6 non south american top seeds, england, holland, italy, spain, germany, sa. 3 of those will draw a south american team from pot 3 and 3 of them won't. even money surely
I think the thing you're missing is that it depends on the order the groups are drawn in (which is random).
If England's group is first, then the chance of getting one of these three is 3 in 8. The best we can hope for is if we're done after both Brazil and Argentina, but before the SA countries have been allocated, so all three of them are in, but two of the other ones have already gone.
I was just about to stick £100 on each of the three but just before I did, that thought just popped into my head.
Don't give a crap about the group stages really.
3 games a day! the group stages are the nuts!
And this, obv.