetank]

Noooooo

[Longy]

Pre-flop shove out of the question?  375 to pick up there?

Ugh leaving the squeezing with marginals to the mtt boys.

The payout structure encourages preservation of chips over going for the win, plus this is uhoh first raise.

[TheChipPrince]

this is the first game I've played with uhohthozo. It is not the first time uhohthozo has raised pre-flop so he could conceivably be making this move as a continuation bet with overcards.

The payout structure encourages preservation of chips over going for the win, plus this is uhoh first raise.

Not sure what u mean Longy?

[Longy]

this is the first game I've played with uhohthozo. It is not the first time uhohthozo has raised pre-flop so he could conceivably be making this move as a continuation bet with overcards.

The payout structure encourages preservation of chips over going for the win, plus this is uhoh first raise.

Not sure what u mean Longy?

Reading comprehension ftw, still don't like shoving for the first reason stated.

[MC]

I def think if you're folding sevens on this flop, then you shouldn't call pre.

He probably continuation bets AK and certainly bets a flush draw (not that you want him to have a flush draw obv).

I think shove the flop or fold pre.

[Charlie44]

I def think if you're folding sevens on this flop, then you shouldn't call pre.

He probably continuation bets AK and certainly bets a flush draw (not that you want him to have a flush draw obv).

I think shove the flop or fold pre.

Totally agree. Now you've called pre and other caller folded imo - shove all in - is the best option. This is the best textured flop you could reasonably hope for. He could well have AK - AT, KQ KJ given his short history of preraises/continuation bets. Other feasible hands are pocket pairs AA - TT and 88, but statistically much more likely to have 2 high cards (about 73%). I doubt he has a 9.

If he is going to folds 2 overcards to an all in its worth betting remaining 1180 to win pot of 875. If hes going to call with 2 overcards even better as you approx 74% fav. If hes got an overpair you need to pray for the miracle 7.

[Royal Flush]

but statistically much more likely to have 2 high cards (about 73%).

?

[ShatnerPants]

I def think if you're folding sevens on this flop, then you shouldn't call pre.

He probably continuation bets AK and certainly bets a flush draw (not that you want him to have a flush draw obv).

I think shove the flop or fold pre.

 

[Charlie44]

but statistically much more likely to have 2 high cards (about 73%).

?

I appreciate that my assumptions may be open to dispute but I got to 73 % as follows -

Pairs AA, KK, QQ, JJ , TT and 88 = 6 x 6 combinations = 36

High cards AK, AQ AJ, AT, KQ, KJ - 6 x 16 combinations = 96.

Total combinations = 132.

High cards = 96/132 =73 %

[Rupert]

The payout structure encourages preservation of chips over going for the win

You realise this makes more of an argument for shoving pre than folding pre don't you.

Shoving pre is far superior to any option here.