Live 30r

[810ofclubs]

Ermm don't you continually slate live players for having no clue James?

FACT THEY HAVE NO CLUE

[Royal Flush]

People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k.

Errrm it was this that i am getting at, why do you assume he tanks everything apart from the nuts, i know lots of tez live players they still all snap AK JJ+ here

[MANTIS01]

People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k.

Errrm it was this that i am getting at, why do you assume he tanks everything apart from the nuts, i know lots of tez live players they still all snap AK JJ+ here

Errrm I can assume he tanks everything apart from the nuts because he tanks Jacks.

Anyway, the point is it really doesn't matter how quick you think he "should" call or what you think he "should" do or what other "tez live players" would do because that is all pretty much irrelevant. It's what he actually does which is important. And what he does is tank Jacks. My point was we can't really ascribe a tight calling range for him in this hand analysis because of how long he takes to call with Jacks. He could take the same time to call with nines.

[poonjoe]

People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k.

Errrm it was this that i am getting at, why do you assume he tanks everything apart from the nuts, i know lots of tez live players they still all snap AK JJ+ here

Errrm I can assume he tanks everything apart from the nuts because he tanks Jacks.

Anyway, the point is it really doesn't matter how quick you think he "should" call or what you think he "should" do or what other "tez live players" would do because that is all pretty much irrelevant. It's what he actually does which is important. And what he does is tank Jacks. My point was we can't really ascribe a tight calling range for him in this hand analysis because of how long he takes to call with Jacks. He could take the same time to call with nines.

lolaments

[Doobs]

you are assuming he is calling his entire opening range.

THis is the bubble - people get very nitty - he isnt calling 77-99 or AT AJ maybe even AQ and def not KQ etc - but again that depend on the player -and that should be the focus of the decission really

I'm assuming the following as that's the information I have:

"I don't think air is part of his range but is probably KQ suited, A10+, 77+. I also think he will fold the bottom of his range, probably 77-99, AJ, A10 and KQ"

That still leaves quite a large part of his opening range that he calls with all of which we are 50 50 at best against.

His possible hands with passes crossed out:

KQs

A10
AJ
AQ
AK
77
88
99
1010
JJ
QQ
KK
AA

So 6 are passes and 7 are calls. I know there's loads of combinations of A10 and AJ but the AQ and AK offset these and obviously the pairs offset each other. This is a quick calc that I would have time to do in a comp to work out how likely it is that I am going to be called.

The fact that there's a good chance we get called and are crushed makes this a pass.

Flushy's shove range looks about right because at least if we've got his calling range wrong we could be well ahead.

I think this range makes the push correct

47% of the time you make 31200, 27% of the time you are called by AK and AQ and make 13200 on average and 26% of the time you are called by big pairs and lose 47000 on average.  This makes the average +6000 chips or so.  Maybe the scandis have realised this all along?  Of course this ignores tournament equity, which may make it a lot closer, but that may be balanced by a steep prize structure.  In reality I ignore alll the above and take into consideration how tired I am what time I am up in the morning etc before I amke a shove like this.

[George2Loose]

you are assuming he is calling his entire opening range.

THis is the bubble - people get very nitty - he isnt calling 77-99 or AT AJ maybe even AQ and def not KQ etc - but again that depend on the player -and that should be the focus of the decission really

I'm assuming the following as that's the information I have:

"I don't think air is part of his range but is probably KQ suited, A10+, 77+. I also think he will fold the bottom of his range, probably 77-99, AJ, A10 and KQ"

That still leaves quite a large part of his opening range that he calls with all of which we are 50 50 at best against.

His possible hands with passes crossed out:

KQs

A10
AJ
AQ
AK
77
88
99
1010
JJ
QQ
KK
AA

So 6 are passes and 7 are calls. I know there's loads of combinations of A10 and AJ but the AQ and AK offset these and obviously the pairs offset each other. This is a quick calc that I would have time to do in a comp to work out how likely it is that I am going to be called.

The fact that there's a good chance we get called and are crushed makes this a pass.

Flushy's shove range looks about right because at least if we've got his calling range wrong we could be well ahead.

I think this range makes the push correct

47% of the time you make 31200, 27% of the time you are called by AK and AQ and make 13200 on average and 26% of the time you are called by big pairs and lose 47000 on average.  This makes the average +6000 chips or so.  Maybe the scandis have realised this all along?  Of course this ignores tournament equity, which may make it a lot closer, but that may be balanced by a steep prize structure.  In reality I ignore alll the above and take into consideration how tired I am what time I am up in the morning etc before I amke a shove like this.

It was 1.45am and I had to be up for 7

[poonjoe]

George am I missing something or have you not posted yr position/how many left to act?

Essential information to solve this

[George2Loose]

i was in big blind- folded round

[Doobs]

It was 1.45am and I had to be up for 7

Probably more than enough to lean me towards the push then.  Nothing worse than getting just 4 hours sleep after limping in to the cash.  2 hours sleep after splitting/winning it is such a better place to be.

[MANTIS01]

you are assuming he is calling his entire opening range.

THis is the bubble - people get very nitty - he isnt calling 77-99 or AT AJ maybe even AQ and def not KQ etc - but again that depend on the player -and that should be the focus of the decission really

I'm assuming the following as that's the information I have:

"I don't think air is part of his range but is probably KQ suited, A10+, 77+. I also think he will fold the bottom of his range, probably 77-99, AJ, A10 and KQ"

That still leaves quite a large part of his opening range that he calls with all of which we are 50 50 at best against.

His possible hands with passes crossed out:

KQs

A10
AJ
AQ
AK
77
88
99
1010
JJ
QQ
KK
AA

So 6 are passes and 7 are calls. I know there's loads of combinations of A10 and AJ but the AQ and AK offset these and obviously the pairs offset each other. This is a quick calc that I would have time to do in a comp to work out how likely it is that I am going to be called.

The fact that there's a good chance we get called and are crushed makes this a pass.

Flushy's shove range looks about right because at least if we've got his calling range wrong we could be well ahead.

I think this range makes the push correct

47% of the time you make 31200, 27% of the time you are called by AK and AQ and make 13200 on average and 26% of the time you are called by big pairs and lose 47000 on average.  This makes the average +6000 chips or so.  Maybe the scandis have realised this all along?  Of course this ignores tournament equity, which may make it a lot closer, but that may be balanced by a steep prize structure.  In reality I ignore alll the above and take into consideration how tired I am what time I am up in the morning etc before I amke a shove like this.

This is one of my favourite posts of late. Feel players will love it.

[poonjoe]

As there are no other players involved in the hand, its easy to find your shoving range if you have a good handle on villain's raising/calling range. However this will be on a purely chip-for-chip basis until you adjust for the tournament situation. Its difficult to do an ICM calculation with 12 people getting paid, but usually yr shoving range will be wider than the chip calculations suggest, as i) it is much harder for villain to call off his tournament life this close to the bubble and ii) you will still have chips if you lose.

How sophisticated is villain? If he is unaware how much HE is risking by calling here, then perhaps you should not widen your range.

If you fold, you will have 94k.

If you shove...
a) he calls, and you win, you will have 187.2k
b) he calls, and you lose, you will have 20k
c) he folds, you will have 125.2k

You made some assumptions about his range, so given that he holds 77+,AT+,KQs, and will fold 77-99, AT, AJ and KQs, what is the worst holding we can shove that on average gives us a better stack than 94k?

Well, there are 48 combinations of pairs in his range, 64 combinations AT+, and 4 combinations of KQs = 116 total combos. Of those, he will fold 18 pairs, 32 aces, and the 4 KQs. So (62/116) of the time he calls, (54/116) of the time he folds.

If you shove 66, he calls with TT+, AQ, AK and pokerstove sez you win 37.298% of the time, and lose 62.702% of the time.

So our stack after shove(66)=

(62/116) x
((37.298% x 187.2k) + (62.702% x 20)) +

(54/116) x 125.2) =

102.304.

So, chip-for-chip, shoving the 66 here is a healthy 8k better than folding. 22 is almost 7k better. A low suited ace will show a small profit, while AJo breaks even and AQo makes almost 6k.

Against villain's range, shoving 5-4 offsuit is just as good as shoving A-J offsuit. In fact, shoving without looking at your cards will only show a very slight loss. If Villain is mindful of the bubble, and you have a decent image, then you can happily ship any two cards here.

The key thing in this spot is the massive fold equity you have due to the chips already in the pot and the fact that he folds so much of his range.

[MANTIS01]

I don't know why villain folding "so much of his range" is a proven truth here. Why is this supposedly good cash game player putting like 25% of his stack in UTG and folding 9-9 here? And also do we know what time this guy has to get up in the morning?

[poonjoe]

Mmmm I did the maths based on what George told me. The range he put villain on sounded believable to me. A lot of players don't think through the hand in advance, to the extent where they will look at a pair of nines UTG, auto-raise for 25% of their stack (they have a pair of nines!), then fold to a shove. More so live where they aren't so mindful of stack sizes and pot odds.

Obviously a lot of villains in this spot open very tight and would call shove with 90% of the hands they open with, which completely changes the problem.... and of course it makes a huge difference that hero is in big blind and there is no more action behind. If I assigned villiain the same range George does, and had been otherwise quiet, then I'm shoving like 70% of my hands when its folded to my big blind.

If I were villain in this spot I would open fold 88 and open shove 99 from UTG, forget about raising. I might standard raise AA/KK.

[Royal Flush]

If I were villain in this spot I would open fold 88 and open shove 99 from UTG, forget about raising. I might standard raise AA/KK.

errrrm why?

[StuartHopkin]

Lol

I love all the maths here. Here's my equation;

Jam with crap = hope he folds = ooops
Fold = Oh hello, I seem to have spots that are 100 time better appearing shortly = wiiiiiii