ICM vs going for the win

[MC]

18man SNG
5 left
4 paid

I'm sure ICM suggests you should fold here on the bubble with blinds still kinda low

However... this guy had 60/33 stats with Steal at 60%. We assume he is shoving any two. Does this make it a call?


***** Hand History for Game 31497884506 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, August 11, 12:11:35 ET 2009
Table 186347450 1 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 3: Gambler_DK ( $4332.00 USD )
Seat 4: korgan ( $7565.00 USD )
Seat 5: Fickgame ( $4263.00 USD )
Seat 6: epitomised ( $3897.00 USD )
Seat 7: MIKEDIE ( $6943.00 USD )
Gambler_DK posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
korgan posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Fickgame posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
epitomised posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
MIKEDIE posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Fickgame posts small blind [$200.00 USD].
epitomised posts big blind [$400.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to epitomised [   ]
MIKEDIE folds
Gambler_DK folds
korgan folds
Fickgame raises ALL-IN [$4038.00 USD]

[UpTheMariners]

i think its a fold but aint played sngs for a long time

[outragous76]

icm probably says fold

but given you are the short stack here - i would be calling

[cambo]

fold is prob right but im prone to making a " fuck you " call lots here

[boldie]

Call as I think he's raising ridic wide here if he's any decent so you could well be ahead.




Sits back and waits until inevitably I am proven wrong.

[Jon MW]

Call as I think he's raising ridic wide here if he's any decent so you could well be ahead.




Sits back and waits until inevitably I am proven wrong.

A6 v any two cards - you're not going to be well ahead

[boldie]

Call as I think he's raising ridic wide here if he's any decent so you could well be ahead.




Sits back and waits until inevitably I am proven wrong.

A6 v any two cards - you're not going to be well ahead

True...that's why I said "Well be" ahead..which is completely different from "be well" ahead.

Anyone else need an English lesson from a foreigner?

[gatso]

Call as I think he's raising ridic wide here if he's any decent so you could well be ahead.

so do you call with T2, J4, 85? they could well be ahead as well

[TheChipPrince]

I would grimace and fold, we know 'call' is a swear word at this stage. 

I would call with A9s, A-10+, 55+...

[thetank]

If he's defo shoving 100% and the level of the competition is strong enough that you're not going to want to wait for any minimum edge over 0.05 then a call is ok. (calling is +0.06)



Calculated on 40:30:20:10 payout

As you can see from the graph though, if he's not shoving 100% it becomes -EV pretty quickly. (If he's folding and giving you a walk 1 time out of 20 then it's already -EV)

Ok time for a spite call vs a shove happy regular perhaps, but against a random I think it's definately time to let this go.

ICM is going for the win if you define winning as making the most money and maximizing your expected value.

[Longy]

Clear fold the way the stacks are set up we still have close to 10bbs. A6 is a horrid hand to be calling off with here as it is not very far of many hands.

[gatso]

this is the second pha thread in the last week where the op has in some way implied that making a poor/borderline call is in some way going ftw while a good pass isn't

passing is good sometimes chaps

[thetank]

I would call with A9s, A-10+, 55+...

Range looks ok, but I'd bear in mind that hands like KQ, KJ, and KTs all do better than 55 when you're thinking about calling vs a wide shoving range. (A9, A8s and A7s also do a lot better than 55 in this spot too)

66+ ftw (and some other high junk)

[MC]

LOL I've been typing this out whilst tank has been working his magic, same kinda conclusion:

Yeah, I would usually fold in this spot, and apply a similar range as ChipPrince, perhaps include A9, KQ and KJ as well. It was just something about his uber-agressive stats that made me make the call. He had 52 offsuit and I faded any sickness. But after the hand, I thought it was the wrong decision.

SNG Wizard confirms how close this is.

If he is shoving 100% of hands and we consider ourselves to have no edge it says we should call.
55+, A5+, A3s+, K9+, K7s+, QK, Q9s, JTs

But if he's shoving 100% of hands and we afford ourselves a 0.1 edge it says we should pass:
55+, A7+, A3s+, KT+, K8s+, QJ, QTs+

[Longy]

The problem is finding anyone who is shoving 100% here, a lot of people like myself don't shove the very bottom of their range as form of range balancing. If i can get people to go "wow he passed a marginal atc spot" it allows me to keep peoples ranges a bit tighter than they should be.

I would also suggest that your read on this guy is nowhere near strong enough to "know" he is shoving atc, in these spots a bit of interpolation is required. He is shoving wide but you don't know whether his "wide" is 60% or 100% and if it is 60% you have made a massive mistake. So there is always going to be a margin of error in your reads and you should adjust accordingly.