Close push vs fold spot.

[MC]

I think this is very close, shove vs fold?

9 left, 7 paid in a 45 man MTTSNG.

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Poker Stars Game
Blinds : 400/800 - Ante 50.0
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9 players
[SB] ArachnoJoozt (5186)
[BB] anadyr13 (3280)
[1] I HOPE FOR!! (21695)
[2] Hero (10645)
[3] StealthQueen (5905)
[4] Ro15Ro (7615)
[5] AlexGub (4250)
[6] omniquatro (4404)
[But] trifeknife (4520)

Hero : : Initial Pot: 1650

I HOPE FOR!! folds
Hero ..........

[Sack it off]

I fold.

IMO if you gunna shove from utg+1 on 33 you may aswell shove on T7o. With both hands you are in bad shape if you are called.

Pretty sure you will have the opinion this is a fold too James.

I can see why you posted this as its an interesting spot now that the chip leader has folded and there is now no-one left in the pot who can knock us out. But I still think its a fold

[Rupert]

Trivial fold

[vegaslover]

It's a fold

[KarmaDope]

Easy fold there.

[pleno1]

fold.

[Longy]

Erm I agree with OP,it is closer people have suggested in this thread, look at the stacks behind OP! We have them all covered.

Flip a coin James, i shove this when I feeling aggro and fold when I am feeling passive.

[EvilPie]

I think I'm shoving this tbh. You're in a great spot with that huge stack to your right and all the baby stacks still to act.

Can we look at it from a different point of view maybe?

What's everyone's calling range if they're one of the other stacks?

I think BB is the biggest problem as he is the most likely to call us light. He's in for 800 and has 2400 back. He needs to move soon so is maybe calling light. I think he calls any ace, obviously pairs and any two broadway cards.

We're 50 50 against most of these and we don't get knocked out anyway even if we lose.

All the folders out there. What do you do with 66 or 77 here? Is that still a trivial pass? I doubt it tbh but the hands don't play a hell of a lot better against calling ranges of everyone left to act than 33.

[gatso]

IMO if you gunna shove from utg+1 on 33 you may aswell shove on T7o. With both hands you are in bad shape if you are called.

you've lost me here. T7 is almost always in bad shape when called whereas 33 is ahead and racing a pretty big % of the time

[vegaslover]

I think I'm shoving this tbh. You're in a great spot with that huge stack to your right and all the baby stacks still to act.

Can we look at it from a different point of view maybe?

What's everyone's calling range if they're one of the other stacks?

I think BB is the biggest problem as he is the most likely to call us light. He's in for 800 and has 2400 back. He needs to move soon so is maybe calling light. I think he calls any ace, obviously pairs and any two broadway cards.

We're 50 50 against most of these and we don't get knocked out anyway even if we lose.

All the folders out there. What do you do with 66 or 77 here? Is that still a trivial pass? I doubt it tbh but the hands don't play a hell of a lot better against calling ranges of everyone left to act than 33.

Yeah it's the BB calling that puts me off a shove really. He should be calling no matter what and losing a race against him puts us back in the pack

[MC]

Interesting responses.

33 >>>>> T7 in this spot Alex, that logic is flawed man, especially when thinking about shoving from early position in this kinda spot.

Personally I disagree that it's an easy/trivial fold.

The Big blind is a problem as mentioned, and make the arguments for folding much more valid. But I find people nit-fold in these spots near the bubble and don't call loose enough.

I'm shoving 66s all day, I think 33s through 55s are an interesting spot.

I'm with Longy in that I'm shoving sometimes/folding sometimes. I think both are fine. I kinda like a shove that tiny bit more because it's an aggressive action.

[mondatoo]

The hand was one that i played,due to the stack sizes behind I shoved.

From my limited experience of playing these the bb folds a lot of the time here.As Longy said it's a spot where I would fold it sometimes.

PS It's not a bad beat I got no callers

[vegaslover]

Interesting responses.

33 >>>>> T7 in this spot Alex, that logic is flawed man, especially when thinking about shoving from early position in this kinda spot.

Personally I disagree that it's an easy/trivial fold.

The Big blind is a problem as mentioned, and make the arguments for folding much more valid. But I find people nit-fold in these spots near the bubble and don't call loose enough.

I'm shoving 66s all day, I think 33s through 55s are an interesting spot.

I'm with Longy in that I'm shoving sometimes/folding sometimes. I think both are fine. I kinda like a shove that tiny bit more because it's an aggressive action.

Yours and Longy's posts probs show why you are crushing the games, and the rest of us are not!!

[moonandback]

if everyone calls with the top 5% ie 88+ AJs+ AQo+ then with seven players left to act you get called by someone 30% of the time, 33 will win 1 time in 3 if we say we win 6400 chips when we win and lose 5000 (on average) when we lose then
.1 x 6400 + .7 x 1650(blinds +antes) = 1795 - 1000(.2x5000) =795 
shoving should net us nearly 800 chips

now if people call with a range nearer 55+ AT+ &KQ  or about 10% of hands we get called a little more than half the time and have a 37% chance of winning when called so...

.19 x 6400 + .47 x 1650 - .34 x 5000 =(1140 + 775)- 1632 = + 283

fwiw i thought it was an easy fold too until i ran some numbers and i think shoving is clearly plus chip EV and with the stack sizes here i would have thought we are only getting called really tight (with the possible exception of the big blind) i really should start putting this sort of work into my own hands imight actually get better!
any opinions as to whether the 800 odd chips is worth risking in this situation?

[810ofclubs]

not a sng player at all, but im guessing that because u hav all players who are still in the pot covered its a pretty easy jam for me. If u hav players behind that cover then its alot closer to a fold imo