DEAL OR NO DEAL

[bolt pp]

Very good episode today. Love it when people take a risk and it pays off.

5 boxes left:

10p
£1
35k
50k
75k

Good offer of 26k from the banker which she rejected

Two boxes left:

£1
50k

She knocks back 10k opens her box and scoops the 50

weeeeeeeeee

was stupid not taking the 26k though

[George2Loose]

Very good episode today. Love it when people take a risk and it pays off.

5 boxes left:

10p
£1
35k
50k
75k

Good offer of 26k from the banker which she rejected

Two boxes left:

£1
50k

She knocks back 10k opens her box and scoops the 50

weeeeeeeeee

was stupid not taking the 26k though

errrr no she won 50k. That's a difference of 24k (results orientation for the win obviously)

[rex008]

Very good episode today. Love it when people take a risk and it pays off.

5 boxes left:

10p
£1
35k
50k
75k

Good offer of 26k from the banker which she rejected

Two boxes left:

£1
50k

She knocks back 10k opens her box and scoops the 50

weeeeeeeeee

was stupid not taking the 26k though

Why?

I mean taking the deal is never +ev, for a start. In this case, even less so. The median box (35k) is higher than the mean (32ish), which is pretty unusual. A deal above the median might be a reasonable proposition in a normal game. In this case, she stood a fair chance of knocking out both blues with 3 guesses (30% by my calcs, 10% for all 3 reds, assuming we didn't know she had a red herself). In which case she's getting maybe 41k minimum offer, 61k if she has the 50/75. And deffo right to knock back 10k, which was risible. If I was the banker there I'd be offering maybe 18k as a +ev proposition for the banker that she might possibly go for. He'd shot himself in the foot by saying he'd offer 10k for a £1/75k scenario at the earlier point.

I don't even normally watch it 

[bolt pp]

its not worth the risk of ruining the whole game when youve got only 75 as the biggest, there's implied odds if the 250k is still there but she has to have a perfect round to get an offer that doubles her 26k and thats the best case scenario it must be -ev?(being results orientated this was proven if you like when she left a rag and 50k)

if you decide to go all the way fair enough but to say no to 26k to try and get a better offer when theres 2 left is stupid imo because it can only go up by 10k or so conversley she could smash the crap out of her game and leave 2 blues or even 35k and a blue or 50k and blue the offer has to go down.

[bolt pp]

the old dear that wanted the Bentley and didnt have a penny in her pocket that turned down 80k with 1p and 250k left was flair, she was this business!!!!

meh this bird was just stupid imo.

[rex008]

10 outcomes with 5 boxes left. 3 of those leave 2 reds, 1 leaves 2 blues, 6 leave a red and a blue. If you never deal with 2 boxes left, I calc her ev is about 31k with 5 boxes left (you get ev of average of value of the two boxes left). If you assume the banker is going to offer 10k with any 1 red and 1 blue like he implied, and you deal for 10k if this happens, your ev is about 21k. So taking the 26k is +ev if you know you'd deal for 10k with 1 of each left, otherwise it's not.

I strongly suspect she didn't work this out at the time and was just being a greedy bird though .

[Cf]

I snap deal the £26,000.

The disaster 10% round leaves us with nothing. Add to this the implied £10k offer on a red/blue finish (60% chance). I'm calling £26,000 a job well done.

[rex008]

Then I need to play poker with you more often .

[Cf]

Then I need to play poker with you more often .

Ah but I'm playing poker within my bankroll So i'll take the +ev decision.

The way you need to look at this one is as soon as you're offered £26,000 it's money in your bank account. Are you then willing to use it to gamble in this situation. I'm not. But that's because I'm not rich. If someone is well off they should probably carry on.

[rex008]

Ok, you've dealt at 26k. The game plays out, your box is opened, and you would have won 50k. Are you saying you wouldn't kick yourself rather hard? You'd be happy with the 26 when you would have won 50?

Plainly not degen enough .

[Cf]

Obv be slightly disappointed but I know I made the correct decision in the first place so can have no complaints. Can't be results oriented! Also, I'm sure with £26k to my name I'd get over it quite quickly

[rex008]

Obv be slightly disappointed but I know I made the -ev, hypernit decision in the first place so can have no complaints. Can't be results oriented! Also, I'm sure with £26k to my name I'd get over it quite quickly

fyp

Still, at least you'd probably let the £30 split pot mistake go after winning 26k.


Or not...

[George2Loose]

Getting back into this now.... the woman has just the unluckiest game I have ever seen!!!

She takes out 5 reds including 25k and 50k. Offer 3k. No deal

She then has a semi decent round. He offers her 10k. No deal

She then takes out the 250k and the 100k. Offer 500 quid. No deal

She is now left with 8 boxes with the 75k and 10k her only reds. Noel says she can retrive this game with an all blue round.

She obv takes out both the 75k and 10k meaning her highest box is 250 quid. Offer 20 quid. No deal

She takes out the 250 quid and her next two highest boxes leaving her with the second worst combo. 10p and 50p. She deals on 13p! lol

Noel opens her box and it's 50p! Pretty inconsequential but she couldn't even grim the banker of 3p

gg ul!!!

[ripple11]

 Caught the end of todays show..... the definition of ul .

 .....and WTF with the Banker offering 13p....??. If its 10k and 50k, he certainly doesn't offer 13K.

 done out of at least 7 p IMO.

[suzanne]

Tomorrow the newbie is Linda who comes from Liverpool, she plays a mean game of poker and im looking forward to seeing her game.