misclick flop bet, now wot do i do on turn?

[AgentChip109]

dont have hand history as is on a different computer

$22, 6 handed rebuy on ftilt, down to final 6 from 224 starters. blinds are 2000/4000/500. i am currently in 4th place wiv about 130k and its folded to me on button.

i feel i am prob best player at table and have been able to outplay most of opponents. the two chips leaders have been calling raises from bb and leading out a lot, not just against me but against other players, i have sometimes folded but sometimes picked up some nice pots. so in essence this hand was played out a bit differently

Edgy811 (me, button, 130k) raises 10,550 wiv 
bb (290,000) calls

pot 26,100

flop 

bb checks, now i go to bet 16,750, but i accidently mis click and end up min betting 4000

bb calls, turn 

pot 34,100

bb checks i bet 22,750, bb check raises to 69,000

wot now? should i be betting this turn card or checking behind? as played, are u calling/going all in?

thank you

[boldie]

after misclicking a flop like this he's not going to believe your turn bet no matter what you bet, I'm ussually tempted to check the turn when it's checked to me.

as it is he could have anything here really..not a lot of which you are beating...fold now

[MC]

I guess your main problem here is the chance he is only making this raise because of the weak bet on the flop.

I think because you misclicked the flop, you should check behind on the turn cos you are liable to get raised, and you have reasonable showdown value.

Personally I think there's too much chance he has air or a 5 or 6 here. This raise doesn't look like an "I want a call, raise" to me.

An overpair or a stronger seven raises your bet on the flop...a full house smooth calls...

He could have a straight I guess, but he might even raise the flop you bet so small to get some cash in there...Personally I'd say he's got a four or you have him beat.

On my evaluation, there's more chance he has not much of it, so I shove all-in.

[Charlie44]

To me the clue is in previous actions. You mention that previously he has been leading out after the flop. He didn't this time even though this is a good flop to bluff on. This looks suspicious and indicates to me has a very good hand. Lots of hands come to mind  45, 57, 68, 77, 55 . He probably puts you on 2 high cards and is waiting for you to catch up.

Fold imo. I think you're probably behind and could well be drawing dead.

[MANTIS01]

Yes, I think checking behind is the right choice. Certainly it is a better choice than moving from a min bet on the flop to a 3/4 pot bet on the turn when the 2nd 4 drops. By making this bet a street too late your strat looks crazy and there is little wonder your oppo reacts with a raise. I would be aware that by trying to make up for your first mistake and betting too heavy too late when a harmless 4 hits you are only making a further mistake, and it is a bigger one than your first. I would prefer checking the turn now and then calling the river bet. If you're going to bet, then bet like 8k....at least you will look consistent.

As played, you are behind the pace at the table as it is, and because your strat has very much invited a re-raise I am prepared to commit to the hand now. I think the re-raise is big for a 4 so your oppo can easily have over cards with clubs or a 5-6 type hand and is just trying to buy the pot with a semi-bluff. I mean his strat doesn't exactly tell a story of massive strength either tbh.

[EvilPie]

You're ahead. Shove.

Charlie44. Do you always assume the worse? Not having a dig or anything but the previous actions and more so the turn action don't suggest any of the hands you put forward as possibilities.

MC has it spot on imo. He thinks he's winning now and doesn't want you to catch up if you have overcards.

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

BB's defending range is pretty wide, due to final table/6-handed, your LP raise etc.

He is calling that min bet with his ENTIRE range. No pair or pair he's not folding nada.

he c/r bluffs u with a 6's/FD's and air a ton, and there aren't many 7's that he calls outta the BB with. T7s/97/K7s/A7 but thats small portion of his range.

Shoving is +EV. (calcs wud be nice to prove it)

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

I made some basic assumptions in these calculations, so they won't be perfect but you can see that it's pretty much +EV shove

He's defending light, 30% of hands mostly with connectors/lower pairs/Axs and all kinds of hands

He c/c's the min bet with 100% of his hands, either to float, slowplay for value or get to a cheap showdown. But noone is folding anything to this small a bet in comparison to the pot.

Of those 30%range, villian c/r's with 24.4% of hands, whether it be for value or semi-bluffing with overcards and/or draws

If you shove over his raise, villian will call with 41% of the range that he c/r'sd with. (mostly made up of pair+draws, and most made hands)

So 59% of the time he folds and we win the pot.                     125,850 x 0.59 = + 74,251 chips

Of the 41% that we're called.........................

76% of the time we will win the showdown                              402,250 x 0.76 = + 305,710
24% of the time we will lose the showdown                             402,250 x 0.24 = - 96,450

Conclusion: Shoving gives us  positive expection of  283,511 which is approx. 71bbs which is huge.

Sorry if this is complex tried to simplify.

[Longy]

I made some basic assumptions in these calculations, so they won't be perfect but you can see that it's pretty much +EV shove

He's defending light, 30% of hands mostly with connectors/lower pairs/Axs and all kinds of hands

He c/c's the min bet with 100% of his hands, either to float, slowplay for value or get to a cheap showdown. But noone is folding anything to this small a bet in comparison to the pot.

Of those 30%range, villian c/r's with 24.4% of hands, whether it be for value or semi-bluffing with overcards and/or draws

If you shove over his raise, villian will call with 41% of the range that he c/r'sd with. (mostly made up of pair+draws, and most made hands)

So 59% of the time he folds and we win the pot.                     125,850 x 0.59 = + 74,251 chips

Of the 41% that we're called.........................

76% of the time we will win the showdown                              402,250 x 0.76 = + 305,710
24% of the time we will lose the showdown                             402,250 x 0.24 = - 96,450

Conclusion: Shoving gives us  positive expection of  283,511 which is approx. 71bbs which is huge.

Sorry if this is complex tried to simplify.

Im struggling to get to grips with your calcs but the first thing when getting an answer in maths, you make sure it makes sense, this answer makes no sense imo. We are 35ish bb deeps and heads up to the flop yet we have a positive expectation of 71bbs erm that is impossible.

I also doubt we win this showdown 76% of the time when we get called more like 24/76 the other way round.

Hope this doesn't sound too harsh as you seem to have quite a lot to contribute to pha and blonde as a whole.

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

please do not say no offense to me i really don't care about offensive stuff

i tried to make it as simple as possible so sorry if you dint get it

and the pot would be 71bbs if he call our shove. Like you said we are 35bbs deep. Plus the 35bbs he has to call, plus the small blind .5 a bb = 70.5bbs(jus rounded)

And against the range i assigned e.g. pair+draws, overcards+FD's etc, where he has odds or w/e we are in fact 75% to win at showdown. That does include the full houses too

[Longy]

please do not say no offense to me i really don't care about offensive stuff

i tried to make it as simple as possible so sorry if you dint get it

and the pot would be 71bbs if he call our shove. Like you said we are 35bbs deep. Plus the 35bbs he has to call, plus the small blind .5 a bb = 70.5bbs(jus rounded)

And against the range i assigned e.g. pair+draws, overcards+FD's etc, where he has odds or w/e we are in fact 75% to win at showdown. That does include the full houses too

Ok it is ironic you don't understand ev given your name. We can only possible have a positive expectation of around 35bbs in this hand, DUCY? That is assuming we win every showdown and bb never folds to our shoves (meaning we would make less than 35bbs).

The reason i don't understand your calculations is that they are wrong.

1) There is no way he folds 59% of the time when it is only 25k more to call into a pot of over 200k. Hell he can profitably call with overcards, he fold less than 20% of the time if im being generous.

2) Pokerstove the ranges ( I have put in some random hands, if you would like to assign a range let me know)

 6,204  games     0.005 secs     1,240,800  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    53.054%     48.76%    04.30%              3025          266.50   { 8d7h }
Hand 1:    46.946%     42.65%    04.30%              2646          266.50   { KK+, 88-22, A6s, KcTc, QcJc, J6s, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A6o, KTo, Q5o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o }

3) The 2nd part of your calc you have not times it all through by 0.41, as this occurs only 41% of the time.

4) Where the hell does 402, 250 come from this pot is never going to be that big, unless Full Tilt are adding something to the pot. Heros stack is 130k preflop, so we can only win about 150k approx.

Welcome to pha.

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

{ KK+, 88-22, A6s, KcTc, QcJc, J6s, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A6o, KTo, Q5o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o }

lol at "Ok it is ironic you don't understand ev given your name"

but i do understand it just tough hand to work out

This range is slightly wrong. KK+ 3bets pre, 22-33 doesn't call our shove, along with Q5o/J6s/64o+/54o/A6o not defending very much


And not sure where i got 400k from, will prob try again

Thankyou for welcoming me to the site and this forum btw

[Royal Flush]

I can see some fun PHA hands coming up!

Longy it's -EV mate not to be confident in your ability to triple up in a HU pot....

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.008%     31.92%    06.09%              2795          533.00   { 88-22, AcTc, Ac9c, A8s-A6s, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcTc, Kc9c, K8s-K6s, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Q8s, JcTc, Jc9c, J8s, Tc9c, T8s-T7s, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, ATo-A7o, K7o, T8o-T7o, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 1:    61.992%     55.90%    06.09%              4895          533.00   { 8d7h }

45.5% he folds winning us a 219,550 pot.            That makes +143,146
54.5% he calls then.........
38% we lose a 267,000 pot                                That makes - 101,460
62% we win a 267,000 pot                                 That makes +165,540

we have expected value of + 207,226

Thinking so changing my name to ThatsSoPlusEV

So tough and time consuming to work these things out but i'm sure this proves a point. how can we be a 3-1 dog to his range if you think he calls all of his overcard combos?

[Longy]

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.008%     31.92%    06.09%              2795          533.00   { 88-22, AcTc, Ac9c, A8s-A6s, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcTc, Kc9c, K8s-K6s, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Q8s, JcTc, Jc9c, J8s, Tc9c, T8s-T7s, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, ATo-A7o, K7o, T8o-T7o, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 1:    61.992%     55.90%    06.09%              4895          533.00   { 8d7h }

45.5% he folds winning us a 219,550 pot.            That makes +143,146
54.5% he calls then.........
38% we lose a 267,000 pot                                That makes - 101,460
62% we win a 267,000 pot                                 That makes +165,540

we have expected value of + 207,226

Thinking so changing my name to ThatsSoPlusEV

So tough and time consuming to work these things out but i'm sure this proves a point. how can we be a 3-1 dog to his range if you think he calls all of his overcard combos?

Sigh i can see me and you are going to have some fun on here.

Lets start with the bits i agree with, range seems fine and the pot sizes are correct now.

Aaaand the bits i disagree with.

What 45% of the prescribed range above does villian fold for 8 to 1 ish odds.

The bits i disagree with 0.45 * 219550 = 98797.5.

The 2nd part of the calc we have time this all through by 0.55 as this happens 55% of the time, you calcs are based on this happening 100% of the time (which ironically is more likely than 55% of the time imo).

The answer makes no sense again we cannot possibly win 207226 in this pot on average.