League Winner Bets 09/10

[Horneris]

I havent seen a thread about this anywhere yet so here goes.

Premiership

Chelsea for me @ 9/4. I think Chelsea & Liverpool will draw away from the pack this year with the Blues just being victorious. I can't have Scum after losing their best player by miles, the man who scored a third of their goals and created almost everyting and also Tevez.

When you put Park, Valencia, Carrick, Scholes up against Gerrard, Mascherano, Riera, Kuyt and Essien, Lampard, Cole and Malouda i think there is an apparent bridge in quality.

I also fancy Bolton (norrrr theres no white!!!), Villa & Stoke to have decent seasons. Might look at Bolton on the handicap market.


Championship

West Brom @ 6/1 are the best bet in any of the divisions imo. 6/1 seems massive for a team that has an absolute abundance of quality. The team also seems settled and the players happy to play for the club which seems the difference between them compared to the other relegated teams. They have players such as Carson, Zuiverloom, Cech, Barnett, Valero, Koren, Greening, Morrison, Bednar, Miller, Cox, all of whom will pwn at this level. The only concerning aspect is the manager change with Di Matteo coming in, but at least that was sorted out early and i dont think he can stop them winning the league.

I think the top six could also comprise of Sheff Utd, Reading, Cardiff, Forest and possibly just Boro.

Swansea will have a better season than most people think, someone predicted they will come 19th on Sky Sports today which is BS, and Bristol City should do ok too with a couple of astute signings this summer.

Ive also backed Forest EW for the league @ 30/1 as i highlighted in another thread.


League One

Millwall & MK Dons look overpriced. The 2 teams along with Peterboro who were challenging for 2nd all year and they are 18/1 and 12/1 respectively this season, and i dont see a massive challenge from the 3 relegated clubs from the championship. MK Dons have added to their squad shrewdly but the appointment of Paul Ince is a worry from a betting perspective (although a joy from a Leeds fans one). I cant see why Millwall are 18/1. Kenny Jackett is a good manager and they havent lost any1 important in pre season.

Leeds will probably come 3rd because my lifes shit and im an eternal pessimist.

Huddersfield, Charlton & Brighton all look overrated by the bookies. I fancy Bristol Rovers and Colchester to do well and challenge for the playoffs.


League Two

Who is even in this division?

York will probs win it i guess.


Potential Bets

Chelsea to win the Prem @ 9/4 with a number of bookies.
Would be looking to include this is in a multiple bet as cant tie up a huge amount for a year on a 9/4 shot.

Bolton on the Handicap +42 pts @ 15/1 with Hills.
Win SGL probs.

West Brom to win the C'ship @ 6/1 with Lads.
Will be having a large WIN single on this aswell as including it in multiples.

Millwall to win League One @ 18/1 with Laddies.
Might have an EW single on this.

MK Dons to win League One @ 12/1 with Laddies.
Ladbrokes are offering the best price on almost all league one clubs.
Probs go win only on this one as i think with Ince in charge, they will either be very good, or kinda tez.

Possible Multiple Bets (just for fun like):

£50 Dbl on Chelsea & West Brom returns £1,137.50
£20 Dbl on West Brom & Millwall returns £2,660
£20 Dbl on West Brom & MK Dons returns £1,820
£10 Tbl on Chelsea, West Brom & Millwall returns £4,322.50
£10 tbl on Chelsea, West Brom & MK Dons returns £2,957.50


Will be fun to look back at this thread at the end of the season and see how bad my bets proved.

[thetank]

West Brom very much the banker then?

[Horneris]

West Brom very much the banker then?

lol.

others share views plz.

[KarmaDope]

I was under the impression that Ince was a good manager for lower leagues - just not good enough for Prem. Plus, he's been at MK before and won promotion iirc. Confused as to why this is a worry?

Views to follow.

1. Prem:

I agree with Brent, it's between Chelsea and Liverpool and it's going to be very very tight. Much will depend on fitness of players like Essien, Lampard, Gerrard and Torres, and the Chelsea squad is getting that little bit older. I just can't see MU recovering from the loss of Ronaldo and Tevez, and to replace them with Valencia and Owen? Definitely a step down in class. However, I'm gonna go with Liverpool at 4.5 @ Ladbrokes for 2 reasons, because I'm a Kopite and because Chelsea at 3.25 just seem a little bit short.

2. Championship:

West Brom are the favourites by a huge margin, they have a very settled squad and are full of players who pwn the Championship but are squad players for Prem. If they do go up and sign 1-2 top quality players then they could stay up next year.

Stay away from Newcastle, awful bet there.

Would be more tempted to get West Brom +1 in the handicap at 18/1 but I know fk all about handicap bets - explanation plz?

I don't know much about the other 2 divisions - but one bet I might be looking at is Chester to stay up in the Conference now they just got a 25 point penalty. Teams generally go down with about 35 points and I can see Chester getting 60 points easily in that division - deapite all their troubles they have a half decent squad and are one of the "bigger" teams in that league.

[Longy]

Prem- Despite the fact that Man U have lost Ronaldo, I still think them and Chelsea are the teams to beat. If anything i think the market has overreacted to the loss of Ronaldo and any further drifting on their price will tempt me to lump on (as Camel said elsewhere). I think Liverpool still rely too much on three or four key players to challenge over a 38 game season and don't see it being different this time.


Championship- Yeah i like your West brom bet and I think Sheffield United will do well but the price is too skinny.

League 1- Mk Dons is the bet i really like and I actually rate Ince as a manager especially at this level. Regarding Norwich i would have encouraged people to lay them about 4 weeks ago but we have made some decent signings and had a good pre season, so I am hoping we will be competive and the price on us at about 8/1 is probably about fair.

League 2- Well Notts Co are the out of nowhere faves but the price is far too short on a team that is going have to buy a lot to become a league winner. I would be tempted to go for bradford at 13.5 betfair, biggest team in the division playing in front of 5 figure crowds.


I am tez at sports betting though and the best advice I can give is to do the exact opposite of what i recommend.

Man U, WBA, Mk Dons and Bradford ftw.

[Horneris]

Interesting points, i definetly think Norwich will be there or thereabouts in the top 4/6, just didnt stand out as value, as you said 8/1 is about right.

On a serious note regarding League Two, Bury and Bradford do stand out, but i dont know enough about the league to part with my cash, it would just mainly be a guess.

[Josedinho]

Agree with most of what you've said.

Prem - I fancy Liverpool over Chelsea just because Rafa knows the prem. I know Carlo is no mug but i still think he may be tweaking as he goes along. Looked at the handicap but didn't see any outstanding value.

Championship - I don't think Newcastle will be as bad as people think. I wrote out my league table prediction today for handicap betting purposes and i had West Brom and Boro top 2. As you said Brom are a quality championship team and as long as Di Matteo is alright they will do well. Reading Sheff Utd Forest and Newcastle made up my top 6. I've also backed Crystal Palace +28 and Sheffield Wednesday +31 on the handicap with Coral.

I've had mutliples of the following with Coral
Liverpool to win the league - 4/1
Pompey to go down - 11/4
West Brom to win the league - 6/1
Watford to be relegated - 7/2 (available at 9/2 at Stan James which i think is massive)

[Blatch]

Liverpool with Torres Top Goal - cant believe he is 4/1

WBA

League 2 is too open

Grimbsy value shout at 33's or otherwise Rotherham

gg

[nosey-p]

Division two, only 1 team  ROTHERHAM

[The Camel]

I've had four bets:

Man Utd to win the Premiership @ 5/2

I've bought Aston Villa points @ 56

Burnley to finish above Hull @ 6/5

Marek Saganowski to be top Div 2 scorer @ 14/1.

Oh and a little bet on Michael Owen not to score 12 goals this season...

[Matt50]

Prem - Man Utd
Championship - Sheff Utd
League 1 - Norwich
League 2 - Rotherham
Conference - Luton

Trebles, 4-folds and Accumulator

[TheChipPrince]

I wrote a bit on mine on my home comp, will post later...

[TheChipPrince]

Brent - Bolton @ +40 on betfair handicap are around 25/1, only around £50 available though...

[Pelham Boy]

Championship - Ipswich
League One - Norwich
League Two - Bury

Doubles and E/W treble

[bookiebasher]

Best value bet ive had in years..... 40-1 hull , wolves and portsmouth to be relagated

Spurs w/o big 4 4-1

Match bets..... 6-5 burnley v hull , 1-1 stoke v portsmouth , 1-1 leics v derby , 1-1 cardiff v forest

Torres top prem g/s 4-1

Ladbrokes were offering 4-11 portsmouth and 2-5 sunderland  ( 10-11 the pair ) to finish in bottom half.
Was going to fill my boots but , as always with laddies , it lasted as long as TK in the £500 at luton.