Test your risk intelligence -

[vegaslover]

as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)

This

an example:

'the grand canyon is in nevada'

i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others.

what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?'

I know what the test says it does but it's all bollocks! I took it twice, putting random answers 2nd time and scored higher.
I manage/assess/score risk on a daily basis at work using plenty of evidence based tools, this isn't on of 'em

[dousche]

as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)

This

an example:

'the grand canyon is in nevada'

i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others.

what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?'

I know what the test says it does but it's all bollocks! I took it twice, putting random answers 2nd time and scored higher.
I manage/assess/score risk on a daily basis at work using plenty of evidence based tools, this isn't on of 'em

i havn't really read what the test says it does, it just makes sense from its structure. as for you scoring higher with random answers, i can only say that small sample sizing is an explanation (50 questions with 11 options seems a bit silly imo).

it doesnt test how good you are at crunching numbers and dealing with probabilities in a mathematical way (as i assume you do with your job) - just how aware you are of your own knowledge.

[rex008]

as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)

This

an example:

'the grand canyon is in nevada'

i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others.

what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?'

But Arizona, which is where the Grand Canyon actually is, is not even in your list, so if you thought you might even vaguely get that right, you were obviously sadly mistaken .

I'd be curious to know what score you get if you were 0 or 100 on every question, and got them all right. Is it going to mark you down for being clever? I only got one badly wrong (100% when it was false), and was 0/100 on about 12 of the 20, correctly, and my score was fairly pish.

[Sack it off]

I think the idea is, your not suppose to know every answer. I'm only defending this because I got a high score and would like to remain a genius...

[GreekStein]

89 wii

[dousche]

as they are factual questions why would you put anything other than 0 or 100%? (or 50% if you have no idea)

This

an example:

'the grand canyon is in nevada'

i don't know whether it is or not. iv never been. i do know, however, that it is near vegas - and that vegas is in nevada. i'm pretty certain that its not it california, but there are 3 other states v close to nevada that it could be in (new mex, utah and... colorado maybe?) anyway, i reckon it is in nevada, but i wouldnt be surprised if it turns out to be in one of the others.

what the test is testing is how good we are at predicting how often we get this question right. even though the grand canyon either is or isnt in nevada, given my uncertain information, i reckon i get this question right around 80% of the time. in this quiz, the question isn't 'is the grand canyon in nevada?' - its 'how often do you think you would get the question "is the grand canyon in nevada?" correct?'

But Arizona, which is where the Grand Canyon actually is, is not even in your list, so if you thought you might even vaguely get that right, you were obviously sadly mistaken .

I'd be curious to know what score you get if you were 0 or 100 on every question, and got them all right. Is it going to mark you down for being clever? I only got one badly wrong (100% when it was false), and was 0/100 on about 12 of the 20, correctly, and my score was fairly pish.

arizona, bah.

dont reckon they can mark you down for being clever, you should score perfectly for this imo (as you presumably should if you say 50/50 without reading the questions...). as all the points that exist on your line are on the calibration line (given large sample for 50:50 example)

[Moskvich]

Yeah, you do score 100 if you get them all right at 0% or 100%. Would be an odd score though, given the way the questions are written to promote a degree of doubt. Suspect it might be more likely that someone who refused to admit any uncertainty happened to get them all right, than that someone would actually know for certain that they knew all the answers.