Pre flop gamble 100bb Deep

[roscopiko]

Interested on peoples thoughts here please.

Bit of history with this player and have been at his table for over 2 hours.  The tournament is $50k G $3+R and there are 3000 runners remaining.  Winning this pot would put us in top 10 and imo give us free reign on a weak table.

Villain has doubles us 2 hands previous when open shoving 200BB with 55 vs our AA.  We have seen villain shove all pairs and AK on at least 10 occasions in this games.

Question is, if you can happily (say 95% sure) put villain on range of AJ- and most likely worst case KQ do we need to call pre in this spot so deep where we are >60% fav or should we wait for a better post flop spot???


PokerStars Game #31592646401: Tournament #185960792, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (125/250) - 2009/08/13 22:22:02 CET [2009/08/13 16:22:02 ET]
Table '185960792 118' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: malesur (16425 in chips)
Seat 2: andersmeli (20109 in chips)
Seat 3: mutataboy (8062 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: Cuadratura (21866 in chips)
Seat 5: Blazer95 (4750 in chips)
Seat 6: wellwill (16976 in chips)
Seat 7: roscopiko (28669 in chips)
Seat 8: kanalratte (14595 in chips)
Seat 9: AALeNomadeKK (45105 in chips)
malesur: posts the ante 30
andersmeli: posts the ante 30
mutataboy: posts the ante 30
Cuadratura: posts the ante 30
Blazer95: posts the ante 30
wellwill: posts the ante 30
roscopiko: posts the ante 30
kanalratte: posts the ante 30
AALeNomadeKK: posts the ante 30
kanalratte: posts small blind 125
AALeNomadeKK: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to roscopiko   
malesur: folds
andersmeli: folds
mutataboy: folds
Cuadratura: calls 250
Blazer95: folds
wellwill: calls 250
roscopiko: raises 750 to 1000
kanalratte: folds
AALeNomadeKK: folds
Cuadratura: calls 750
wellwill: raises 15946 to 16946 and is all-in

[MANTIS01]

We have seen villain shove all pairs and A-K on at least 10 occassions. Yet we are 95% certain his range is behind A-J. Why would we think that?

[roscopiko]

We have seen villain shove all pairs and A-K on at least 10 occassions. Yet we are 95% certain his range is behind A-J. Why would we think that?

Good point, not explained.  The fact he has initially limped where as he has open shoved with these hands.

[ZZZZZZZROPE]

meh alot of bad players will limp aa kk type hands then jam when u raise. personally i fold and find better spots which im sure theyl b plenty in a 3r

[roscopiko]

meh alot of bad players will limp aa kk type hands then jam when u raise. personally i fold and find better spots which im sure theyl b plenty in a 3r

ok, agreed its not 100% he doesnt have a monster, if you ignore this actual hand my question is more if you were offered a min of 60/40 with these stacks do you fold and wait for better post flop situations or gamble for 100bb on a 60/40 spot

[BulldozerD]

snap fold - we are out of the rebuy period and AJ isn't in great shape

[gatso]

have we folded yet? there's nothing to suggest we're ahead of a single hand in his range

[MC]

super standard fold

[paulhouk03]

easy fold

u have lots of chips find a better spot
but i will never fold ak and QQ+