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Poker Hand Analysis
Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
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Topic: Live MTT. Respond to turn push. (Read 5500 times)
GreekStein
Hero Member
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #15 on:
November 24, 2008, 05:30:40 PM »
We'd be unlucky not to be ahead here.
If Villian has a set gg wp but we already know Villain opens liberally with paint so KJ KQ K10 are possibly in his range and we have all these combos fairly crushed. After a (pardon my terminology) gay minraise on the turn he could very well shove any of these hands as well as bluff raise combo draws QxJx10/78clubs.
Occasionally he'll have googled us with K9 or something which we've kind of invited on ourselves by not repopping it pre. He can have AK too in which case you scream 'FREEEEEEEEEEEEROLLLLLLLLLLLL' and put the 4 of clubs in his eye.
Another thought is that by the way Hero played this hand (i.e a little scared) I'm thinking it may have been obvious to others that this was the case and hence Villain realises that he can push you off a huge range of hands. Not that I'm advocating bluff shoving on rocks when they minraise me but this super move is in the arsenal of a lot of live players.
In summary, I call.
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Laxie
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #16 on:
November 24, 2008, 05:37:44 PM »
Thanks for all the comments so far Lads. I'm the 'Hero' Tighty's post relates to. We've chatted a bit about it and he suggested getting other views.
Some more info. on me:
Yes the buy in is out of my league. I wouldn't be there only for winning the seat.
I'm not frightened by buy ins once I have the seat won and I never think about the potential prize until we get closer to the money. Don't like counting chickens before they're hatched. Would rather concentrate on playing 'ABC' poker up to that point.
As for Villain:
It was nearly a race to see who could get his chips first. Any suited cards were great, face cards were OMG and suited face cards...he nearly had an orgasm when he got those.
My thoughts on the hand:
I flat called the pre-flop raise saying I'd see the flop and decide what to do then. Didn't cost the world and I figured I was deffo in with a shot if the flop hit me right. AK is nice, but it's not a made hand. Where I know I messed up in hindsight was the mini raise on the turn. It pretty much told him exactly what I was holding and I let that fact slip from my mind at the time. I spent a good bit of time thinking through his previous hands and betting patterns before I called the all in. He flipped over AA. FML. First time the guy gets a real hand and I'm stuck up to me neck in it. If I had folded, I'd still have about average stack.
When I got up to leave there was a big debate brewing about the hand. One Lad says, "It was OBVIOUS he had aces" to which another replied, "Have you not been playing at the same table we've been for the past couple of hours?"
Sigh.
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GreekStein
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #17 on:
November 24, 2008, 05:42:14 PM »
Last comment 'have you not seen how he's been playing' says it all really. As for the other guy's comment - well everyone in casinos seems to be an expert after cards are on their backs.
Against a 'maniac' going broke here isnt that bad. If you wanted to play small ball with him though, like how you started the hand, calling the turn is a better play.
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mondatoo
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #18 on:
November 24, 2008, 05:48:39 PM »
Quote from: Gamblor21 on November 24, 2008, 04:58:35 PM
I think villain thinks were making a stand here. He has bet 1/3 of the pot and been min raised.
Without being at the table/knowing the player it is difficult to put an exact read on him, but i'd get it allin as i think he has something along the lines of straight and flush draw and we're ahead and killing his flush draw.
I think hero passed and was shown 87/J10/Q10 clubs etc.
Yeah that is the lines i was thinking along was going to say i think he had JQc but no way can narrow his range this much when not at the table but just with description from tighty this is hand i'd be putting him close to.I think hero called and opp got there brutally with 10 river.
Also agee with the perception we've giving as we don't look that strong and think the villain believes he can push us of our hand with his weaker holding
Mantis i generally find that weaker players lower there bluff barrelling bet i.e strong 1st barrel weak 2nd and therefore dont think he has hit that 6 directly with a set but much more likely on a draw.Everyone seems to be critical of the turn min raise which i generally don't like however,if indeed he is on a flush/straight draw we've got him to get it all in on the turn when we've got him crushed so hasn't this play worked well in this situation as long as we call and 1)Our read was this, that he was on a draw and our read was correct and 2)This was hero's reasoning for the min raise
Since it was tighty who posted this up and we are unaware of hero's ideas/thoughts in this hand not sure we can say
he
she (whoopsie) didn't consider the bet sizing and his different reasoning for the way parts of this hand we're played.If he did call and was correct on his read regardless of the outcome he has played the hand perfectly no ?
PS I'm not fixing all the other he's no sexism ment of course
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action man
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #19 on:
November 24, 2008, 05:55:25 PM »
just a cooler
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #20 on:
November 24, 2008, 05:58:00 PM »
Well jamming the pot for 1500 on a bone dry K-9-4 board didn't get me thinking A-A. You call this bet anyway (indicating a K or a set) and then he decides that betting 1500 into 4500 when the board gets more dangerous is a winner. WTF??? Are you sure he didn't have 6-6?? Anyway the guys who said it's obvious he had A-A are wrong. For it to be obvious you would need to be at one with the wtf yo-yo betting habits of a screwball.
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Tikay - "He has a proven track record in business, he is articulate, intelligent, & presents his cases well"
Claw75 - "Mantis is not only a blonde legend he's also very easy on the eye"
Outragous76 - "a really nice certainly intelligent guy"
taximan007 & Girgy85 & Celtic & Laxie - <3 Mantis
action man
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #21 on:
November 24, 2008, 06:01:56 PM »
wow, if a lass check/mins me on the turn and i have AA i call and check call riv. Villain is fearless
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mondatoo
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #22 on:
November 24, 2008, 06:03:34 PM »
UL Laxie,don't you just love these live "pro's" who come out with ridic remarks like "obviously aces",did you pour a baby guinness over his head
The guys who say it was obvious he had aces are the guys who will never be winning poker players and would think these last 2 pages were utter gobbledigook,have i spelt that correct ?
Don't think villain was fearless trigg more likely i got aces and i aint folding, u not agree ?
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LeKnave
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the end of days...
Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #23 on:
November 24, 2008, 06:15:21 PM »
3bet pre and try ur best to get 100x in, you have AKgreen yo.
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MANTIS01
Hero Member
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #24 on:
November 24, 2008, 06:16:12 PM »
Posted by: mondatoo
Quote
Mantis i generally find that weaker players lower there bluff barrelling bet i.e strong 1st barrel weak 2nd and therefore dont think he has hit that 6 directly with a set but much more likely on a draw.Everyone seems to be critical of the turn min raise which i generally don't like however,if indeed he is on a flush/straight draw we've got him to get it all in on the turn when we've got him crushed so hasn't this play worked well in this situation as long as we call and 1)Our read was this, that he was on a draw and our read was correct and 2)This was hero's reasoning for the min raise
If the 2nd barrell on the turn is a weak bluff then raising is futile imo because he will just fold. If he has just a draw, getting it in for 21k is going to be harder said than done with 1 card to come imo. There is little chance this guy will just shut down on the river anyway. And if he already has a set or cough A-A you get stacked. So all in all I can't see how raising the turn, for any amount actually, improves anything.
Quote from: action man on November 24, 2008, 06:01:56 PM
wow, if a lass check/mins me on the turn and i have AA i call and check call riv. Villain is fearless.
QFT
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Tikay - "He has a proven track record in business, he is articulate, intelligent, & presents his cases well"
Claw75 - "Mantis is not only a blonde legend he's also very easy on the eye"
Outragous76 - "a really nice certainly intelligent guy"
taximan007 & Girgy85 & Celtic & Laxie - <3 Mantis
mondatoo
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #25 on:
November 24, 2008, 06:21:52 PM »
Yeah i agree with that mantis but was just saying that in this situation against this oppo the fact he has shoved over our weak looking min raise if we are looking to get it in then the play has worked yeah ?
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Laxie
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #26 on:
November 24, 2008, 06:30:32 PM »
He was oblivious to bet sizes. Gut shot draws were his speciality. He'd push all in with them and call any bet you threw out there if he was on one. He'd call with middle pair, top pair, any hit or draw at all. Dream opponent if luck is on your side. I wanted his chips and was (in my mind) challenging him on the turn. 'Oh you've hit that board then?'
As for the one who said '"it was obvious"... I know that guy and have knocked him out of tourneys in the past. Would be a cruel waste of drink IMO.
So, I guess the next question is:
When you're up against someone who is utterly reckless, how do you know when you're ahead and when to pack it in?
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #27 on:
November 24, 2008, 07:06:52 PM »
Quote from: action man on November 24, 2008, 06:01:56 PM
wow, if a lass check/mins me on the turn and i have AA i call and check call riv. Villain is fearless
yeah, wow! thats like the only hand we are beating when we get checkminned on on the turn.
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Pab
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #28 on:
November 24, 2008, 07:17:13 PM »
Pre-flop
I flat call here as well, deep-stacked and in position, also NO ANTES! Im guessing if the guy is opening a lot of hands he probably is just going to fold if you 3 bet pre and u had 900 chips to a 20k stack worth almost exactly nothing in the context of the whole tournament. If he has shown a propensity to call a lot after getting 3 bet then by all means do so and play an inflated pot in position and get his whole stack when his inferior Ax or Kx connects. But from my own experience frequent openers will just give up when 3 bet pre-flop, especially with no antes....
Post flop
Flop call is also optimal imo as well, if he is as agressive and loose opener as you described then the chances of him hitting the flop harder than you are slim and a total airball is his most likely holding so any raise from you would be met by an insta-pass from him. On to the turn.......... Why would you ever raise here? You picked up nut flush draw to go with TPTK but you started the hand 100BB's deep so if you raise the turn and villian still wants to get involved you are very likely relying on the flush draw with 1 card come to get you out of jail. From what you described about him he is always betting with worse made hands which is still good news for your hand but if you raise you fold out the majority of those hands and keep in the ones that beat you, not a very favourable situation. This deep stacked I thnk you have to call and evaluate the river card...
That would be my first option on how to pay the hand, but involves a flop, turn and potentially river with chips still to bet with and that can prove daunting.....
so this would be my alternative:
Quote from: LeKnave on November 24, 2008, 06:15:21 PM
3bet pre and try ur best to get 100x in, you have AKgreen yo.
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Moorman1
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Re: Live MTT. Respond to turn push.
«
Reply #29 on:
November 24, 2008, 07:31:06 PM »
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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