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Author Topic: Midweek football  (Read 18762 times)
Scottish Dave
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« Reply #75 on: October 29, 2009, 06:59:14 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game
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« Reply #76 on: October 29, 2009, 07:00:59 PM »

and i like welling after managering them to CM glory about 14-15 years ago

gtfo, why have you never mentioned that? my respect for you has gone through the roof now. welling are possibly the greatest

never knew you was a welling fan or i might have mentioned it
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« Reply #77 on: October 29, 2009, 07:02:02 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #78 on: October 29, 2009, 07:02:13 PM »

I understand value, i always have, even though you's guys keep trying to explain it.

I couldn't give a fuck if a team is priced up as 20/1 and should be 15/1 or 12/1, at the end of the day they are still complete outsiders in the match, no matter if they are 12/1, 15/1 or 20/1.

Id rather bet the team that had more chance of WINNING than i complete outsider that has very little chance of winning.

Its as simple as that.


which is why Bookies make money Dave, because upsets happen more often than the punters odds on sure things, where it is all in the price

Most successful punters I know are ruthless in finding value and treat it as a long term game. If something is 20-1 and they think its a 16-1 shot, make the same bet over 16 such identifiable bets and they come out ahead, assuming they identy correctly.
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Scottish Dave
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« Reply #79 on: October 29, 2009, 07:04:59 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5
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« Reply #80 on: October 29, 2009, 07:06:50 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so 4-9 is a good price then
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action man
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« Reply #81 on: October 29, 2009, 07:10:51 PM »

so com dave, so so com.

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Ironside
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« Reply #82 on: October 29, 2009, 07:11:28 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so you are now pricing the game at 20.0 fullham 1.05 liverpoll name your own price on the draw

ok that way you are getting vallue on liverpool if they are 1.10 or better then get your money on

trigg dave has priced the value at 20.0 i would wait before you place that bet
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Scottish Dave
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« Reply #83 on: October 29, 2009, 07:15:31 PM »

I understand value, i always have, even though you's guys keep trying to explain it.

I couldn't give a fuck if a team is priced up as 20/1 and should be 15/1 or 12/1, at the end of the day they are still complete outsiders in the match, no matter if they are 12/1, 15/1 or 20/1.

Id rather bet the team that had more chance of WINNING than i complete outsider that has very little chance of winning.

Its as simple as that.


which is why Bookies make money Dave, because upsets happen more often than the punters odds on sure things, where it is all in the price

Most successful punters I know are ruthless in finding value and treat it as a long term game. If something is 20-1 and they think its a 16-1 shot, make the same bet over 16 such identifiable bets and they come out ahead, assuming they identy correctly.

Thats the difference, i don't treat it as a long term thing, i want to win the bet i place at that time, i don't look at betting the same bet 16 times and winning one of them at 20/1 to make a 4 x stake profit. That would take far to much time and energy, i be to win that night only.
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Scottish Dave
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« Reply #84 on: October 29, 2009, 07:17:16 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so 4-9 is a good price then

If liverpool are 4/9, i would back them.
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Scottish Dave
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« Reply #85 on: October 29, 2009, 07:18:47 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so you are now pricing the game at 20.0 fullham 1.05 liverpoll name your own price on the draw

ok that way you are getting vallue on liverpool if they are 1.10 or better then get your money on

trigg dave has priced the value at 20.0 i would wait before you place that bet

i didn't price any value at all mate, all im saying is, id bet liverpool EVERY time, no matter what the price was
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« Reply #86 on: October 29, 2009, 07:19:05 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so 4-9 is a good price then

If liverpool are 4/9, i would back them.

thought you said they would 95 out of a 100 at 4/9 you only think they will win about 69 times out of 100
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TightEnd
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« Reply #87 on: October 29, 2009, 07:19:09 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so 4-9 is a good price then

If liverpool are 4/9, i would back them.


Absolutely, you should back them into 1-20 to get the value.
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« Reply #88 on: October 29, 2009, 07:20:15 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so you are now pricing the game at 20.0 fullham 1.05 liverpoll name your own price on the draw

ok that way you are getting vallue on liverpool if they are 1.10 or better then get your money on

trigg dave has priced the value at 20.0 i would wait before you place that bet

i didn't price any value at all mate, all im saying is, id bet liverpool EVERY time, no matter what the price was

so if i offered you 1000-1 on fulham and 1.01 on liverpool you would back liverpool?
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Scottish Dave
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« Reply #89 on: October 29, 2009, 07:21:16 PM »

fulham @ 7/2 are value to beat liverpool imo.

liverpool have far more chance of winning this game, therefore ill be on Liverpool. If they are less than 4/9 tho, ill just leave this game

if the games played 100 times how many time you think hull will win and how many time you think liverpool will win?

Ill take it you meant Fulham as no-one mentioned Hull, so if Fulham played Liverpool 100 times, id say Liverpool win 95 games to Fulhams 5

so 4-9 is a good price then

If liverpool are 4/9, i would back them.

thought you said they would 95 out of a 100 at 4/9 you only think they will win about 69 times out of 100

I didn't choose 4/9 mate you did.
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