ICM- Using software (3k post)

[Longy]

Longy

Having great fun on SnGwiz, and learning a lot too. Thanks for you the suggestion.

Just one observation . I managed to get 49 out of 50 on the easy level of quiz. However I think the knowledge about the likely calling range of each player helps a lot. In reality it's unlikely that you will be able to asses likely calling range anywher near as accurate as this. Do you agree ?

Yes in game there is no way that anyone knows that a player is pushing a given % but we can make a good guestimate alot of the time and then adjust our push/call ranges to that.

Also the fifure of equity if you pass and equity if you fold I assume is the %age of prize money. Is that right?

Yes, when you say pass i assume you mean push.

Any more educational posts coming up soon ?

By the way I'm now officially a junior member (over 50 posts). Do I get a medal or something ?

No more plans for posts coming up, though if someone requests i write about something i know something about i will do it. To be honest we might struggle to find another "poker" subject that im confident writing about. What about FA Cup finals since 1970?

Silo Graham does the medals on blonde, ask him.

[Charlie44]

Thanks for all the advice so far Longy. Another situation Im having trouble with is on the button. I had the following situation in quiz mode and am difficulty in reconciling in my mind that it is an easy pass when I judged as easy push.

As I tend to be reasonably mathematically minded I calculate whether a sitution is cash ev+ first, as follows:

Hero    1874 chips  -      Holding JTo           25 ante
Button 3888          calling range 5.3%        25
SB       1437                           13.0%     225
BB       6301                           32.0%     425

Total pot                                              675.


If push and all fold win 675.

Likelihood of nobody calling = 94.7% x 87 % x 68% = 56%.

So to be equal ev have to loose 675 x 56/44 = 859 on average when somebody calls.

To loose 859 on average with a stack of 1874 you would have to loose 859/1874 = 46% more than you win. I.e win 27% loose 73%.
You certainly win more than just 27% with JT against BB who is calling with 32% of hands. So easy +ev in cash situation.

Some situations are so clear you dont need so much calculation. So for instance if the likelihood of nobody calling was 80% (instead of 56%) then hero would have to loose 675 x 80/20 = 2700 when somebody calls. He cant loose that much he doesnt have that many chips - so its a push with any 2 cards.

By the way is there a tool which will tell me e.g what range of hands would JT only win 27% of hands?

Do you agree with my calc. if it was cash situation ? It seems to obtain the right answer in the majority of cases excpet on the bubble.

Can you advise me how I can translate this into the bubble situation ? How do you get the right answer ? Is it by mathematical calculation, memory of different situations or experienced judgement ?

Your advice would again be much appreciated.

[Longy]

My first reaction to this hand is that it is a pass but it would be quite close. This is mainly through experience knowing this, the main factor being the bubble factor, getting called in this spot is a really bad thing. Especially given there is another shortie who is likely to bust just before us, which makes a big difference that sb has to make a move before us.

As for the calculations cEV (chip ev) is pretty inadequate in this situation as the difference cEV and $EV is as big as it gets on the bubble. Therefore whether a shove is cEV is really neither here or there. Only a $EV calc like in my ICM by hand post is satisfactory here but that is in effect what sngwiz is doing for you.