Got to win 3

[Josedinho]

The last thing we want is to lose decent tipsters from the forum. Some people are always going to disagree with your methods, thats life. This is the first tip i've managed to get on but have seen you've had 2 out of 2 previously so it's obvious to all you are doing something right.

[scotty2hatty]

For a start there is a huge difference between backing a horse, and backing a horse professionally.

Myself, i expect my runner to win, if it comes second or third at 5/2 i get 50% of my win stake back.

If your not doing it for a living matt you wont like it.

I could sit here for hours talking about hedging but i dont have the time.

Next time you back a horse go 30% win 70% place even better.

Mr Pat Ronise

I am obviously upsetting one or two of the board users, so i will not post anymore Got To Win bets.

The only reason i started was to try and put another angle on it for the more serious punter.

Unfound criticism was the result.

Good Luck To You All

Boo hoo. I didn't say what you were saying wasn't right, was just the way it came across.

[gatso]

norrrr. don't stop typhoon, you're on your way to becoming a tipping legend. I just need to see one in time to get on

[mondatoo]

norrrr. don't stop typhoon, you're on your way to becoming a tipping legend. I just need to see one in time to get on

[Maxriddles]

I have been giving a lot of thought to the wisdom of backing a 5/2 shot each way after seeing this thread. IMO it seems a good move in the long term if your information is reliable and your stakes are big enough. It's not for a recreational punter like myself but I can definitely see why someone who makes their living this way would do it.   

[typhoon13]

max

There is a massive gap between recreational punting and making a living from it.

5/2 e/w when you have very reliable info has to be taken, this is not an exact science and your sure thing can still get beaten, hence if its second or third you don't lose all your win bet.

30/70 is the best edge, bookies will not take this bet and never will, thank god for exchanges.

Like you said, small stake punting does not seem sexy with my ideas.

Good Luck

[steeveg]

Ive heard a lot of serious backers like to back ew at short odds, i
have never been able to see how this works in your favour
mathematically,

if you have 10.x £100 ew bets ,the win part of the bet is separate,
you are gambling £1000. separately on place bets
if every horse you back is 5/2.placed odds 1/5th. every race you either
pick up £150.when a selection is placed or loose £100

if 6 out of 10 of your selections are placed you have picked up £900,
cost of bets £1000.so you loose £100
to show a profit of £50 risking £1000 you have to have 7 out of 10
selections placed,7x£150.
7 out of 10 selections winning is a excellent strike rate yet the
profit for this is £50.,
maybe i am looking at this wrong but as i say i cant understand how
this is a good bet mathermatically.

[boldie]

Ive heard a lot of serious backers like to back ew at short odds, i
have never been able to see how this works in your favour
mathematically,

if you have 10.x £100 ew bets ,the win part of the bet is separate,
you are gambling £1000. separately on place bets
if every horse you back is 5/2.placed odds 1/5th. every race you either
pick up £150.when a selection is placed or loose £100

if 6 out of 10 of your selections are placed you have picked up £900,
cost of bets £1000.so you loose £100
to show a profit of £50 risking £1000 you have to have 7 out of 10
selections placed,7x£150.
7 out of 10 selections winning is a excellent strike rate yet the
profit for this is £50.,
maybe i am looking at this wrong but as i say i cant understand how
this is a good bet mathermatically.

There was a discussion going on in the Outlook about this the past few weeks. (shorter letter in about it today). They were only discussing 3-1+ but the same holds. some people love it and some hate it (including big gamblers)

[steeveg]

would of liked to have read the discussion Boldie, i imagine a few punters may view the ew  bet as insurance but they are 2 seperate bets and extra risk
i sometimes have a win bet and make the place only bet on betfair a lot bigger.

[boldie]

would of liked to have read the discussion Boldie, i imagine a few punters may view the ew  bet as insurance but they are 2 seperate bets and extra risk
i sometimes have a win bet and make the place only bet on betfair a lot bigger.

yeah, there are essentially two camps in this and it all depends on how you prefer to bet. The discussion in Outlook was actually about betting EW @ 3-1 or bigger.
This way of betting obviously doesn't work for all races but mainly for races in which only 2, or 3 max, horses can be given a chance (in your opinion).

If you can only see two horses getting involved and your horse is a 5-2 shot (and say the other one is the favourite of odds lower than 6-4) you can bet £100 EW on your 5-2 shot. This way you know that, in your worst case scenario, you only lose £50 but stand to gain £300 if your horse wins (£250 win and £50 for the place). In your mind (And this is important..it is only in your mind) you are therefore risking £50 to win £300. This gives you odds of 6-1.

Obviously if you're completely wrong you'll lose £200 so actually you are accepting 6-4 on your 5-2 shot.

In the camp that disagree with this way of betting (and many people do) some people say that you're not getting 5-2 and are therefore not smart about doing it this way. You should bet more selectively and thereby back more winners. But people that like it will point to variance and will say that their variance is lower.

There are also people that prefer to hedge the bet by playing a forecast in which the favourite beats your horse into second. (After all; you're assuming it's a two horse race)
Assuming the favourite is even money and your horse is indeed 5-2+ you're likely to get around 2-1 on the forecast. This means that you only have to place a £50 forecast on that outcome to get all your money back. It also means you risk £50 less. and you actually get better than 6-4 on your win bet that way.

Personally I'm not a big fan of doing it either of the above ways (Although I can see the RV forecast point and have done that in the past)
It all depends on the way you bet and the type of gambler you are though. I know people that do this very successfully, it works for them so I can't knock them for it, you know.

[steeveg]

f you can only see two horses getting involved and your horse is a 5-2 shot (and say the other one is the favourite of odds lower than 6-4) you can bet £100 EW on your 5-2 shot. This way you know that, in your worst case scenario, you only lose £50 but stand to gain £300 if your horse wins (£250 win and £50 for the place). In your mind (And this is important..it is only in your mind) you are therefore risking £50 to win £300. This gives you odds of 6-1.

yeah i can see why some punters like the bet, i wonder if any people who have been betting like this kept any records, how much they have staked and won or lost betting ew on say 100 horses at short prices, then work out how much they would of won or lost just betting to win on the same horses,

[The Camel]

I have backed 6/4 shots ew in my time.

[The Camel]

Let's say you have an 8 runner race where they bet:

1/2
5/2
8/1
33/1
33/1
33/1
100/1
100/1

That's a pretty fair book of 116% and the bookies will make a nice profit on bets

But the place book is horrible:

1/10
1/2
8/5
33/5
33/5
33/5
20/1
20/1

227%. The bookies will lose a fortune paying out 300% of a 227% book.

You are getting 1/2 about the 5/2 getting placed and the true mathmatical chance (if the odds are roughly correct) is probably 1/5.

If you get 1/2 about 1/5 shots for the rest of your life you will be very very rich.

[In Form]

Let's say you have an 8 runner race where they bet:

1/2
5/2
8/1
33/1
33/1
33/1
100/1
100/1

That's a pretty fair book of 116% and the bookies will make a nice profit on bets

But the place book is horrible:

1/10
1/2
8/5
33/5
33/5
33/5
20/1
20/1

227%. The bookies will lose a fortune paying out 300% of a 227% book.

You are getting 1/2 about the 5/2 getting placed and the true mathmatical chance (if the odds are roughly correct) is probably 1/5.

If you get 1/2 about 1/5 shots for the rest of your life you will be very very rich.

That is a very good explanation. The industry refers to them as "bad each ways" and it's one of the few times that the edge is with the punter, however do not expect to get much on when tackling these types of races.

[steeveg]

I understand what you mean about value Camel, it does depend how you look at this Mathematically,
at the end of the day 7 out of 10 winning selections at 5/2 ew risking £1000 to win £50 doesn't look a decent bet to me,
10 out of 10 winning selections wins £500 risking £1000, but that's what gamblings all about, different opinions,