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ripple11
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« Reply #45 on: May 01, 2010, 02:25:42 PM » |
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Tory majority today is 5/4 best price as far as I can see....HOWEVER, you can get: Conservative overall majority of 2-50 seats 2/1 with Coral. (if the majority is over 50 I'll pay you myself!  ) |
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TightEnd
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« Reply #46 on: May 01, 2010, 08:23:20 PM » |
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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WarBwastard
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« Reply #47 on: May 01, 2010, 09:35:13 PM » |
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Interesting article by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com where he tries to build a more robust swingometer than national uniform swing. He thinks when Labour reach only 28% there's a kind of inflection point where they really start to collapse and each subsequent percentage point loss becomes devastating. I've backed total Labour seats 150-174 @ 10.5 - think they need something like 26% for this to come in. Also backed Ed Balls to lose his seat at 13/8 with Paddy Power.
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ripple11
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« Reply #48 on: May 03, 2010, 12:48:46 PM » |
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Hung Parliament went to 11/10 over the weekend, which given the weekend polls was huge imo. Today back to 5/6 ish. Clegg is out with Colin Firth today (Brentford and Isleworth resident)......so lets hope it does some good for my 20/1 on the Lib Dem candidate there |
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redarmi
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« Reply #49 on: May 03, 2010, 01:44:20 PM » |
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Yes it was actually nearly 5/4 on Betfair...if I hadn't already been massively involved I would have topped up.
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kinboshi
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« Reply #50 on: May 04, 2010, 08:07:06 PM » |
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How accurate do people think the markets for each constituency are on betfair? Is it a good indicator as to how to vote tactically?
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
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typhoon13
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« Reply #51 on: May 04, 2010, 10:05:31 PM » |
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In this kind of situation you will find a tory majority, for sure.
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ripple11
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« Reply #52 on: May 04, 2010, 10:21:14 PM » |
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How accurate do people think the markets for each constituency are on betfair? Is it a good indicator as to how to vote tactically?
Dan best look up the constituency on : http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ |
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ripple11
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« Reply #53 on: May 04, 2010, 10:27:41 PM » |
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In this kind of situation you will find a tory majority, for sure.
maybe...but it does seem very difficult to call. Still my gut feeling is the Tories will be short, but will govern as a minority gov with either help from smaller parties, or if need be the lib dems voting with them on the Queens Speech. |
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ripple11
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« Reply #54 on: May 06, 2010, 10:27:11 PM » |
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Early days but looking good for Cameron in a hung.........
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redarmi
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« Reply #55 on: May 06, 2010, 10:32:16 PM » |
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I am loving a lay of the hung parliament at 1.60ish now...the exit polls dont ring true to me....the liberals share seems wrong and I have heard that many good judges thing the tories may have just nicked it. I am on hung parliament big at 5/4 but have hedged on a 2-50 tory majority at 13/8
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ripple11
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« Reply #56 on: May 06, 2010, 10:40:59 PM » |
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I am loving a lay of the hung parliament at 1.60ish now...the exit polls dont ring true to me....the liberals share seems wrong and I have heard that many good judges thing the tories may have just nicked it. I am on hung parliament big at 5/4 but have hedged on a 2-50 tory majority at 13/8
yes money came for the tories in between 9 and 10 ....hedged a bit as well,managed to get 2/1 on 2-50 |
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Bongo
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« Reply #57 on: May 06, 2010, 10:56:12 PM » |
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Watching the results all the Labour people are talking about is there is Lib/Lab majority... When did the 2 merge?
Seems odd given the LDs have been voting with the Tories for 5+ years...
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Do you think it's dangerous to have Busby Berkeley dreams?
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The Camel
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« Reply #58 on: May 06, 2010, 11:01:16 PM » |
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I am loving a lay of the hung parliament at 1.60ish now...the exit polls dont ring true to me....the liberals share seems wrong and I have heard that many good judges thing the tories may have just nicked it. I am on hung parliament big at 5/4 but have hedged on a 2-50 tory majority at 13/8
In the past people have been ashamed to admit they voted Tory to exit pollsters. Now I suspect it might be shame to admit a Labour vote. Also, a high turnout should favour Labour. I have had a lump on a hung parliament at 4/7. |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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redarmi
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« Reply #59 on: May 07, 2010, 12:08:16 AM » |
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Really Keith?? I am trying to keep my prices updated in running and at the moment I am effectively each of two a tory majority and No overall majority. Have biggish position on NOM at 5/4 but am laying anything below 4/6 a Tory majority. I think in the marginals the swing will be bigger. Other positions I have taken are Labour under 230.5 seats and Tories under 330.5 seats both at 5/6. think 326 or so is the right line for Tory seats and about 215 is right for Labour (although the latter is harder to predict)
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