losing faith in the maths - must read!

[ezzo]

This has been written to explain my experience with extreme variance. i hope people can draw from this some resolve for when they run worse than a hoofless beach donkey on an ice rink.

I make a living playing multi table sit n go's and believe completely in the maths. I do not believe in the whole 'poker is rigged' theory nor do i belive in the 'cash out curse' or any other tin pot theory. Nor am i nieve - i know big companys do and will defraud their clients (enron for example) but i still think that online poker, for the whole is based on ethical RnG systems that work

The following is only my experience and is up to others to decide if it is down to bad luck, variance or rigging. i already know what I think

So it begins last September after playing at one of the nets largest and most respected poker sites.

I played about 10 tornys and in each case, was knocked out when i was in a coin flip situation. To lose 10 crucial coin flips in a row (all of them allin pre flop) is nasty but happens all the time. Over the following week, i noticed that i couldnt win a single all in coin flip and so, i grabbed pen and paper by my desk and started to record all future coin flips. The criteria was that it had to be an all-in preflop situation and the cards had to be a pair versus overcards. These were the results throughout the following week.

ak v 77    lost
aq v 88   lost
88 v aj     lost
10 J v 22  lost
ak v 33     lost
qk v 55     lost
44 vs aq     lost
33 vs 9 10  lost
aj v 99       lost
a10 v 88     lost
33 vs ak     lost
66 vs j9     lost
ak v qq      lost
44 v 78      lost
ak v 99      Won
a9 v 55     lost
1010 v ak  lost
kq v 88   lost
66 v q9   lost
99 v aj   lost
ak v 44  lost
66 v a9  lost
99 v A10  lost
KQ v 22    lost
KQ v 44    lost
99 v KJ    lost
1010 v AJ  lost
AQ  v 1010  lost
88 v A9     lost

I emailed the poker site asking for some type of reassurance and they explained RnG and variance etc. I carried on and things went from bad to worse. Now my AA and KK couldnt hold up either

AA v 77  lost
ak v 55  lost
kk v99   lost
aa v qq  lost
99 v aj  lost

At my wits end, i decided that if it happened again, i would simply go to another site. I played the $100 freezout, grinded my way to the bubble, got it all in with 88 v Aj and obviously lost, had a few chips left so shoved 2 hands later with AK, go called by 44 and knew i was gonna lose and did.

Ive only posted a few samples about, the total tally was 57 coin flips with 2 wins

I still have faith in online poker but its hard, really hard to continue when this happens

Anyone else experienced this?

[The Camel]

This has been written to explain my

experience with extreme variance. i hope people can

draw from this some resolve for when they run worse

than a hoofless beach donkey on an ice rink.

I make a living playing multi table sit n go's and

believe completely in the maths. I do not believe in

the whole 'poker is rigged' theory nor do i belive in

the 'cash out curse' or any other tin pot theory. Nor

am i nieve - i know big companys do and will defraud

their clients (enron for example) but i still think

that online poker, for the whole is based on ethical

RnG systems that work

The following is only my experience and is up to

others to decide if it is down to bad luck, variance

or rigging. i already know what I think

So it begins last September after playing at one of

the nets largest and most respected poker sites.

I played about 10 tornys and in each case, was

knocked out when i was in a coin flip situation. To

lose 10 crucial coin flips in a row (all of them

allin pre flop) is nasty but happens all the time.

Over the following week, i noticed that i couldnt win

a single all in coin flip and so, i grabbed pen and

paper by my desk and started to record all future

coin flips. The criteria was that it had to be an

all-in preflop situation and the cards had to be a

pair versus overcards. These were the results throughout the following week.

ak v 77    lost
aq v 88   lost
88 v aj     lost
10 J v 22  lost
ak v 33     lost
qk v 55     lost
44 vs aq     lost
33 vs 9 10  lost
aj v 99       lost
a10 v 88     lost
33 vs ak     lost
66 vs j9     lost
ak v qq      lost
44 v 78      lost
ak v 99      Won
a9 v 55     lost
1010 v ak  lost
kq v 88   lost
66 v q9   lost
99 v aj   lost
ak v 44  lost
66 v a9  lost
99 v A10  lost
KQ v 22    lost
KQ v 44    lost
99 v KJ    lost
1010 v AJ  lost
AQ  v 1010  lost
88 v A9     lost

I emailed the poker site asking for some type of reassurance and they explained RnG and variance etc. I carried on and things went from bad to worse. Now my AA and KK couldnt hold up either

Impossible to read.

Delete and try and again.

[booder]

welcome to my world

[Wardonkey]

50p

[kinboshi]

So it begins last September after playing at one of the nets largest and most respected poker sites.

and welcome to blonde poker

[Ricardov83]

mbn to bink with the AK!

[ZZZZZZZROPE]

lol sounds like a standard week at teh pokerz

[TightEnd]

ak v 99      Won


well played

[TheChipPrince]

I emailed the poker site asking for some type of reassurance

This is the best bit, surprising really they didn't just admit the site is rigged, keep at 'em I say...

[ACE2M]

£27.50?

[Jon MW]

...
the total tally was 57 coin flips with 2 wins
...

This is weird because in my last 57 coin flips I've lost 2

[tikay]

Variance, Mr Ezzo, is a wonderful thing.

You seem to be implying that the site - "one of the largest & most respected" (& thus making shed-loads of money, we can safely assume) has rigged the RNG to make you lose.

Why exactly would they do that?

 But welcome to blonde, & Happy Motoring.

[AndrewT]

I'm pretty sure I was the guy with the 99 - I definitely remember losing a race with them.

I run so bad losing a race against the Eddie the Eagle of flipping.

[G1BTW]

Variance, Mr Ezzo, is a wonderful thing.

You seem to be implying that the site - "one of the largest & most respected" (& thus making shed-loads of money, we can safely assume) has [people on the inside who] rigged the RNG server software to make you lose so that they can see your hole cards and make them win.

Why exactly would they do that?

 But welcome to blonde, & Happy Motoring.

fyp

[G1BTW]

I played a 6 seater sit n go last week. I got dealt about 120 hands. AA once, KK once, and QQ seven times. SEVEN times. In tens of thousands of games I have never even had QQ three times, nor four, nor five. SEVEN! Not rigged, obv, but the chances of it happening...