Midweek football

[gatso]

and i like welling after managering them to CM glory about 14-15 years ago

gtfo, why have you never mentioned that? my respect for you has gone through the roof now. welling are possibly the greatest

[pokefast]

never bet on games involving your own team is the only rule i try not to break

Who is your team Iron?

scotland its aberdeen and my lower team is lossiemouth (highland league)
england its southampton and my lower league team is scunthorpe (but they have reversed postions) and i like welling after managering them to CM glory about 14-15 years ago

Yeah for some reason Aberdeen have always been my Scottish team - great side in the 80's.

[Scottish Dave]

Thursday's Thriller Coupon:

1/ FC Copenhagen    @ 1/2
2/ Young Boys    @ 7/10
3/ Inter Milan    @ 4/9
4/ Villarreal    @ 3/5
5/ QPR    @ 17/20 ................ Friday Night Game!

9.90/1

£10 on
Returns £109.02

[TightEnd]

5/ QPR    @ 17/20 ................ Friday Night Game!

How many games have Leicester lost in the league this year Dave

Don't think QPR are great value odds-on, favourites possibly but its not great value

[Scottish Dave]

5/ QPR    @ 17/20 ................ Friday Night Game!

How many games have Leicester lost in the league this year Dave

Don't think QPR are great value odds-on, favourites possibly but its not great value

They have lost 2 games this season, whereas QPR haven't lost a game at home this season, 3, 3, 0, scored 16 conceeded 6.

I don't mind if there isn't any value, im backing the team i think will win, can't grumble about value when there are only 3 games tomorrow night.

[kukushkin88]

5/ QPR    @ 17/20 ................ Friday Night Game!

How many games have Leicester lost in the league this year Dave

Don't think QPR are great value odds-on, favourites possibly but its not great value

They have lost 2 games this season, whereas QPR haven't lost a game at home this season, 3, 3, 0, scored 16 conceeded 6.

I don't mind if there isn't any value, im backing the team i think will win, can't grumble about value when there are only 3 games tomorrow night.

"I don't mind if there isn't any value i'm backing the team i think will win"

This will be why you don't win money. I know it's been said a thousand times but once more can't hurt, value is the one and only consideration in succesful betting.

[TightEnd]

I don't mind if there isn't any value, im backing the team i think will win, can't grumble about value when there are only 3 games tomorrow night.

1 if its not the right price its a bad bet

2 only 3 games, you don't have to have a bet!

[Scottish Dave]

5/ QPR    @ 17/20 ................ Friday Night Game!

How many games have Leicester lost in the league this year Dave

Don't think QPR are great value odds-on, favourites possibly but its not great value

They have lost 2 games this season, whereas QPR haven't lost a game at home this season, 3, 3, 0, scored 16 conceeded 6.

I don't mind if there isn't any value, im backing the team i think will win, can't grumble about value when there are only 3 games tomorrow night.

"I don't mind if there isn't any value i'm backing the team i think will win"

This will be why you don't win money. I know it's been said a thousand times but once more can't hurt, value is the one and only consideration in succesful betting.

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

If Barcelona were playing My local pub team and my pub team were priced @ 1000/1, but you priced it up as 500/1, would you them go and bet my Pub team @ 1000/1?

If your only looking at value them yes you'd back it, however there is no way in the world you will win this bet, therefore Value isn't the only consideration.

[gatso]

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

no it isn't. it's an indisputable mathematical FACT

[Scottish Dave]

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

no it isn't. it's an indisputable mathematical FACT

so even if you knew that team were NOT going to win, you'd still place money on them?

[kukushkin88]

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

no it isn't. it's an indisputable mathematical FACT

so even if you knew that team were NOT going to win, you'd still place money on them?

How can you not understand this Dave? It's very simple stuff. If something has a better chance of wiining than the price that is available you bet on it if doesn't you don't.

[gatso]

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

no it isn't. it's an indisputable mathematical FACT

so even if you knew that team were NOT going to win, you'd still place money on them?

if I knew a team would not win then I would be incorrect to price them at 500/1 as in your example. so no I wouldn't bet on them

[TightEnd]

lol this is only true to a degree, ok let me ask:

no it isn't. it's an indisputable mathematical FACT

so even if you knew that team were NOT going to win, you'd still place money on them?

if I knew a team would not win then I would be incorrect to price them at 500/1 as in your example. so no I wouldn't bet on them

Just trying to help, Dave

You say If your only looking at value them yes you'd back it, however there is no way in the world you will win this bet, therefore Value isn't the only consideration.

So in fact you are not pricing up the pub team at 500-1, you are pricing them up at any price you want to one as "there is no way in the world you will win this bet" so your example is flawed.

To take another example, you are backing Inter Milan at 4-9. Ok so they are odds on, and likely to win you think. We'll agree on that. However I'd say the price reflects what everyone knows. I'd rather be the bookie taking the money off you than the punter putting the money on, in perfectly priced markets like these short odds on shots

...when you consider you are backing five odds on shots, the value has to be in the bookie's favour because you are not being at all contrarian. A lot of the guys on here are trying to find value...ie an underdog that they think is mispriced, not a stone cold certainty where it is in the price already because no bookie will offer value above a short price.

[action man]

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

[Scottish Dave]

I understand value, i always have, even though you's guys keep trying to explain it.

I couldn't give a fuck if a team is priced up as 20/1 and should be 15/1 or 12/1, at the end of the day they are still complete outsiders in the match, no matter if they are 12/1, 15/1 or 20/1.

Id rather bet the team that had more chance of WINNING than i complete outsider that has very little chance of winning.

Its as simple as that.