DEAL OR NO DEAL

[thetank]

£5
£10
£100
£250
£750
£5,000
£15,000
£250,000

£17,000 offered.

Deal of no deal?

No deal, firstly your box is worth around 33k in principle.

Secondly, once you take away the next there are about 5 times out of 8 that your box will double in value and 3 times out of 8 your box will halve in value. Much more to be gained than lost. £17k is not really a life changing amount for most people and the risk that you'll pick the 250k and the 15k box in your 3 picks is so slim that it's well worth the risk.

[thetank]

I saw an episode the other day when the guy comes on and the first thing he says is that he's not a gambler. Is there a worse thing to say on that program? He just opened the flood gates to some pissy offers from the banker.

[snoopy1239]

£5
£10
£100
£250
£750
£5,000
£15,000
£250,000

£17,000 offered.

Deal of no deal?

No deal, firstly your box is worth around 33k in principle.

Secondly, once you take away the next there are about 5 times out of 8 that your box will double in value and 3 times out of 8 your box will halve in value. Much more to be gained than lost. £17k is not really a life changing amount for most people and the risk that you'll pick the 250k and the 15k box in your 3 picks is so slim that it's well worth the risk.

17k is a lot of money to a lot of people tho. You telling me you wouldn't be tempted?

Finished like this:

£5
£10
£100
£750
£250,000

£30,000 offered.

Deal or no deal?

[Colchester Kev]

Cracking game today, the 30k deal was impossible to turn down IMO

[snoopy1239]

He spent a lot of time on that system. 

[thetank]

The bare maths say your box is worth 50k and so deal would lose you 20k. For me though if I were to gamble here....

2 times out of 5 you'll get a deal of 100k+ so make about 70k (assuming I'd take that deal)
3 times out 5 you'll get hee-haw and lose about 30K

(2*70 + 3*-30)divided by 5 = 10k

So it's 10k in EV I'd be giving up rather than 20k. I could live with giving that up for a guaranteed 30K so would do this deal.

I see life as a great big poker tournament and avoid huge scale marginal gambles ala bird in the hand styl-e.
(Poker isn't a metaphor for life, life is a metaphor for poker. Thankfully I'm still in my re-buy period)

[Indestructable]

they dont film 6 days a week though surely once a week the film 6 episodes in a day.

They film 3 shows a day and it is filmed in Bristol. So anyone wanting to go on the show would have to be based in Bristol for a few weeks (apart from breaks in filming).

[redsimon]

30K was a good deal. Don't be fooled into thinking he'd have ben offered £110K after the next 3 boxes as he had thought the £250K box was elsewhere and would have picked it if he'd carried on after the £30K deal. This is the part where the show goes down as they quite clearly don't "carry on picking the numbers they would've done"

[snoopy1239]

30K was a good deal. Don't be fooled into thinking he'd have ben offered £110K after the next 3 boxes as he had thought the £250K box was elsewhere and would have picked it if he'd carried on after the £30K deal. This is the part where the show goes down as they quite clearly don't "carry on picking the numbers they would've done"

Yes, I noticed that too. Didn't really make much sense.

Although it's not a great deal, I don't think there's too many folk who can afford to turn down 30k, especially on just a 1 in 5 shot.

[redsimon]

I loved his little grid showing the blue and red boxes over 20+ shows. Reminded me of the punters at the roulette wheel with their pens marking off the numbers hit and making their bets on that "information"

[snoopy1239]

I still can't believe his system didn't work.

Incredible. 

[SimonH]

I think his system fell down because he noted what each person (or replacement person) had in there box, where I believe he should have noted each box number instead. That would have been are much more sure system. 

[DTD-ACES]

This show has been here in France for 2 years , the boxes range from one cent , a shoe up to €500,000 , the banker definitely knows what is in the box , very rarely do people change their box , here every two boxes the banker makes an offer of money or the option to change their box , they use the theme from gladiator in the background , the contestants often get very emotional and when there are only two boxes left they all link arms .

Whatever is won is shared with a viewer who has called in which is how they make the money , hence it is possible to win one shoe as happened this week .

I will checkout the UK version when i get home on the 5th and let you know how it compares , i enjoy the French version as you dont have to understand what is being said to get involved .

Happy New Year to you all

ACES

[Indestructable]

In today's she knocked out in the first round:
£10,000
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£250,000

 

[AdamM]

oops

not watching today. looks like a bad game

hows the rest gone