Staking Request - Stars 180's - SOLD OUT

[T_Mar]

Thought I'd geek out and work out what the EV was for shoving here (hopefully numbers are right but maths not my best subject)

pot = 5000

Me = 17074
Villian = 17074 (effective)

Assumptions:

Villian Opens: 77+,A7s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo  (14.5% of hands) ..Seems reasonable even for tightish player (he wasn't a nit) given the FT bubble
Villian calling range: 77+,AJs+,AJo+ (7.2% of hands)

So villian is folding 50% of time when shoved on

KQo is 33% against calling range


hero folds = 0
villian folds = .50 * 5000 = +2500
Villian calls and we win = 0.5 * 0.33 * 39148 = +6459.42
villian calls and we lose = 0.5 * 0.66 * - 17074 = -5634.42

EV = 2500 + 6459.42 - 5634.42 = +3325


Shoving T9ss is actually even better as it has better equity when called, which is what numpty was saying.

[Numpty Dumpty]

Am I the only one who thinks this is a standard shove?

I'm probs never shoving here without reads. 10 handed with the pay jump and ft bubble most players at this level are playing pretty tight here so unless I've seen the player open a lot I'd rather pass this and keep opening a lot myself

if however we have info that oppo is competent then we can happily ship here

Haven't really got the stack to be opening alot, so was conciously looking for resteal spots

i have played loads of the 45-mans $69 on tilt - in my experience restealing is the way forward in these tourneys. people give too much respect to the re-shove but few opening raises get through. therefore, especially with your stack, it's all about finding the spots to re-shove - keep it up!

[Numpty Dumpty]

Thought I'd geek out and work out what the EV was for shoving here (hopefully numbers are right but maths not my best subject)

pot = 5000

Me = 17074
Villian = 17074 (effective)

Assumptions:

Villian Opens: 77+,A7s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo  (14.5% of hands) ..Seems reasonable even for tightish player (he wasn't a nit) given the FT bubble
Villian calling range: 77+,AJs+,AJo+ (7.2% of hands)

So villian is folding 50% of time when shoved on

KQo is 33% against calling range


hero folds = 0
villian folds = .50 * 5000 = +2500
Villian calls and we win = 0.5 * 0.33 * 39148 = +6459.42
villian calls and we lose = 0.5 * 0.66 * - 17074 = -5634.42

EV = 2500 + 6459.42 - 5634.42 = +3325


Shoving T9ss is actually even better as it has better equity when called, which is what numpty was saying.

thie figure in bold is not quite right. you are including the chips you already have. this figure should be profit you make by winning, not the size of the pot, so should be 22k - (i think??)

also, i think his opening range is wider than this. most players would open all pocket pairs and there is some chance (no idea how often!) he is raising with pure junk - literally any two (though obviously he will pass these hands a large proportion of the time) - the percentage of time that he calls the re-shove is pretty tough to work out, but i would guess it is closer to 30% - what do people think about this?

however, well thought out. this is the perfect way of learning if you can think about these situations critically rather than in a results-orientated fashion.

hope you don't mind my input!

[T_Mar]

Thought I'd geek out and work out what the EV was for shoving here (hopefully numbers are right but maths not my best subject)

pot = 5000

Me = 17074
Villian = 17074 (effective)

Assumptions:

Villian Opens: 77+,A7s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo  (14.5% of hands) ..Seems reasonable even for tightish player (he wasn't a nit) given the FT bubble
Villian calling range: 77+,AJs+,AJo+ (7.2% of hands)

So villian is folding 50% of time when shoved on

KQo is 33% against calling range


hero folds = 0
villian folds = .50 * 5000 = +2500
Villian calls and we win = 0.5 * 0.33 * 39148 = +6459.42
villian calls and we lose = 0.5 * 0.66 * - 17074 = -5634.42

EV = 2500 + 6459.42 - 5634.42 = +3325


Shoving T9ss is actually even better as it has better equity when called, which is what numpty was saying.

thie figure in bold is not quite right. you are including the chips you already have. this figure should be profit you make by winning, not the size of the pot, so should be 22k - (i think??)

also, i think his opening range is wider than this. most players would open all pocket pairs and there is some chance (no idea how often!) he is raising with pure junk - literally any two (though obviously he will pass these hands a large proportion of the time) - the percentage of time that he calls the re-shove is pretty tough to work out, but i would guess it is closer to 30% - what do people think about this?

however, well thought out. this is the perfect way of learning if you can think about these situations critically rather than in a results-orientated fashion.

hope you don't mind my input!

far from it... really appreciate it! I'll have another go at the figures when I get a min.. he could well of been opening wider, I just used conservative estimate, but 5 handed on bubble it could be lot more, agree.

Cheers

[T_Mar]

had another go

hero folds = 0
villian folds = .50 * 5000 = +2500
Villian calls and we win = 0.5 * 0.33 * 22000 = +3630
villian calls and we lose = 0.5 * 0.66 * - 17074 = -5634.42

=  +496

So quite borderline actually but still +EV, obv by ammending his calling range to 30% it improves things for us

[Blatch]

had another go

hero folds = 0
villian folds = .50 * 5000 = +2500
Villian calls and we win = 0.5 * 0.33 * 22000 = +3630
villian calls and we lose = 0.5 * 0.66 * - 17074 = -5634.42

=  +496

So quite borderline actually but still +EV

Is 496 enough when you should have a big edge on this kinda field?

[T_Mar]

had another go

hero folds = 0
villian folds = .50 * 5000 = +2500
Villian calls and we win = 0.5 * 0.33 * 22000 = +3630
villian calls and we lose = 0.5 * 0.66 * - 17074 = -5634.42

=  +496

So quite borderline actually but still +EV

Is 496 enough when you should have a big edge on this kinda field?

Not sure the answer to that tbh, any +EV play (even if small) cant be 'bad', can it? quite difficult to quantify... If villians calling range is 30% like numpty suggested then it obv improves things and shoving def > folding.  Impossible to know exactly tho. 

[Longy]

I would pretty much take any neutral ev opportunity, never mind slightly +ev spots (496 chips is more than slight). In this format having a big stack and weilding against the mid stacks in the money and especially bubble situation is well worth taking the risk to get a stack.

[T_Mar]

Playing tonight now

[T_Mar]

Crap night, games just not filling up so only manged 5 more.. came 12th in $11 game for min cash - lost my stack flipping with shorties around the bubble and ended up running my 10bb into AK

Be playing midweek next, hopefully games will start to fill up a bit quicker, normally not too bad

[T_Mar]

Playing tonight.. obv want to try and get as many games in as I can - just noticed a new 22buch 6max tourn capped at 500players - has just started and only 120 in - prob get to 200... would be up for including games like this unless anyone got an objection?!

I'll give it 10mins and if no one replied will stick to the 180s tonight and see what people think for future

[Blatch]

go for it

Whats our running balance?

[T_Mar]

go for it

Whats our running balance?

ok i'm in - hope this is ok with everyone, its in the OP but ~40 down, hoping to get few games in tonight

[Blatch]

Prob best to keep posting it.

Most of us are lazy and cant be bothered to keep going back to OP

[Blatch]

oh and gl