Sattellite Hand - Call or Fold

[Cottonbud]

This is my 1st Poker Hand Analysis post

I enjoy dissecting hands myself, so would like to see what your guys thoughts are on this hand.

Sattellite

$530 buy in

16 runners, 5 remain, 7 paid (1 seat)

blinds 125-250

Hero stack 13,068

Opponent stack (Chipleader) 33,000 approx

Average is 16,000

Hero is seen as loose aggressive this is second time in this round I had 3bet the Villain. He folded the 1st time so was expecting either a 4bet which I would happily 5bet shove over or a flat call from him in position.

Villain is loose, very active, he is opening almost every pot pre-flop, have heard he is a good player capable of making big bluffs and versatile plays.

Villian is in the cut-off opens to 600

Button folds

Hero is in the SB and raises to 1,678 with  

BB folds

Villian in the cut-off flat calls


flop  

Hero bets 1987

Villian flat calls

turn  

Hero Checks

Opponent checks

River 

(Pot size - 7580)

Hero Checks

Villain Bets 9403 (Putting me allin)

Hero??

What hand are we putting Villain on?

Can we beat Villians river bluffing range (floats/flush-draw)?

Is Villain capable of betting here this size with a single King?

Does he bet   like this? Surely he checks behind?!

There are alot of factors to consider in this hand: There is only one seat prizes 7th - 2nd are all the same $530.

My hand is almost face-up meaning its easier to bluff me off or perhaps get maximum value from me.

Villain knows that there is only one seat and If I go out now, I only win my buyin back.

[AlexMartin]

doubt he vships KQ so big (but thats the hand im singularly most concerned about), TT gets it in pre, probs 88 too, a lot of floats, ur hand is pretty faceup (not too sure about the flop cbet tbh, stylistic thing i guess), not that many flushdraws he doesnt be the turn with given how faceup ur hand is, erm, i call sir.

[MANTIS01]

I think this hand illustrates the advantage of position very well. I mean the guy can make a bet like that after you've checked the last 2 streets and you will have no clue what it means. Considering the guy is described as loose, good & very active that bet could well be just because you checked the last 2 streets. Not betting the turn with 2f/d's on board kinda suggests you're weak, and checking river kinda confirms it. The same applies to villain though because you'd think he'd bet a K on the turn himself, and he's not vb jamming one on the river imo. So it appears like he floated the flop. That said if you can fade some miracle flush you prob win, so suppose call.

[LeKnave]

dont fuck with allinstevie.

[Bandito]

I think this hand illustrates the advantage of position very well. I mean the guy can make a bet like that after you've checked the last 2 streets and you will have no clue what it means. Considering the guy is described as loose, good & very active that bet could well be just because you checked the last 2 streets. Not betting the turn with 2f/d's on board kinda suggests you're weak, and checking river kinda confirms it. The same applies to villain though because you'd think he'd bet a K on the turn himself, and he's not vb jamming one on the river imo. So it appears like he floated the flop. That said if you can fade some miracle flush you prob win, so suppose call.

+1, but dunno if I can find the call, and the trouble stems as skolsuper says from the size of your out of position 3bet.  I don't think I 3bet aces even as small as that; maybe about that with position. 

Having 3bet, however, the next problem is what should your plan be for later streets if your Cbet on the flop is called, because check check turn and river is going to look weak.  How would the villain expect us to act on the flop with aces, a big king or a 5?  I'm probably in the minority here, but I think our checking the flop looks scarier to the villain.  I think an unorthodox check-call, followed by a two-thirds pot-size lead on the turn whatever the card brings can look super scary, (albeit less effective against strong players), plus gives us a much clearer position about where we stand. 

All that said, we've got to be reasonably happy with only 1 over card on the flop and might want to Cbet now to avoid being confronted with another over card.  The 8 on the turn is a good card for us though, so if we fired the first bullet, I think we have to go ahead and fire the second and bet pot on the turn and give up on the river if called again. 

Ugh, ugly spot, good post. 

[Bandito]

P.s.  Stacks are deep enough to grant implied odds to simply set mine, so just calling and seeing what the texture of the flop is before committing any more chips was an option here also I think.