Interesting WSOP bet

[Chompy]

Been looking at some poker prices to kill time.
Sportingbet bet as follows on the winning hand in the WSOP main event...

6/4 2 Pairs
5/2 1 Pair
19/4 Sraight Or Flush
11/2 Three of a kind
10/1 Full House, Four Of A Kind or Straight Flush
12/1 High card

I think there's a cracking bet to be had here. Anyone got any views?

[The Camel]

12/1 High card

imo

[The Camel]

33/1 Martin De Knijff to be top European player is huge value too. He only plays about 5 tournaments a year nowadays (he has got into sports betting) and has a stunning record:

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=65

I would make him about 14/1 in this list.

[AndrewT]

Surely the WSOP final will be deep enough heads-up that they're not going to get AQ v KJ all-in pre-flop and miss. One of the two will have at least a pair to begin with.

Unless someone allows themselves to get blinded down to nothing, or a short stack watches the two bigger stacks knock each other out three-handed?

[maldini32]

Been looking at some poker prices to kill time.
Sportingbet bet as follows on the winning hand in the WSOP main event...

6/4 2 Pairs
5/2 1 Pair
19/4 Sraight Or Flush
11/2 Three of a kind
10/1 Full House, Four Of A Kind or Straight Flush
12/1 High card

I think there's a cracking bet to be had here. Anyone got any views?

[Chompy]

12/1 high card a big price imo

[The Camel]

Surely the WSOP final will be deep enough heads-up that they're not going to get AQ v KJ all-in pre-flop and miss. One of the two will have at least a pair to begin with.

Unless someone allows themselves to get blinded down to nothing, or a short stack watches the two bigger stacks knock each other out three-handed?

This is a good point.

It would be a much better bet in one of the tv donkfests like the Poker Million or the 888.com Universe Open.

But still at 12/1 I would take the chance. Should be half that price.

Good luck getting a bet of more than £2 on with those tossers however.

[Chompy]

I agree, just a good price in theory.
More chance of getting on with Bet£3.65

[EvilPie]

If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.

AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve.

This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway.

So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet
Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst
The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40.
One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account

Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1

Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's

[The Camel]

If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.

AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve.

This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway.

So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet
Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst
The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40.
One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account

Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1

Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's

Go on then.

You've got me.

How much can I have on at 16/1?

[EvilPie]

If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.

AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve.

This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway.

So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet
Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst
The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40.
One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account

Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1

Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's

Go on then.

You've got me.

How much can I have on at 16/1?

How much do you want?

Obviously don't need to do it now and my exposure limit is likely to change before November.

At the moment it's low but it could improve.

I assume you were only thinking of a friendly bet anyway, just slightly more than SportingOdds £2?

[The Camel]

If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.

AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve.

This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway.

So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet
Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst
The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40.
One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account

Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1

Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's

Go on then.

You've got me.

How much can I have on at 16/1?

How much do you want?

Obviously don't need to do it now and my exposure limit is likely to change before November.

At the moment it's low but it could improve.

I assume you were only thinking of a friendly bet anyway, just slightly more than SportingOdds £2?

I'll have as much as you're comfortable laying.

[Chompy]

I'll have £60 to win a bag if you're offering?

[TheChipPrince]

If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.

AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve.

This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway.

So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet
Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst
The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40.
One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account

Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1

Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's

Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say

[The Camel]

If they happen to get it in with AQ and KJ there's only about a 30% chance that neither will end up with a pair anyway.

AK vs AK would be best chance at about 60% to not improve.

This doesn't take in to account the chance of the board pairing anyway.

So you need 2 people playing the biggest HU ever to get it all in pre without a pair - Pretty slim, not good for our bet
Their cards to not pair up - 60/40 at best, 30/70 at worst
The board not to pair - Not sure. I'd guess about 60/40.
One of them not to make a random lucky straight/flush - Not a major problem but needs taking in to account

Worst bet ever imo even at 12 to 1

Edit: If anyone's betting on this let me know. I might give you better than 12's

Thats pretty much assuming the stacks are even though, surely a fair chance of one being outchipped by 6-1/7-1, shoving on several occasions then getting a call by a bigger A, very difficult to price i'd say

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