ICM Question

[T_Mar]

Small stake turbo MTT on stars, down to final 4, the 2 shorter stacks have tightened up trying to ladder - The big stack has been pushing each time its folded to him.  Should I be calling or folding the following 2 hands.. obv I'm ahead of his range in both but thinking about the impact of having 2 shorter stacks and the payouts etc

If any ICM gurus can advise what the right move is would be appreciated

Payouts as follows:

1st $825
2nd $601
3rd $443
4th $334



Seat 3: xTheWall (109015 in chips)
Seat 7: devinr12 (464589 in chips)
Seat 8: T_Mar79 (205756 in chips)
Seat 9: AyoungmoneyA (161140 in chips)
xTheWall: posts the ante 1000
devinr12: posts the ante 1000
T_Mar79: posts the ante 1000
AyoungmoneyA: posts the ante 1000
T_Mar79: posts small blind 4000
AyoungmoneyA: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to T_Mar79 [ ]
xTheWall: folds
devinr12: raises 455589 to 463589 and is all-in
T_Mar79:


Seat 3: xTheWall (89265 in chips)
Seat 7: devinr12 (500839 in chips)
Seat 8: T_Mar79 (207006 in chips)
Seat 9: AyoungmoneyA (143390 in chips)
xTheWall: posts the ante 1250
devinr12: posts the ante 1250
T_Mar79: posts the ante 1250
AyoungmoneyA: posts the ante 1250
T_Mar79: posts small blind 5000
AyoungmoneyA: posts big blind 10000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to T_Mar79 [ ]
xTheWall: folds
devinr12: raises 489589 to 499589 and is all-in
T_Mar79:

[GreekStein]

You have to call TT

[Blatch]

1) Fold

2) Call

[Ironside]

1) Fold

2) Call

+1

[T_Mar]

Right I've attempted to follow Longy's ICM calcs to work these out (never done these before so I probably fcuked it up, if anyone can be arsed to check em would be appreciated).......At the time I folded the 5's  and called the 10's btw

I used following range (tried with and without JJ-AA, AK thinking he may not be open shoving these, but I dont really know - it doesn't make a whole heap of difference to the answer tho)


   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    53.685%     53.19%    00.49%        2191328124     20376744.00   { 55 }
Hand 1:    46.315%     45.82%    00.49%        1887721812     20376744.00   { TT-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o }


   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    68.103%     67.67%    00.44%        2551385376     16434084.00   { TT }
Hand 1:    31.897%     31.46%    00.44%        1186239864     16434084.00   { TT-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o }


He may of been pushing even wider but had to guess at something


Hand 1

Fold = $548
Call and win = $656
Call and Lose = $0

.53*656 = 347.68

= Clear fold



Hand 2

Fold = $555
Call and win = $660
Call and lose = 0

.68*660 = $448


= Clear Fold


So assuming this lot is correct (?!) looks like I made bad call with the 10's

[doubleup]

Dont think you've done that correctly as you have 4th prize locked up.  Do the calc again with  3rd 109 2nd 267 1st 491.

I suspect that TT might still come up as a fold, but closer.

[T_Mar]

Dont think you've done that correctly as you have 4th prize locked up.  Do the calc again with  3rd 109 2nd 267 1st 491.

I suspect that TT might still come up as a fold, but closer.

ok, tried again for TT hand... hopefully this is correct??

fold = $223
call and win =  $326

.68*326 = 221.68

So its actually pretty borderline!

cheers

[Moskvich]

Yep, think it's borderline. You need a lot of pot equity against him and if he's got even one overcard it isn't that fantastically exciting a spot to be in. Wiz reckons that if he's shoving 40% you can only call JJ+. And if he's shoving 100% then you can only call 88+ (no unpaired hands). Don't imagine anyone's actually folding TT here though. The 55 is a big fold - 88+ AKs is a call if he's shoving 100%.

[outragous76]

i think you are looking at thos too marginally

If you hadnt made the money - i would agree u could fold TT

HOWEVER - you have, and you are talking about pay scales. The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win.

If he has been open shoving his range is ATC. TT has this so crushed that this is a fist pump snap call (whereas if you havent made the  money it is a trivial fold).

There is not enough chip disparity between you and the others to make this a fold EVER

if it was like

CL = 500k
you 350k
v1 = 120k
v2 = 95k

then you could argue there was a possible fold. In this case you can never fold.

[doubleup]

The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win.

What?

Its either a call or a fold based on the remaining payouts.  What more info is required?

[Moskvich]

The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win.

What?

Its either a call or a fold based on the remaining payouts.  What more info is required?

+1 to the what? ... I'm not quite sure what you mean, but I think you might be thinking that ICM is simply a synonym for "it's a disaster when you call on the bubble and lose so you have to call very tight". As doubleup points out, it does of course take into account the rewards as well as the risks of making a call.

In this case, one of the things it's taking into account is that the rewards of winning this hand with TT aren't actually that massive - we'll go from 2nd in chips to a non-dominant chip lead. In other circumstances, with different chip stacks, of course the answer would be different.

(One thing that it admittedly doesn't take into account is whether the chips gained when you win give you a bigger edge on the field than you've got at the moment - ie if it's the case that winning this hand then allows you to steal more than your share of blinds, because of the way they're playing, or something).

whereas if you havent made the  money it is a trivial fold

Not sure what you mean by this either - seems a bit of a sweeping statement... You mean in this situation, with these stacks, but only three places paid?

[celtic]

Fck ICM. A= Fold B= Call. Quite simple imo.

[Blatch]

for ICM you also need to factor in your edge factor, obviously this is different for each player and his opponents

[doubleup]

fyp

[T_Mar]

i think you are looking at thos too marginally

If you hadnt made the money - i would agree u could fold TT

HOWEVER - you have, and you are talking about pay scales. The one thing which strict ICM calculations dont tell you is what happens if you win.

If he has been open shoving his range is ATC. TT has this so crushed that this is a fist pump snap call (whereas if you havent made the  money it is a trivial fold).

There is not enough chip disparity between you and the others to make this a fold EVER

if it was like

CL = 500k
you 350k
v1 = 120k
v2 = 95k

then you could argue there was a possible fold. In this case you can never fold.

This makes no sense to me... if I hadn't made the money then I would be trying to accumulate chips as normal by getting it in with the best of it.... ie This situation would be a clear call as I am ~2/1 fav against the range i used....... Its because of the fact that we are in the money and the decision has a bearing on the amount we going to make that its a borderline decison