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Poker Hand Analysis
Check or Value Bet?
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Topic: Check or Value Bet? (Read 4098 times)
snoopy1239
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Check or Value Bet?
«
on:
December 21, 2008, 01:49:53 AM »
50p/£1 table. 6-handed. Very little on opponent. He's only been at the table for a round or two, but has a full stack.
I raise to £3 from the button with
. He calls in the sb, as does the bb.
Flop =
He leads for £6, bb folds, I raise to £15, he calls.
Turn =
He checks, I bet £20, he calls.
River =
He checks.
He has £65 left. About £75 in the pot. Do I check, value bet a small amount or stick him in?
Is this a dead easy decision?
«
Last Edit: December 21, 2008, 01:53:40 AM by snoopy1239
»
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maldini32
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #1 on:
December 21, 2008, 01:57:12 AM »
Easy decision, put him in.
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pokerfan
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #2 on:
December 21, 2008, 12:38:10 PM »
Quote from: maldini32 on December 21, 2008, 01:57:12 AM
Easy decision, put him in.
Agree, he cant pass £65 in to £140 pot. Got to have QK
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #3 on:
December 21, 2008, 12:47:39 PM »
I would normally bet about 2/3 of the pot here hoping he has a part of that board. I fear though that we may have run into something silly like
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kinboshi
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We go again.
Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #4 on:
December 21, 2008, 02:43:59 PM »
I think with deeper stacks there might be merit in checking it down. But with the size of the stacks, ship the lot in and then reload when he turns over
.
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bolt pp
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #5 on:
December 21, 2008, 03:51:30 PM »
set him in
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #6 on:
December 21, 2008, 06:35:50 PM »
bet it...he'll probably fold his missed FD but you could be nicely ahead here and get paid.
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daviebhoy
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #7 on:
December 22, 2008, 12:18:42 PM »
I think the pot is in serious danger of getting too big for the strength of our hand and I would be tempted to check it as we have no info on opponent and there are quite a few hands beating us here by the time we get to the river.
«
Last Edit: December 22, 2008, 02:16:37 PM by daviebhoy
»
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #8 on:
December 22, 2008, 12:35:16 PM »
Quote from: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 12:18:42 PM
I think the pot is in serious danger of getting too big for the strength of our hand and I would be tempted to check it as we have no info on opponent and
there are quite a few hands beating us here by the time we get to the river.
Like what?..the draws missed...essentially it is unlikely that any hand we were beating on the flop we are losing to now.
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daviebhoy
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #9 on:
December 22, 2008, 12:45:24 PM »
Look at it from your opponents view. He hits 2pair on flop with K3 and gets re-raised. Its clear you are not on a draw and he is worried about KK, 99 or K9. If you have AK then you are likely to hang yourself. So, he just calls raise and on turn.
If he had K7 he has just made his two pair on river and may have horribly sucked out.
You have TPTK, I'm not comfortable putting my entire stack in with it. Your opponent could be slow playing trips or had 2 pair all along.
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snoopy1239
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #10 on:
December 22, 2008, 12:46:10 PM »
Quote from: boldie on December 22, 2008, 12:35:16 PM
Quote from: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 12:18:42 PM
I think the pot is in serious danger of getting too big for the strength of our hand and I would be tempted to check it as we have no info on opponent and
there are quite a few hands beating us here by the time we get to the river.
Like what?.
.the draws missed
...essentially it is unlikely that any hand we were beating on the flop we are losing to now.
Draws are irrelevant on the river as a hand we are beating as they will fold to a value bet.
I say we are beating K-Q, K-J, K-T, J-J, T-T - I expect all other hands will fold.
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bolt pp
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #11 on:
December 22, 2008, 12:52:55 PM »
Quote from: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 12:45:24 PM
Look at it from your opponents view. He hits 2pair on flop with K3 and gets re-raised. Its clear you are not on a draw and he is worried about KK, 99 or K9. If you have AK then you are likely to hang yourself. So, he just calls raise and on turn.
If he had K7 he has just made his two pair on river and may have horribly sucked out.
You have TPTK, I'm not comfortable putting my entire stack in with it. Your opponent could be slow playing trips or had 2 pair all along.
?
If he had any of the hands you're suggesting then he played it about as bad as he could and if he is a bit of a dougnut then he's raising the turn after lead calling the flop.
kq, kj and even k/shit is gonna probs call now(not k rag so much), but it really does look like a kq sort of hand.
On such an unconnected board you're giving up too much value checking IMO.
«
Last Edit: December 22, 2008, 12:55:23 PM by bolt pp
»
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Nem
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #12 on:
December 22, 2008, 01:00:57 PM »
£55
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bolt pp
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #13 on:
December 22, 2008, 01:08:10 PM »
Quote from: Nemesis on December 22, 2008, 01:00:57 PM
£55
I like this, but if he re-shoves then i sort of have to agree with daviebhoy about his range and we can probably fold.
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Nem
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Re: Check or Value Bet?
«
Reply #14 on:
December 22, 2008, 01:11:31 PM »
Quote from: bolt pp on December 22, 2008, 01:08:10 PM
Quote from: Nemesis on December 22, 2008, 01:00:57 PM
£55
I like this, but if he re-shoves then i sort of have to agree with daviebhoy about his range and we can probably fold.
If he re shoves we insta call ldo.
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