Swimming Against the Tide

[Karabiner]

What do you think about the 6.6 available about Everton on Monday Keith ?

I know they have a poor record in recent derbies but they are playing well presently and that looks huge to me.

[kukushkin88]

The outsider in the majority of premiership games will represent value. The premiership probably has more money wagered on it unintelligently than any other market. The vast majority of losing punters will back what they perceive to be most likely winner of any match. Therefore in almost every instance the favourite is artificially low correspondingly the outsider is almost always an inflated price.

[The Camel]

What do you think about the 6.6 available about Everton on Monday Keith ?

I know they have a poor record in recent derbies but they are playing well presently and that looks huge to me.

I can see where you're coming from, I certainly couldn't bet Liverpool at 1.67. However, in a game where the goal expectancy will be about 2.3 the draw is a massive runner. I think I would probably rather lay Liverpool than back Everton.

[The Camel]

The outsider in the majority of premiership games will represent value. The premiership probably has more money wagered on it unintelligently than any other market. The vast majority of losing punters will back what they perceive to be most likely winner of any match. Therefore in almost every instance the favourite is artificially low correspondingly the outsider is almost always an inflated price.

If I was betting blind I would agree with you. There is more likely to be value about the outsider than the favourite, but there are also lots of super shrewd punters on Betfair that will often support a price which would normally collapse.

[TheChipPrince]

The outsider in the majority of premiership games will represent value. The premiership probably has more money wagered on it unintelligently than any other market. The vast majority of losing punters will back what they perceive to be most likely winner of any match. Therefore in almost every instance the favourite is artificially low correspondingly the outsider is almost always an inflated price.

If I was betting blind I would agree with you. There is more likely to be value about the outsider than the favourite, but there are also lots of super shrewd punters on Betfair that will often support a price which would normally collapse.

Can you explain a bit more Camel what you mean 'normally collapse'?

[The Camel]

The outsider in the majority of premiership games will represent value. The premiership probably has more money wagered on it unintelligently than any other market. The vast majority of losing punters will back what they perceive to be most likely winner of any match. Therefore in almost every instance the favourite is artificially low correspondingly the outsider is almost always an inflated price.

If I was betting blind I would agree with you. There is more likely to be value about the outsider than the favourite, but there are also lots of super shrewd punters on Betfair that will often support a price which would normally collapse.

Can you explain a bit more Camel what you mean 'normally collapse'?

Ok.

Let's say Team A has won 6 in a row. They are playing away at Team B who have lost 4 in a row and their star striker has been sold since the coupons were printed. The opening price for team A was 2.1. Since the striker was sold, the press are full of stories that Team B are in crisis and there is talk that the manager will be sacked soon.

The price on BF quickly moves from 2.1 to 1.9. Everyone wants to back them, but now at the new price several "sharp" betfair punters want to oppose them so they keep the price higher than it "should" be if market forces worked like normally would on bf.

On matches like this you often see twice as much or more traded than in a normal match in the division. "Mug" money wants to pile in on Team A, but sharp players are prepared to stake much more than usual on this match as they seeing laying Team A is great value.

[The Camel]

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

I've put in a point at 4.4 and another 2pts at 4.6.

I'll let you know if they get matched.

[Scottish Dave]

or a better defination of value is roulette wheel i offer you even money on black and 2-1 on red you would bet on red as you are getting better value even though the odds on the result are the same

of course ill bet RED

And yes i think Blackburn are close to 90% to win, i honestly cant see past them in this match...

.....line up the Dave haters, when Newcastle score their 3rd!

[The Camel]

Really, the more I think about this match, the more I like Newcastle.

Blackburn have conceeded 35 goals in 20 matches for the second worst defensive record in the league.

Newcastle played their best football of the season against Portsmouth and Spurs recently. Yes, they got hammered by Liverpool and lost at home to Hull, but the scousers would have beaten anyone by 4 that day, they were awesome and as stated before Hull were extremely lucky to get a win at St James Park.

Blackburn have improved slightly since Big Sam took over. They are shocking at the back and apart from Tugay are devoid of creation in the middle of the park. Santa Cruz wants out and that must be a disruption. They have won one of their last 10 and that was at home to travel shy Stoke.

7/2 is massive.

[Jim-D]

Well Camel sir, you've certainly convinced me, I'm having a bit of it

[Scottish Dave]

oh FFS, im questioning myself again!

FML

[Teacake]

Newcastle have gone out to 4/1 on Skybet!!!

[TheChipPrince]

Really, the more I think about this match, the more I like Newcastle.

Blackburn have conceeded 35 goals in 20 matches for the second worst defensive record in the league.

Newcastle played their best football of the season against Portsmouth and Spurs recently. Yes, they got hammered by Liverpool and lost at home to Hull, but the scousers would have beaten anyone by 4 that day, they were awesome and as stated before Hull were extremely lucky to get a win at St James Park.

Blackburn have improved slightly since Big Sam took over. They are shocking at the back and apart from Tugay are devoid of creation in the middle of the park. Santa Cruz wants out and that must be a disruption. They have won one of their last 10 and that was at home to travel shy Stoke.

7/2 is massive.

This the only bet today then Keith?  Has it matched?

[Scottish Dave]

Really, the more I think about this match, the more I like Newcastle.

Blackburn have conceeded 35 goals in 20 matches for the second worst defensive record in the league.

Newcastle played their best football of the season against Portsmouth and Spurs recently. Yes, they got hammered by Liverpool and lost at home to Hull, but the scousers would have beaten anyone by 4 that day, they were awesome and as stated before Hull were extremely lucky to get a win at St James Park.

Blackburn have improved slightly since Big Sam took over. They are shocking at the back and apart from Tugay are devoid of creation in the middle of the park. Santa Cruz wants out and that must be a disruption. They have won one of their last 10 and that was at home to travel shy Stoke.

7/2 is massive.

This the only bet today then Keith?  Has it matched?

Personally, i think Wolves @ 7/5 is huge, and for scottish betting punters, Hearts @ 7/4 is also way over priced!

[The Camel]

Yes, all matched. I really don't like Michael Owen, I think he's a greedy, selfish little tosser. But I hope he gets a hattrick today This sort of bet is exactly what I was banging on about when I started this thread. Maybe I was wrong about Newcastle being huge value at 4.0. But at nearly 5.0 this is absolutely massive. I've had ALOT of money on this selection and it will probably lose. But i know that if I only have bets like this for the rest of my life, I will be content.

Almost certainly more bets to come (probably 15-20 minutes before kick off)...