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Poker Hand Analysis
Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
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Topic: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks (Read 7055 times)
GreekStein
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #30 on:
February 23, 2009, 05:41:29 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on February 23, 2009, 05:39:39 PM
Quote from: GreekStein on February 23, 2009, 05:34:52 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on February 23, 2009, 05:30:02 PM
Why do you think kier didn't c-jam the turn with his K-Q? Kier maxed the value vs this villain by c-calling the turn so why would you do anything different here?
Incase we miss value when a club hits and villain doesnt have one?
Or if she doesnt have an ace at all and is drawing with something like
or
Q. let's get it in before she misses.
But you could say the exact same thing about the spade draw in kier's hand. Also note the spade coming in that hand didn't slow her down...and anyway I can't see how she bets pot on the turn with a single club draw.
She's a donk. they do donkiful things
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easypickings
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #31 on:
February 23, 2009, 05:45:05 PM »
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 01:04:39 PM
Am I over valuing protecting a great stack at this early stage of the comp?
I think when a player is so extreme (whether that is aggressive, tight, or bad, etc) you sometimes have to take a line that you would never have wanted to take.
Getting such a massive stack in on a dodgy board is not what you planned to do, but the fact take this awful player will give you value with so many hands that you beat means that you have to consider it. This is basically just because of one big problem- this lady is over-valuing her hands not just in the typical donk way of calling too big, but unusally by betting too big as well.
I think you can take out some insurance by not raising the flop, and being able to get away if a club comes on the turn or river (after all, if she is so bad, she is never going to outfox you by turning one pair into a bluff if the board four flushes).
Otherwise, however, I think we need to decide to be very clear that we are not going to pass the hand. Unless we decide this for sure, it could confuse our thinking on how we are going to achieve our aim- combining the best value from our hand with getting away with some kind of decent stack if the club comes.
There are two main reasons why I think we have to make this big decision that we are playing this for value:
1)If we re-raise the flop, are we really thinking about getting away? We have an awful player who has just lost a big pot; can we really be certain that we are passing the losing hand if she moves all-in?
2) If we call the turn, the river is a blank and she moves in, can we possibly pass to the big danger here- a set of fours? I really don't think so. She has been seen to over value marginal hands by making big bets, and for this reason we would have to call.
My line is to call the flop, lead a non-club turn big for 11k, and a safe river for the remaining 18k (?). If she re-raises all-in on the turn, sigh, say to yourself "why couldn't this pot have come against someone who can play poker?" and call the bet. If a club comes on the river, check-pass.
(My guess given her pre-flop limp is that she has something like
or
? If not, she has a set of fours)
«
Last Edit: February 23, 2009, 05:56:41 PM by easypickings
»
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #32 on:
February 23, 2009, 05:56:35 PM »
Wouldn't jamming a club river rather than c-passing a club river be better vs a damn awful player? She's just made a crying call and lost...would she make another? Why do we put her on a face card club?
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easypickings
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #33 on:
February 23, 2009, 05:59:24 PM »
I agree. I think the best play would to bet 10k of the remaining 20k. We all know that can never be a bluff, but she doesn't. It's more likely to be called than a jam, and if we're wrong, 10k is not a disaster to play with.
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easypickings
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #34 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:03:23 PM »
Neil, do you know whether she re-checked her cards on the flop? I think that might be very crucial here, as most donks would do. If she didn't, it might just be enough cause to worry about a set of fours or a flush.
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Blatch
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #35 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:07:50 PM »
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 06:03:23 PM
Neil, do you know whether she re-checked her cards on the flop? I think that might be very crucial here, as most donks would do. If she didn't, it might just be enough cause to worry about a set of fours or a flush.
She re checked her cards after I checked to her on the flop but then never looked at them again after this point.
As soon as the flop come down her very first thing to do was to look down at her chips, i.e. a sign she is strong and I dont think a check ever went through her head.
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Blatch
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #36 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:09:05 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on February 23, 2009, 05:56:35 PM
Wouldn't jamming a club river rather than c-passing a club river be better vs a damn awful player? She's just made a crying call and lost...would she make another? Why do we put her on a face card club?
This is one thing I considered on the flop and turn. For all she knows I may have an ace with
and be chasing the nut flush.
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Blatch
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #37 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:10:34 PM »
Quote from: Numpty Dumpty on February 23, 2009, 05:28:51 PM
what actually happened?
Ohhhhh the suspence. I dont want to reveal just yet as reading people's different views is really helping me here.
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dousche
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Posts: 667
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #38 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:11:41 PM »
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 05:45:05 PM
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 01:04:39 PM
Am I over valuing protecting a great stack at this early stage of the comp?
1)If we re-raise the flop, are we really thinking about getting away? We have an awful player who has just lost a big pot; can we really be certain that we are passing the losing hand if she moves all-in?
i think so. surely the only hand she could conceivable 3-bet with that we're ahead of is A4, other than that we have 4 outs.
and why do you not include A4 in her range stu?
i agree that QT and JT with a club are hands that fit into her range though. but do the overbets not suggest to you that she may be trying to protect her hand (be it a weak ace or baby flush)?
im here talking about the hand with tom and we're thinking that the raise on the flop allows you to get away from a flush or set, although its possible that we'll mistakenly pass to a 3-bet from A4. if she flats the raise then a pair and a club seems the most likely candidate, meaning that we can check-fold a club or jam/lead on a blank (cant remember the exact stacks). raising her seems to define her hand so well that it makes up for having to check-pass in a big pot on the turn.
really interesting hand though blatch!
«
Last Edit: February 23, 2009, 06:21:22 PM by dousche
»
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dousche
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Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #39 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:22:05 PM »
obv didnt mean 3-bet and 4-bet in that post. corrected now
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easypickings
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Posts: 4879
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #40 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:32:09 PM »
Quote from: dousche on February 23, 2009, 06:11:41 PM
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 05:45:05 PM
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 01:04:39 PM
Am I over valuing protecting a great stack at this early stage of the comp?
1)If we re-raise the flop, are we really thinking about getting away? We have an awful player who has just lost a big pot; can we really be certain that we are passing the losing hand if she moves all-in?
i think so. surely the only hand she could conceivable 4-bet with that we're ahead of is A4, other than that we have 4 outs.
and why do you not include A4 in her range stu?
i agree that QT and JT with a club are hands that fit into her range though. but do the overbets not suggest to you that she may be trying to protect her hand (be it a weak ace or baby flush)?
im here talking about the hand with tom and we're thinking that the 3-bet on the flop allows you to get away from a flush or set, although its possible that we'll mistakenly pass to a 4-bet from A4. if she flats the 3-bet then a pair and a club seems the most likely candidate, meaning that we can check-fold a club or jam/lead on a blank (cant remember the exact stacks). 3-betting her seems to define her hand so well that it makes up for having to check-pass in a big pot on the turn.
really interesting hand though blatch!
I kind of agree. I just think, if you wanted to know directions in the street, you wouldn't stop and ask a blind person. I think asking your opponent to define their hand is fine against an ABC player or a calling station, but this lady is much more dangerous. She is also a betting station, and has just lost a big pot. How can we ask her to define her hand when she hasn't got the slightest clue about hand values herself?
I agree that, if she re-re-raises us, we are losing more often than winning, and should pass. However, I think that we are going to pass the winning hand often enough that it makes it very dangerous to re-raise in order to pass here. We might even have to put 10 4 suited in her range, and can be really be sure she is not going to move in with an
type hand, or maybe even
?
I think pot control is the best line as we come out alive alot more often. If the club comes on the turn or river, we can escape with chips, but we still probably get full value if it doesn't. By re-raising the flop, we have to jam the turn, and look for our bike if she has a flush draw which hits on the river.
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Numpty Dumpty
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Posts: 874
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #41 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:42:36 PM »
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 06:10:34 PM
Quote from: Numpty Dumpty on February 23, 2009, 05:28:51 PM
what actually happened?
Ohhhhh the suspence. I dont want to reveal just yet as reading people's different views is really helping me here.
bet you passed the flop. no balls.
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dousche
Sr. Member
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Posts: 667
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #42 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:45:49 PM »
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 06:32:09 PM
Quote from: dousche on February 23, 2009, 06:11:41 PM
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 05:45:05 PM
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 01:04:39 PM
Am I over valuing protecting a great stack at this early stage of the comp?
1)If we re-raise the flop, are we really thinking about getting away? We have an awful player who has just lost a big pot; can we really be certain that we are passing the losing hand if she moves all-in?
i think so. surely the only hand she could conceivable 4-bet with that we're ahead of is A4, other than that we have 4 outs.
and why do you not include A4 in her range stu?
i agree that QT and JT with a club are hands that fit into her range though. but do the overbets not suggest to you that she may be trying to protect her hand (be it a weak ace or baby flush)?
im here talking about the hand with tom and we're thinking that the 3-bet on the flop allows you to get away from a flush or set, although its possible that we'll mistakenly pass to a 4-bet from A4. if she flats the 3-bet then a pair and a club seems the most likely candidate, meaning that we can check-fold a club or jam/lead on a blank (cant remember the exact stacks). 3-betting her seems to define her hand so well that it makes up for having to check-pass in a big pot on the turn.
really interesting hand though blatch!
I kind of agree. I just think, if you wanted to know directions in the street, you wouldn't stop and ask a blind person. I think asking your opponent to define their hand is fine against an ABC player or a calling station, but this lady is much more dangerous. She is also a betting station, and has just lost a big pot. How can we ask her to define her hand when she hasn't got the slightest clue about hand values herself?
I agree that, if she re-re-raises us, we are losing more often than winning, and should pass. However, I think that we are going to pass the winning hand often enough that it makes it very dangerous to re-raise in order to pass here. We might even have to put 10 4 suited in her range, and can be really be sure she is not going to move in with an
type hand, or maybe even
?
I think pot control is the best line as we come out alive alot more often. If the club comes on the turn or river, we can escape with chips, but we still probably get full value if it doesn't. By re-raising the flop, we have to jam the turn, and look for our bike if she has a flush draw which hits on the river.
you're definitely starting to win me over.
the big question for me is how do blind people make their way to a £1000 ME?
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dousche
Sr. Member
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Posts: 667
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #43 on:
February 23, 2009, 06:46:32 PM »
Quote from: dousche on February 23, 2009, 06:45:49 PM
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 06:32:09 PM
Quote from: dousche on February 23, 2009, 06:11:41 PM
Quote from: easypickings on February 23, 2009, 05:45:05 PM
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 01:04:39 PM
Am I over valuing protecting a great stack at this early stage of the comp?
1)If we re-raise the flop, are we really thinking about getting away? We have an awful player who has just lost a big pot; can we really be certain that we are passing the losing hand if she moves all-in?
i think so. surely the only hand she could conceivable 4-bet with that we're ahead of is A4, other than that we have 4 outs.
and why do you not include A4 in her range stu?
i agree that QT and JT with a club are hands that fit into her range though. but do the overbets not suggest to you that she may be trying to protect her hand (be it a weak ace or baby flush)?
im here talking about the hand with tom and we're thinking that the 3-bet on the flop allows you to get away from a flush or set, although its possible that we'll mistakenly pass to a 4-bet from A4. if she flats the 3-bet then a pair and a club seems the most likely candidate, meaning that we can check-fold a club or jam/lead on a blank (cant remember the exact stacks). 3-betting her seems to define her hand so well that it makes up for having to check-pass in a big pot on the turn.
really interesting hand though blatch!
I kind of agree. I just think, if you wanted to know directions in the street, you wouldn't stop and ask a blind person. I think asking your opponent to define their hand is fine against an ABC player or a calling station, but this lady is much more dangerous. She is also a betting station, and has just lost a big pot. How can we ask her to define her hand when she hasn't got the slightest clue about hand values herself?
I agree that, if she re-re-raises us, we are losing more often than winning, and should pass. However, I think that we are going to pass the winning hand often enough that it makes it very dangerous to re-raise in order to pass here. We might even have to put 10 4 suited in her range, and can be really be sure she is not going to move in with an
type hand, or maybe even
?
I think pot control is the best line as we come out alive alot more often. If the club comes on the turn or river, we can escape with chips, but we still probably get full value if it doesn't. By re-raising the flop, we have to jam the turn, and look for our bike if she has a flush draw which hits on the river.
you're definitely starting to win me over.
the big question for me is how do blind people make their way to a £1000 ME?
not that im saying she's not terrible. just questioning why she's in the comp
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Blatch
Hero Member
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Posts: 2622
Re: Broadway M/E - Monster Stacks
«
Reply #44 on:
February 23, 2009, 07:17:17 PM »
Quote from: Numpty Dumpty on February 23, 2009, 06:42:36 PM
Quote from: Blatch on February 23, 2009, 06:10:34 PM
Quote from: Numpty Dumpty on February 23, 2009, 05:28:51 PM
what actually happened?
Ohhhhh the suspence. I dont want to reveal just yet as reading people's different views is really helping me here.
bet you passed the flop. no balls.
Bet you I know what the river card was ner ner
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