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Poker Hand Analysis
Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Topic: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT) (Read 3922 times)
Longy
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #15 on:
September 21, 2008, 03:50:23 PM »
Flat the turn, shoving is super spewy here imo.
Regarding the river it would depend how much bb bets but if he shoves the river I would fold. Very few people are going to bluff off their whole stack in this spot.
«
Last Edit: September 21, 2008, 06:31:25 PM by Longy
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Rupert
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #16 on:
September 21, 2008, 06:29:10 PM »
where on earth is this deduction that hes going to bet big on the river coming from
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TheChipPrince
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #17 on:
September 21, 2008, 07:10:12 PM »
Call, call a smallish bet on the river, fold if he shoves...
PS, when they min bet way under the pot on the turn, they usually do it on the river too, ie, for a cheap escape...
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thetank
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #18 on:
September 21, 2008, 07:12:42 PM »
I'm pretty sure the shove was a bad play.
It burns me coz I hate min bets, they're pointless. Only this one ended up having a point.
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WYSINWYG
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #19 on:
September 21, 2008, 08:01:09 PM »
I frequently min bet in and out of position when I'm very strong, works a treat. Induce induce.
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Moskvich
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #20 on:
September 21, 2008, 11:44:30 PM »
Quote from: Rupert on September 21, 2008, 03:10:41 PM
Quote
the only problem (or the main problem) with calling is that he'll most likely put you all-in on the river
wat
just call and keep the pot small, lol at even considering bloating the pot in this spot. i also think checking the flop is a reasonable option but bettings ok
Think I go for the flop check too, keeping the pot smallish unless I improve. Would be happy to bet or call one street on turn or river depending to an extent on the board, but more than this is probably too much for your middle pair and threatens to bloat the pot to the point where you're playing for stacks with a marginal hand and little idea of where you are. Checking flop may let him make a draw for free but in general it probably loses you little value if you're ahead (especially as it might prompt him to have one stab with air) and pretty much makes it impossible for you to get stacked - as someone else said, villain's not going to double-barrel bluff off the rest of his stack, particularly with the shorty there, so you get to stay in control.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #21 on:
September 22, 2008, 11:35:35 AM »
Posted by: Longy
Quote
Flat the turn, shoving is super spewy here imo.
That's quite a bold statement to make Longy. If villain has diamonds shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has Q-10 shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has a Jack (particularly Q-J/A-J) shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has any other hand then shoving the turn is not super spewy. In fact shoving the turn when there is more in the pot than you have in your stack is never super spewy, especially because villain's calling range is limited to a King. And saying a villain you know nothing about MUST have a king because he bet 300 is pure fantasy, unless of course you know villain has a king because Tank said he did.
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WYSINWYG
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #22 on:
September 22, 2008, 12:16:59 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on September 22, 2008, 11:35:35 AM
Posted by: Longy
Quote
Flat the turn, shoving is super spewy here imo.
That's quite a bold statement to make Longy. If villain has diamonds shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has Q-10 shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has a Jack (particularly Q-J/A-J) shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has any other hand then shoving the turn is not super spewy. In fact shoving the turn when there is more in the pot than you have in your stack is never super spewy, especially because villain's calling range is limited to a King. And saying a villain you know nothing about MUST have a king because he bet 300 is pure fantasy, unless of course you know villain has a king because Tank said he did.
And even with a King, maybe not even a call then (his kicker was an 8, you both had big stacks, the other guy didn't, and your play to that point could have reasonably been trip Kings or better).
You try to build up a general picture of an opponent, this guy looks a bit weak passive, and the guy in that general picture doesn't seem to min-bet-induce too often, maybe the OP saw it that way too.
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Longy
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #23 on:
September 22, 2008, 01:10:36 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on September 22, 2008, 11:35:35 AM
Posted by: Longy
Quote
Flat the turn, shoving is super spewy here imo.
That's quite a bold statement to make Longy. If villain has diamonds shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has Q-10 shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has a Jack (particularly Q-J/A-J) shoving the turn is not super spewy. If villain has any other hand then shoving the turn is not super spewy. In fact shoving the turn when there is more in the pot than you have in your stack is never super spewy, especially because villain's calling range is limited to a King. And saying a villain you know nothing about MUST have a king because he bet 300 is pure fantasy, unless of course you know villain has a king because Tank said he did.
The point is not what his range is for making that bet, but what actually is achieved by shoving and what that does to his range. Unless we believe opponent is poor and will stack a worse hand than a jack here, we are turning our hand into a bluff. Why you would want to turn your hand into a bluff im not sure, we have plenty of showdown value.
Fwiw i misread the op and thought this hand was on the bubble, so i will just say i think shoving is spewy. Not super spewy.
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ShatnerPants
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #24 on:
September 22, 2008, 02:13:29 PM »
Fwiw I thought the min bet was with either a Kx with a small kicker, or Jx with two diamonds.
The push over the top is good if he's likely to put down a better hand than yours, which is down to your read on him.
But otherwise you're probably behind, and you're opening yourself up to a whole lot of pain.
He's either going to see the shove as mega strong, or a semi bluff/ bluff.
Either way, unless you are damn sure he's likely to put it down, I can't see the benefit of a push. You've got some decent shown down value if you can get there cheaply.
And you've got plenty enough chips that you can put it down if the river is dodgy, and he shoves at you. Even if he bluffs you off the pot, where's the shame in that?
All that means is it's cost you 300 chips to teach you how to play him next time he tries it, and you've got AK waiting for him.
Sometimes it seems to me that everyone tries to win every pot ( I'm probably worse than most at doing it ) And I'm often telling myself that in many cases it's patience that wins in the long run, not daft aggression.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #25 on:
September 22, 2008, 02:35:49 PM »
When the pot in the middle is greater than the stack you have left you are not turning your hand into a bluff when you push, you are protecting your made hand from being outdrawn. I would push A-K rather than call 300 for the same reasons.
The most important point is this. If you think your oppo has a king what possible reason would you have for calling his turn bet?? Calling the turn even if it is only 300 is super super spewy imo because what are you hoping for? You can't win. And then again if you don't think your oppo has a king why would you call the 300? Let's just rule out calling the 300 shall we because it is senseless!
On the river the pot will be about 5k and your oppo will have about 3k. I think your oppo will bet all-in on the river a lot because the pot size makes that action worthwhile. No matter what people think 5k in the middle means the showdown wont be "cheap" because he pushes 3 kings as easily as he pushes a missed draw. If a diamond comes you could easily lay down the best hand. If an Ace comes you could easily lay down the best hand. If a 9 comes you could easily lay down the best hand. If a Queen comes you could easily lay down the best hand. You give your oppo an open invitation to bluff you on lots of river cards by calling his turn bet. In fact he can push all-in on a brick river just because your turn call looked so weak and you could easily lay down the best hand. If he does complete a genuine hand on the river you could have prevented it by moving all-in yourself.
Let's say a brick hits the river and he bets 1.5k into 5k with a King. You will pay this off because you have "showdown value". So by only calling the turn rather than pushing you possibly save yourself 1.5k in the end, but you allow every draw to get there and you invite any worse hand to bluff you off the pot. This just isn't worth 1.5k. This is 3-handed with a ss in play and 2 pair on a drawing board isn't as marginal as people are making out.
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WYSINWYG
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
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Reply #26 on:
September 22, 2008, 02:59:03 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on September 22, 2008, 02:35:49 PM
The most important point is this. If you think your oppo has a king what possible reason would you have for calling his turn bet?? Calling the turn even if it is only 300 is super super spewy imo because what are you hoping for? You can't win. And then again if you don't think your oppo has a king why would you call the 300? Let's just rule out calling the 300 shall we because it is senseless!
You can't know he has a king, he might have a king, and the percentage likelihood of him having something else makes it worth calling the 300 in a pot that big.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #27 on:
September 22, 2008, 03:09:20 PM »
Posted by: WYSINWYG
Quote
You can't know he has a king, he might have a king, and the percentage likelihood of him having something else makes it worth calling the 300 in a pot that big.
You can't know he has the king but you can know he's going to bet the river. And what are you going to do when he bets the river? You need to sort that out before deciding your turn action imo.
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ShatnerPants
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #28 on:
September 22, 2008, 03:11:59 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on September 22, 2008, 02:35:49 PM
When the pot in the middle is greater than the stack you have left you are not turning your hand into a bluff when you push, you are protecting your made hand from being outdrawn. I would push A-K rather than call 300 for the same reasons.
The most important point is this. If you think your oppo has a king what possible reason would you have for calling his turn bet?? Calling the turn even if it is only 300 is super super spewy imo because what are you hoping for? You can't win. And then again if you don't think your oppo has a king why would you call the 300? Let's just rule out calling the 300 shall we because it is senseless!
On the river the pot will be about 5k and your oppo will have about 3k. I think your oppo will bet all-in on the river a lot because the pot size makes that action worthwhile. No matter what people think 5k in the middle means the showdown wont be "cheap" because he pushes 3 kings as easily as he pushes a missed draw. If a diamond comes you could easily lay down the best hand. If an Ace comes you could easily lay down the best hand. If a 9 comes you could easily lay down the best hand. If a Queen comes you could easily lay down the best hand. You give your oppo an open invitation to bluff you on lots of river cards by calling his turn bet. In fact he can push all-in on a brick river just because your turn call looked so weak and you could easily lay down the best hand. If he does complete a genuine hand on the river you could have prevented it by moving all-in yourself.
Let's say a brick hits the river and he bets 1.5k into 5k with a King. You will pay this off because you have "showdown value". So by only calling the turn rather than pushing you possibly save yourself 1.5k in the end, but you allow every draw to get there and you invite any worse hand to bluff you off the pot. This just isn't worth 1.5k.
This is 3-handed with a ss in play and 2 pair on a drawing board isn't as marginal as people are making out.
I agree with WYSINWYG, the call for 300 chips is anything other than senseless. I don't see it as being as simple as 'Either he's got a king or he hasn't' A king is definately in this range, as are many other holdings. To me, going broke here with ss on 5xBB is senseless. I know big hand big pot, small hand small pot is an oversimplification, but there are times when it makes sense.
Surely this is one of them. You have the perfect position to control the pot size. You've got a gazillion xBB, so you can look at the river, and then decide.
This particular 2 pair is pretty much only mid pair, though. With a crap kicker to boot. And it's the ss that defines for me, at least, the old risk reward ratio stuff that James Browning used to rattle on about ( Anyone see anything of James, nowadays btw ). And to risk 10 % of the payout for 300 chips is fine for me.
You never know, if the flush hits, I might even be tempted to represent it for a small bet ( ok maybe not , but it might slow villain down as well )
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ShatnerPants
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Re: Help, he's min bet me on the turn (STT)
«
Reply #29 on:
September 22, 2008, 03:13:46 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on September 22, 2008, 03:09:20 PM
Posted by: WYSINWYG
Quote
You can't know he has a king, he might have a king, and the percentage likelihood of him having something else makes it worth calling the 300 in a pot that big.
You can't know he has the king but you can know he's going to bet the river. And what are you going to do when he bets the river? You need to sort that out before deciding your turn action imo.
Normally i'd agree with you, but for less than 1/2 % of our chips I think we can afford to spew 300 before finalising our decision
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