river CR v decent nit. hero fold?

[AlexMartin]

Villain is pretty nitty tag. 19/14/3. Have a note that says he can turn a made hand into a bluff and overbet shoves enormous hands on the river.

***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 456151349 *****
NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, December 16, 04:07:46 GMT 2008
Table Oxygen 60 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 4
Seat 1: MIKESSS3 ( $97 )
Seat 2: brucio ( $202.25 )
Seat 3: JammyJenny ( $445.35 )
Seat 4: Aidfingers ( $266.28 )
Seat 6: hadaway ( $53.50 )
brucio posts small blind [$1]
JammyJenny posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JammyJenny [ , ]
Aidfingers folds
MIKESSS3 calls [$2]
brucio raises to [$8]
JammyJenny calls [$6]
MIKESSS3 calls [$6]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
brucio bets [$24]
JammyJenny calls [$24]
MIKESSS3 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
brucio checks
JammyJenny checks
** Dealing River ** [ ]
brucio checks
JammyJenny bets [$50]
brucio goes all-in
brucio raises to [$170.25]

[Amatay]

fwiw i fold as it looks to me like he either flopped top 2 pr or kkk/qqq. Like i think u said in another post they rarely make these kinda plays on river at a lowish lims without the nuts

[bolt pp]

fold fold fold

though i call if it's 2005

[DaveShoelace]

Yeah the flop should smack his range pretty hard right? So when he checks the turn I reckon he is checking his monster or trying to see a cheap river card for his flush, either way you are fooked.

[EvilPie]

Buy in for $80 then who gives a fuck about making decisions.

[EvilPie]

Why the value bet on the river?

Against a nitty player what are you hoping to be called with on this board?

[Rookie (Rodney)]

Surely you have to vbet the river here. And FWIW I probs call him on the river too.

Then again I think i am a terrible cash player.

[AlexMartin]

Why the value bet on the river?

Against a nitty player what are you hoping to be called with on this board?

AA/AK/AQ.

[EvilPie]

Why the value bet on the river?

Against a nitty player what are you hoping to be called with on this board?

AA/AK/AQ.

It seems a big risk against this player especially with the notes you have on him. I can't see him calling with AK or AA given that the river has just filled up so many draws.

I can understand value betting a decent flush because I think a straight or a worse flush may call but here I think you only get called by AQ or a hand that beats you.

Any other hand he's either passing or shoving. He may even turn AQ in to a bluff and shove it.

Have you played against him a lot? If you have then maybe he's got notes on you too. If you have a habit of bluffing the river when it comes a scary card then maybe you can call him here because he thinks you're at it but has no showdown value in his hand.

There's just too much out there beating you. I think it's a pass as played but personally I just pussy check the river.

[T_Mar]

I think this is pretty tough spot given your notes on him... Especially as I'm not sure how often people take this line with a monster?! He has to be pretty sure of your hand to check the river and I would think most of the time he leads with hands that beat you?? (you would know better than me on this tho!)

There are more made hand combos that he could turn into a bluff than 'nut' hands, so dont think calling is bad based on your read

[NoflopsHomer]

Seems like a standard bet/fold to me.

[MC]

fold fold fold

though i call if it's 2005

Lol, this^

Based on your read, I believe bet/pass is correct here...

[AlexMartin]

i did fold, but it got me thinking that this might be exploitable.

Villain knows im kinda forced to play very faceup on the flop as its 4way, the only draw i can have is J10 realistically and the only made hand i can have which can call a river CR shove is KQ, which is unlikely as i didnt 3b pre.

As so much of my range has to vbet the river, and so little can call a cr shove, which villain should realise, i kinda think i might have levelled myself given that he is repping exactly QQ and KK and is checking the turn AND the river?? I think its a sick line as a bluff anyway, but we will sadly never know.   

[UpTheMariners]

whatever you do dont announce it to the table your folding that hand otherwise your gonna get owned badly in the future. brucio has taken a bit of a wierd line by checking the river, so i call his river raise as most players arnt capable of checking the river with the nuts.

[EvilPie]

whatever you do dont announce it to the table your folding that hand otherwise your gonna get owned badly in the future. brucio has taken a bit of a wierd line by checking the river, so i call his river raise as most players arnt capable of checking the river with the nuts.

Why is it weird? What can possibly call him if he's got the nuts?

Unless he puts Alex on the nut flush or worse full house which he's got no reason to he's getting nothing from his bet.

Betting £50 probably gets a fold, betting £25 looks so suspicious it's only ever getting a call never a raise.

The check gives the oppo a chance to steal or value bet exactly the kind of hands that could possibly call any bet he makes.

He can then raise in to a much bigger pot meaning he's more likely to get a call and even if he doesn't he's got more out of it than if he'd bet.

Good play by oppo I think whether he had it or not.