Multistage MTT hand analysis

[Royal Flush]

I checked intending to Check raise all in (though I like the "lead" ideas mentioned in this thread)

To my surprise he checked too, which seemed rather inconsistent with this player, or maybe my check had him scratching his head. Dunno

So to the turn

 

The turn being a thing of beauty

What now? And what has he got?

He has a mid/high PP that won't commit unless he hits a set, unless he thinks we have air which is why leading the flop is pretty much the only way to get paid!

[TheChipPrince]

I checked intending to Check raise all in (though I like the "lead" ideas mentioned in this thread)

To my surprise he checked too, which seemed rather inconsistent with this player, or maybe my check had him scratching his head. Dunno

So to the turn

 

The turn being a thing of beauty

What now? And what has he got?

He has a mid/high PP that won't commit unless he hits a set, unless he thinks we have air which is why leading the flop is pretty much the only way to get paid!

Unless he's already hit his set!   

[LuckyLloyd]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

nice of you to pop in Lloyd, have you factored in heros image? His 4b shoving range has us utterly fked imo, its probs JJ+AK+. If hes decent (as op described) and calls, it will only be with AA/KK which hes never folding post.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  56,506,032  games     0.062 secs   911,387,612  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    70.676%     69.78%    00.89%          39431772       504382.50   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1:    29.324%     28.43%    00.89%          16065495       504382.50   { As6s }


Sure, getting it in pre is going to be a mistake, but it's never a huge mistake once you have re - raised because you'll be getting 2 : 1 for the rest. I'd say he should rarely ever flatcall 10k, and agree that if he is doing it it's with the boots or KK. But then, it's a live tournament and people fold too much - I've seen people make hero folds where they most definitely shouldn't on flops before.

The whole point is that you have to re - raise him to begin with. And you are just slightly over a stacksize where you would be 3 - bet shoving. So, you should just play it in a way where the money goes in slightly delayed given the effective stacks as they are.

[LuckyLloyd]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

Yeah, that sounds well hard. The strat is ill-thought out and that but it sounds hard. Well done.

Yes, sounding 'hard' was clearly what I was aiming for. After all, I live for the adulation and adoration of idiots like yourself.

[MANTIS01]

I checked intending to Check raise all in (though I like the "lead" ideas mentioned in this thread)

To my surprise he checked too, which seemed rather inconsistent with this player, or maybe my check had him scratching his head. Dunno

So to the turn

 

The turn being a thing of beauty

What now? And what has he got?

He has a mid/high PP that won't commit unless he hits a set, unless he thinks we have air which is why leading the flop is pretty much the only way to get paid!

Yeah well i'm seeing this hand very differently to you James. I really don't think Tighty leading would represent air considering his image. And I really don't think villain checking behind tells us he has a mid/high pair either. I think this type of player would bet 9-9 vs Tighty when you look at how things are set up. Nah, I don't like the aggressive talented player wont bet unless he hits a set theory really. I think he checks the flop cos he's hit it and would bet if he hadn't. I would deffo check an A-J type hand behind here.

[MANTIS01]

Stage 2 is tomorrow

Given the information laid out in the original post, I wouldn't be worrying about a 'stage two' if I was in this situation. I'd have already decided to:

- re - raise to 10k;
- and call a shove if he 4 - bets all - in;
- and open shove my remaining stack on EVERY flop if he actually just flatcalls the 10k re - raise;

I'll leave it to other people to debate the merits or demerits of that, but in the described context - that is what my instincts would have me do (barring some unlikely live 'tell' that he actually has it this time). I wouldn't be thinking too much around it tbh when stacks are this shallow.

Yeah, that sounds well hard. The strat is ill-thought out and that but it sounds hard. Well done.

Yes, sounding 'hard' was clearly what I was aiming for. After all, I live for the adulation and adoration of idiots like yourself.

Yeah, well I was only debating the merits and demerits of the strat.

[kukushkin88]

It's crazy that Lloyd, who along with Flushy is probably the most valued contributor to PHA makes a rare post and you accuse him of trying to sound "hard".

[TightEnd]

Both Mantis and Lloyd are valued contributors. So is everyone else's contribution, valued.

Lets debate the relative incompetence of myself (or anyone's view on any PHA thread)  without name calling to anyone please!

[bolt pp]

It's crazy that Lloyd, who along with Flushy is probably the most valued contributor to PHA makes a rare post and you accuse him of trying to sound "hard".

how? he doesn't post for months and months

[kukushkin88]

Obviously I'd rather he posted more, when he does post I usually learn something, same goes for most of flushy's posts.

[bolt pp]

Obviously I'd rather he posted more, when he does post I usually learn something, same goes for most of flushy's posts.

but not Mantis's?

[kukushkin88]

Mantis analyses specific tournament situations very well but it's rarely stuff that I didn't already know. Most of the improvments I've made as a poker player have come initially from playing against and discussing situations with Alex M, Andy Ward's blog and more recently from Flushy and Lloyd on PHA.

[Royal Flush]

I checked intending to Check raise all in (though I like the "lead" ideas mentioned in this thread)

To my surprise he checked too, which seemed rather inconsistent with this player, or maybe my check had him scratching his head. Dunno

So to the turn

 

The turn being a thing of beauty

What now? And what has he got?

He has a mid/high PP that won't commit unless he hits a set, unless he thinks we have air which is why leading the flop is pretty much the only way to get paid!

Yeah well i'm seeing this hand very differently to you James. I really don't think Tighty leading would represent air considering his image. And I really don't think villain checking behind tells us he has a mid/high pair either. I think this type of player would bet 9-9 vs Tighty when you look at how things are set up. Nah, I don't like the aggressive talented player wont bet unless he hits a set theory really. I think he checks the flop cos he's hit it and would bet if he hadn't. I would deffo check an A-J type hand behind here.

Meh agreed to a point if he is quite bad, but this guy is good, i don't see him deciding to bet his 99 here too often unless he decides to put Tighty on KK-JJ-TT and only those hands and thinks Tighty will fold.

My default line in these spots was always to check the flop but it never got me any action unless the guy turned a better hand, now i just lead in these spots and hope they make a move putting me on KK given most people check AA and QQ in these spots.