Should I call?

[EvilPie]

DTD £1k comp. Blinds are 150/300 no antes

I'm UTG with JJ so raise up to 800 and get 3 callers not including the blinds. My image is fairly tight so I didn't expect this.

Flop comes 

I lead out for 1200. Next to act who is the short stack shoves and the others fold.

It's 5100 to call and there's about 11k in the pot. I'm down to 17k if I call and lose, up to 33k if I win.

Oppo has seen his stack steadily depleting following a few pots where he's been bet off them and doesn't seem too confident playing flops. He's obviously not happy with his short stack and has pushed a few times to win pots on the flop without showdown. We've seen a few rag aces that he's played to showdown as well.

Obviously I figure that AQ is in his range but I can't help thinking he makes this move with 99, A10 or even AK.

Is this a snap call?

[MC]

Don't see how you can pass here man

You could have him crushed, it's very likely you have 6 outs if he has you beaten, which admitedly you don't have the odds for, but a reasonable amount of back up there

I call...

[AlexMartin]

its close actually.

[dan]

Im with Alex here, I think its really close. Even if he thought you were just con betting there are still 2 players behind him still to act so would he push on a bluff or 2nd pair.

On the other hand he may actually have something like K J/ AJ. He wouldn't have AK because surely he wouldve pushed his short stack in PF.

[MANTIS01]

If you are ahead he is going to have the broadway draw or a pair/gutshot combo. But you have two of the jacks so K-J/10-J are less likely than normal. There is also a possibilty that he's pushing with air because the pot is offering some value. However dan's point about the active players behind makes this less likely as well. I think it comes down to whether you can readily include middle pair in his push range because of his tilty pushy manner? If you can then it's a call. But I wouldn't say it's a fist-pump because the guy can have a Q just as easily.

[EvilPie]

its close actually.

I thought so. I dwelled up for a long time before deciding.

I had to put him on either AQ or 99 with the gutshot + set in case he got it wrong (basically the same as me).

I don't put him on KJ with 7 players still to act especially seat 5 who was very aggro and likely to reraise with any ace or combo (he's the one I was after tbh). AK is a possibility for this reason as well, he may have called to induce the reraise with a strong hand.

Given that I'm putting him on AQ 50% of the time, 99 or A10, AJ, AK the other 50% is it now a call. I've been on his table for a few hours so I'm fairly confident with these reads.

[EvilPie]

If you are ahead he is going to have the broadway draw or a pair/gutshot combo. But you have two of the jacks so K-J/10-J are less likely than normal. There is also a possibilty that he's pushing with air because the pot is offering some value. However dan's point about the active players behind makes this less likely as well. I think it comes down to whether you can readily include middle pair in his push range because of his tilty pushy manner? If you can then it's a call. But I wouldn't say it's a fist-pump because the guy can have a Q just as easily.

I'm glad it wasn't a fist pump. I'd have been disappointed after thinking about it for so long 

[mondatoo]

I agree it is a really close decision,i think i probably fold as i'm a nit and your going to find better spots due to the structure,but either way isn't a bad play imo

[Royal Flush]

Is he any good? Why is he flatting 800 out of that stack pre? Any good player is only showing KK/AA here so its a fold, if he is bad then probs call.

[MANTIS01]

Is he any good? Why is he flatting 800 out of that stack pre? Any good player is only showing KK/AA here so its a fold, if he is bad then probs call.

You are right. It is a fold if the player is good. But EvilPie tells us the guy is tilty, not happy with his stack, not confident on the board, pushing at will, and showing down rag aces. I would suggest he isn't that good.

Carrying on from this though. EvilPie, you are quite confident to discount K-J/10-J when I think you can happily include those hands here. If the guy is currently steaming a bit, seeing flops, and successfully pushing to win, then it's quite possible he calls pre with these types of hands to keep the run going. Not ideal because of his ep I know. But that consideration is good poker. Is your man playing good poker or spew poker right now? If it's good poker you can't call his all-in really. If it's spewy poker you can. But I don't think you can justify the call by saying his play is bad and then qualify it by saying he wont play K-J because that would be bad. It is hard to reason that he is bad enough to push A-10 on the flop but not call K-J pre.

[bolt pp]

call call call

[mondatoo]

call call call

Really that easy ??

Doesn't seem to have been mentioned but surely KQ is a high possivbilty and at least in his range

[GreekStein]

Is he any good? Why is he flatting 800 out of that stack pre? Any good player is only showing KK/AA here so its a fold, if he is bad then probs call.

I think we could be overestimating the skill level of unknown live players, even though this is a £1000 comp.

Can't make my mind up on call / pass though - very close imo

[EvilPie]

Is he any good? Why is he flatting 800 out of that stack pre? Any good player is only showing KK/AA here so its a fold, if he is bad then probs call.

I think we could be overestimating the skill level of unknown live players, even though this is a £1000 comp.

Can't make my mind up on call / pass though - very close imo

I've not got him down as being good. He's called a few pots down where he was beaten and could easily have got away. It was almost as though the other guy was holding a sign up saying "I've got it mate, please call" and he obligingly did.

He may just be a non-believer who knows but I don't think tricky flat calling is in his arsenal.

General standard in this comp was v poor imo. No reason to put this gent in to any other bracket.