US Election betting - long post.

Read only if you are very bored. Skip to the last line if you just want my selections.

Anyone who reads my blog will have noticed I have a disproportionate interest in the US election considering I'm not American. My reasons for this are a bit personal and wishy washy so I won't bore you with all that...but my endless hours following the campaigns has led to a couple of good wagering opportunities if nothing else. So anyway - this is a cut and paste from my blog.

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I made the mistake of drinking Red Bull and eating spicy food when I got home tonight so I'm a little bit wired and need to babble on about stuff for a while to calm me the fuck down. So let's discuss how I believe things will go tomorrow....obviously everything written from this point on assumes that no massive voter fraud on a Zimbabwean level occurs.

For betting in-running purposes the chronology of the election ought to look something like this:

6pm - Indiana and Kentucky polls close. Within the hour Kentucky will be called for McCain, Indiana will be too close to call (we're being pessimistic here..Indiana may just be called for Obama)

7pm - McCain will be up 8-0 on Obama in Electoral College votes.

7pm - Polls close in: Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.

Vermont ought to be called for Obama pretty soon. South Carolina & New Hampshire will be too early to call and Virginia and Georgia will be too close to call. This puts McCain at 8, Obama at 4 in Electoral College votes.

7:30pm - Polls close in Ohio, West Virginia.

Ohio will be too close to call, West Virginia too early to call. Some time before 8pm the news dudes will probably call South Carolina for McCain and New Hampshire for Obama. That puts McCain at 16, Obama at 7 EC votes. Virginia, Georgia and Ohio will be too close to call.

8pm - Polls close: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

This here is where things get interesting and CNN pundits really start going to town on their huge plasma touch-screen TV's and gadgets and toys. Some of them may pass out with all the excitment. Almost certainly the guy on CNN will climax.

McCain will be projected to win the following states: Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee - Mississippi will be too early to call because they cain't count too good down theyaaah.

Obama will be projected to win states: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania will be too early to call (only cause it's quite big), Florida too close to call (pessimism here again, only cause of the trouble this state usually causes the good guys).

That puts the race now at 99-43 for Obama at about 8:15pm Eastern Time.

At 8:30pm - McCain will be projected the winner in West Virginia & Mississippi. And the Plasma screen guy will have regained consciousness and downed a sugary drink.

So the following states will be too close or too early to call if they count slow and we're being pessimisitc: Indiana, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania.

At 8:29pm, right before Arkansas and North Carolina polls close, Obama will be at 99 electoral votes, McCain at 54.

8:30pm - Those polls close: Arkansas is called for McCain, North Carolina is too close to call (pessimism again). Obama stays at 99, McCain is at 60.

8:45-ish - Pennsylvania is awarded to Obama and Georgia called for McCain. Obama is now at 120, McCain at 75.

Too close to call states now currently; Indiana, Virginia, Ohio and Florida.

Shortly before 9 Eastern Time, Virginia is called for Obama. Obama now stands at 133, McCain at 75.

9pm - Loads of polls close in loads of states.

McCain is projected the winner in the following dumb incest riddled farming states:

Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska
Texas
Wyoming

Obama is projected the winner in the following intelligent clever people states and Wisonsin:

New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

South Dakota & New Mexico are too early to call, Arizona and Colorado are too close to call. At this point the experts start to discuss whether McCain can lose his own State of Arizona. There is fist shaking and finger wagging. Meanwhile, Obama's lead in the electoral college balloons to 188-132.

9:30-ish pm - New Mexico is called for Obama, South Dakota for McCain. That puts Obama at 193, McCain at 135.

Indiana is then projected for Barack Obama!! People gasp and a woman faints. Talk now turns to how America is on the brink of making history by electing an African American President. Someone mentions Rosa Parks. Obama leads 204-135.

The states yet to be called:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Colorado
Missouri

Right before polls close in the western half of the country, the news dudes will project Obama as the victor in Colorado. Obama now leads 213-135.

Polls then close in 5 states. McCain is projected the winner in the following:

Utah a place populated by people who think Jesus came from outta space.

Obama is projected the winner in the following:

Iowa, where I think Radar was from in MASH.

Montana, Nevada and North Dakota are too close or too early to call.

Obama now leads 220-140. McCain is rumoured to have gone missing having not returned from the bathroom...McCain staff members over hear him saying he's going out for a walk and maybe sometime. Obama camp announce their man will speak once California's votes come in or when he's finished his jig-saw.

At this point, three hours after polls closed, Ohio is called for Obama. Joe the Plumber escapes to Canada. Two and a half hours after polls closed in Florida, it is called for Obama as well. Thousands of the States elderely Jewish populace are seen attempting an exodus to Cuba on inner-tubes. With both states won, Barack Obama now sits at 267 electoral votes, three away from 270.

Right before 10pm, McCain is projected the winner in North Dakota and Montana. Obama is then declared the winner in Nevada, putting him over 270 electoral votes at roughly 9:50pm Eastern Time.

A huge gust of wind blows over the country extinguishing the fires in California and freshening up the horrible stench from George W. Bush's 8 years in the White House as the entire globe breaths a sigh of relief.

The cable news networks flash up graphics announcing Obama as the 44th President of the United States except at Fox news where they pull out the power cables and exit via a tunnel to make their escape to Venezuela.

10pm - Polls then close in 5 states.

McCain is projected in:

Idaho

Obama is projected in:

California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

Arizona is also finally called for McCain.

And at 10:15 EST, Obama has 349 electoral votes, McCain 160.

Around 10:30, North Carolina is called for Obama. And around 11:00 Eastern Time, Obama is projected the winner in Missouri, not that it matters.

Alaska, an hour later, is declared for McCain.

Obama wins 375-163.

McCain finally returns to his head quarters explaining he was out looking for his dog Mr Puddles and asks if anything has happened while he was gone. He is given gas and air on his way to the Emergency Room after Cindy McCain explains how things have progressed. He regains consciousness again several hours later only to lose consciousness immediately after asking the same question about the election's progress. Eventually he is relocated to a secure unit where he will be spoon fed and only given soft crayons to write with.

Obama then gives a speech that is replayed around the world for the next few days and we all begin the process of forgiving the United States for the last eight years and collectively working at unraveling the Gordian Knot George Bush tied the globe in.

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As I explained earlier, I actually think Obama will win Georgia and even John McCain's home state of Arizona which are currently being offered up at something like 3.9 and 4.5 respectively on Betfair. McCain made the mistake of not campaigning in these places or any "red-states" assuming they were safe. They were far from safe and it's too late now to do anything about it.

Obama to win Georgia 3.9 - NAP
Obama to win Arizona 4.5
Electoral College votes won - 351 or greater 1.81