Spread Firms are offering large incentives at the moment for new customers, so I am going to explain spread trading for those that don't know much about it and then update this thread with my bet of the day each day for a while and see what happens. For anyone that fancies a very heavily subsidised punt, read on, but I will explain the risks first for those that don't totally understand it:
What is a spread trade and why are they dangerous?
A traditional bet on the horses might involve you putting £10 on a horse in Ladbrokes. You know your maximum outlay and your potential profit. Spread trading doesn't just require you to be right; it pays out on a scale according to how right you are. Depending on the market, your £10 stake might actually be putting £1000 in play, so you really need to make sure you understand your worst possible outcome and tailor your stakes accordingly.
I will give an example using NH Racing match bets, as this will be the normal selections I will be making ITT.
Ladbrokes might price a match up 8/13 Horse A and 11/10 Horse B or something
)and if your selection beats the other selection you win - regardless of if they are first and second, or second from last and last, no other horse matters.
As a spread, it might be quoted as Horse A v Horse B 1-2.5
The spread firms use the above notation (quoted in lengths with a maximum makeup of 15 lengths) and allow you to choose your horse and stake. If you like Horse A, you "Buy" @ 2.5 (you spot the other horse a 2.5 length start) and nominate a stake (will use £1 for easy maths) If you like Horse B here, you "sell" at 1 and your horse receives a 1 length start.
The maximum make-up (result) is +/- 15 lengths, so here are the settlements for various outcomes:
1. Horse A comes under orders and refused to race, Horse B finishes last.
Even though Horse B won this match by about 3 miles, the maximum makeup is 15 lengths, so all those who bought the spread now owe £17.50 and all those who sold the spread now win £16 as the spread is settled at -15.
2. Horse A wins the race and Horse B falls
As above, all those who bought the spread make £12.50 and all those who sold it lose £14 as the settlement is +15.
3. They both fail to finish.
Spread is voided.
4. A came 4th 10 lengths clear of B.
I will let you do the maths...
Why trade NH match bets?
You don't have to, you can trade football, or whatever you feel like. Understand though that markets can be highly volatile, so always calculate your worst possible result before getting involved. I like the NH match bets, I think the spread firms quite often make careless ricks in the markets. I may be underestimating the skill of the respective trading desks, but many of the spreads quoted seem to be derived solely from the horse odds. In the world of NH racing, some horses haven't raced for 300+ days and are unfit, others have to carry around 12st in a 4 mile mudbath, some horses are suspect jumpers, don't like the course/conditions/distance etc etc. I'm not going to declare my complete strategy, butI think this gives great opportunities in a match bet where although both horses might be 8/1 shots to win, one horse most definitely isn't even money against the other to cross the line first. So I will put up my nap of the day for a while to a £1 stake and see how badly I get filled in for a week or two. Edit: It is a £2 stake now as that is the minimum stake to qualify for the promotions.
What was that about new accounts?
Oh yes, nearly forgot
Depending on spread firm, there are a variety of incentives for new account holders, and usually a bigger incentive to me. If anyone wants to open an account and take what amounts to being a +EV punt, let me know. For example, one firm are offering a free £300 bet after you have put £100 at risk. My contact details are in my profile or PM. I will happily chop whatever incentives we both receive. Please make sure you understand the risks before jumping in. If unsure, just sit back and laugh whilst I do my cobblers...
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