Three mistakes (go easy on me, it was late)

[Pyso]

Hi folks. It’s a £1/£2 cash game at DTD, after my elimination from the deepstack. The table is 5 handed at the time of this hand. My stack is £350 thanks to a nice bluff catch from a cocky kid who looked about 12.

Anyway, I know I made at least three mistakes in this hand but as played, I want to know whether the pot is offering me enough to call the re-raise on the river, given the range of hands I put him on.

Here is the hand.

Five handed, two limpers, button raises to £11. This is about the going rate and nothing out of the ordinary really. He is a visitor from Leeds down for the deepstack but I have played with him before and he is knowledgable, if a little chatty. I am guessing he is a winning player and capable of many a move. He has me covered.

So at this point his raise from the button on a five handed table doesn’t necessarily mean great strength just yet.

I am in the Small blind with 

I re-raise to £37.

I know, mistake number one - bloating the pot out of position with a hand that isn’t all that hot. It does have the desired effect however of getting me heads up when he calls my re-raise (after a little deliberation).

So, to the flop and the pot is now £80

Flop is


I figure to lead out because I have represented proper strength pre-flop and it won’t make a lot of sense if I don’t continue. If I check he will bet for sure and my 88s will look even worse. However, I have been betting too much in these spots before so I tone it down a bit and bet £45.

He calls, again after a little dwell.

The pot is now £170.

Turn is 

I am now feeling the pinch of being out of position. I don’t put him on KK on AA because it would probably have all flown in pre-flop. It is a possibility however. AK is looking likely as he hasn’t exactly come out blazing either. A similar hand to mine is possible. QQ is a nightmare, as is AQ, and both are possible.

I check, he checks back. It appears neither of us want a huge pot. Me checking is quite possibly mistake number two.

The river is

Bugger. Oh, no, hang on, he is now less likely to have QQ or AQ.

I am now feeling the most likely hands he has are nines, tens, jacks, AK or total air. The latter seems the least likely. He may have 88 as well but of course that’s now seemingly as likely as quads.

I reckon it’s

50% chance he has nines, tens or jacks
30% AK
20% air (has been floating me) or smaller pair

I now have to decide what to do. I am the one repping strength, or at least I was until my testicles shrunk and I checked the turn. If I check he will bet. He has to bet the best hand for value or he has to bet if he is bluffing in order to win. So I know he will bet.

If I make a blocking bet he may feel compelled to just call if his hand has middling showdown value and this may then save me a few quid over a larger river bet that I may end up calling.

The downside is he may well re-raise and I will end up calling a larger bet than if I had just checked it to him in the first place.

I bet £50. Quite possibly mistake number three.

I know that he knows that this is a blocker bet. I know that he is capable of a river re-raise here with AK. I am half expecting a raise here.

Sure enough, quite deliberately, he says “I am going to raise”. He puts in the fifty, then slowly adds another £100.

There is now £370 in the pot and it’s £100 to call, so I am getting 3.7 to 1, or 3.6 to 1 once we take away the rake.

So, given his range, can I call here? I am losing to 99, tens, JJ, AQ, QQ, KK and AA and can only beat AK, 77, or air (or AJ, same difference). As I said before I really don’t put him on KK or AA. He certainly doesn’t have a busted draw either, so it’s way ahead or way behind for me.

Don't you just hate it when you play well all session then butcher a hand like this? Ho hum.

Anyway, do I call?

[Pyso]

Ok, I did call (reluctantly) but should I have done?

[gatso]

I want to know whether the pot is offering me enough to call the re-raise on the river, given the range of hands I put him on.

I reckon it’s

50% chance he has nines, tens or jacks
30% AK
20% air (has been floating me) or smaller pair

There is now £370 in the pot and it’s £100 to call, so I am getting 3.7 to 1, or 3.6 to 1 once we take away the rake.

so you think you're winning 50% of the time and want to know if 3.6/1 is good enough to call? am I missing something here?

[Pyso]

Sorry, I know the maths means that I have to call.

I should have added that what I was really getting at was the fact that I misplayed the hand so badly that I forced myself to call when I knew I was beat. That was the gist of my post but I somehow managed to miss it out. I must still be tired.

[Longy]

Betting the river is a bad idea here imo. Going with the range you have him on, what do you to achieve by betting the river? Much better to check/call or check/fold depending on bet sizing, tells etc..

[AlexMartin]

he has tens, if u take this line ship the river!

[Pyso]

he has tens, if u take this line ship the river!

Interesting line. It didn't occur to me at the time. Maybe it would have worked - he had nines.

[titaniumbean]

I think there are only two mistakes is one mistake here. pf and the decision after betting river. Will reply properly later.

edit didn't see it was 5 handed, pf isn't bad at all it's just not always a 3bet.

[Mitch]

I think you can dismiss the idea of him floating you as he is going to bet that turn card 100% of the time when you check it to him if he has set up a play. Some players, especially at DTD, are gonna call one bet with AK to try and catch a card on you.

I think check calling the river is better here than firing an obvious stopper bet as better players are just gonna get you to put your hand down a lot of the time.

I would take this line if i thought a player is likely to pay me off with A high and the 2 pair on board, but once you are raised it seems pretty bleak!