Massive Draw, what to do?

[Woodsey]

15 or so left in this tourney, 5 get paid, I'm in top 3 or 4 currently with decent stack, I think he has big pair but I have a massive draw. What should I do? Take the coin flip or play it more cautiously?

Game #7267618433: £1500 GTD (ID9205301) £30+£3 - Hold'em NL (100/200) - 2009/02/16 - 23:33:20 (UK)
Table "9205301 - 3" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Anthov56p (2315 in chips)
Seat 2: Deni27086 (4110 in chips)
Seat 4: Ibra17083 (9355 in chips)
Seat 5: Lauri12zc (5460 in chips)
Seat 7: Woodsey (8840 in chips)
Seat 8: Simpso77 (4315 in chips)
Seat 10: NeroDuck (6365 in chips)
Deni27086: posts small blind 100
Ibra17083: posts big blind 200
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Woodsey [ ]
Lauri12zc: folds
Woodsey: raises to 555
Simpso77: folds
NeroDuck: raises to 1200
Anthov56p: folds
Deni27086: folds
Ibra17083: folds
Woodsey: calls 645
----- FLOP ----- [ ]
Woodsey: checks
NeroDuck: bets 1200

[da_poker_monkey]

As a losing player who never wins anything i'd get it all in - Second is last and all that, so prolly best thing to do would be opposite of that 

[Longy]

All in, we are virtually flipping against aces here with a nice overlay in the pot and some fold equity against other ak and other random stuff in his range, so shoving is deffo +ev.

I suppose the only real question is that is calling more +ev, i don't like calling as a lot of our outs are action killers against his range and we might not get value when we hit and if we miss the turn it is an awkward spot with stack sizes.

[TheChipPrince]

if he turns over any hand but a set you should be happy, thats assuming he calls...

Can i ask why no 4-bet pre?

[MC]

if he turns over any hand but a set you should be happy, thats assuming he calls...

Can i ask why no 4-bet pre?

Agree, shove preflop

As played, shove on the flop

[T_Mar]

Agree with Longy, Think you have to shove, he's pretty much betting his entire range on the flop once you checked and his small bet doesn't exactly scream strength so you likely have some FE ... you obv flipping against the top of his range but its unavoidable I think..  

[kukushkin88]

We're not flipping vs the top of his range, we're a 2-1 dog, it is a shove though.

[GreekStein]

Surprised to see the flat pre. Woulda 4-balled him personally.

As played, jam now.

[Woodsey]

I'm totally against 4 betting/getting in all in PF when 40+ BB deep, especially when the small RR PF stinks of AA or KK, its just too much of a risk given the whole scenario, 20 BBs or less then I'm going all the way with it PF. I'm in a good spot in the tourney as it is, what would the rationale be for 4 betting/shoving PF?

Once again on the flop I know he has a big pair and I know I'm coin flipping. My question is really should I be risking it all here and now, or waiting for a less risky spot as I have enough chips to probably small ball my way to the money/take coin flips with the shorties. I'm thinking now on the flop I should have flat called the bet to catch a card and re-evaluate on the turn depending on the size of the bet I facing, my reason being I don't need to get into a gamble fest as I'm in a healthy situation in the tourney. Can you also give your reasons for your decisions in any further posts please.

One final question. The same scenario in a 1k GUKPT event 25 left, 20 get paid do you do the same?

As it turns out I CRAI on flop and lost, he had AA, no surprise.........meh

Ta for your answers

[daviebhoy]

What to do here is very player specific. If you think he is the type of player to 3-bet pre with only AA or KK then it is clearly a fold pre-flop with AKs.

Otherwise I agree with everyone else that generally this should be 4 bet pre-flop against most decent players. Flatting with AKs there isn't great. When he pushes all-in over your 4-bet you might get away from your hand without losing all your chips and when he doesn't have AA or KK you get to take the pot down uncontested a lot of the time.

[kukushkin88]

You're only 32bb's (effective) preflop, I think the 4 bet jam is pretty standard.

As played even if you are sure he has AA it's +ev to get it in. We can't make that assumption though, he is just as likely to have KK and QQ, (I agree that his raise size represents a premium hand a very high proportion of the time) against KK and QQ we have approx 55% equity (AA 46%), we're getting a litlle more than 6/4 it's a clear shove for me. I think the added equity of a potentially dominating chip position makes it even more clear cut. People definitely over value being in a 'healthy' position in a tourney, it shouldn't stop you making +ev decisions.

[Woodsey]

What to do here is very player specific. If you think he is the type of player to 3-bet pre with only AA or KK then it is clearly a fold pre-flop with AKs.

Otherwise I agree with everyone else that generally this should be 4 bet pre-flop against most decent players. Flatting with AKs there isn't great. When he pushes all-in over your 4-bet you might get away from your hand without losing all your chips and when he doesn't have AA or KK you get to take the pot down uncontested a lot of the time.

Interesting points. From my limited observation of him he seemed pretty tight, but even if he is the nittiest of nits I am never ever passing PF to such a small RR even if I 100% know he has AA and it doesn't matter what 2 cards I have either I'm gonna try and outflop him for his 30bbs.

I do understand your thinking regarding the 4 betting now, I suppose your just asking him how serious he is about his hand. Even so isn't seeing a flop and trying to outflop him for his stack still a better and safer option? My reason for saying this is that it was such a small RR preflop that I had him on AA or KK anyway so a 4 bet doesn't give me any more info TBH.

On the flop its obv a risk v reward situation, but my question is really as to whether I really need to get involved with my current decent stack. Like I said earlier, i'm leaning towards flat calling flop and re-evaluating on turn.

[Woodsey]

You're only 32bb's (effective) preflop, I think the 4 bet jam is pretty standard.

As played even if you are sure he has AA it's +ev to get it in. We can't make that assumption though, he is just as likely to have KK and QQ, (I agree that his raise size represents a premium hand a very high proportion of the time) against KK and QQ we have approx 55% equity (AA 46%), we're getting a litlle more than 6/4 it's a clear shove for me. I think the added equity of a potentially dominating chip position makes it even more clear cut. People definitely over value being in a 'healthy' position in a tourney, it shouldn't stop you making +ev decisions.

What does everyone else think? I'm thinking we are too deep PF for a jam against such a small RR?

[daviebhoy]

Interesting points. From my limited observation of him he seemed pretty tight, but even if he is the nittiest of nits I am never ever passing PF to such a small RR even if I 100% know he has AA and it doesn't matter what 2 cards I have either I'm gonna try and outflop him for his 30bbs.

If you know he has AA pre-flop then why gamble your entire stack on Ace High ? Thats just crazy.

[Woodsey]

Interesting points. From my limited observation of him he seemed pretty tight, but even if he is the nittiest of nits I am never ever passing PF to such a small RR even if I 100% know he has AA and it doesn't matter what 2 cards I have either I'm gonna try and outflop him for his 30bbs.

If you know he has AA pre-flop then why gamble your entire stack on Ace High ? Thats just crazy.

I'm not gambling PF I'm calling a nearl min RR to try and outflop him. I don't usually my stack in PF with AK here.