EW betting...not bored anymore

[Chompy]

Nice start sir.
There's no value in doing these place only on Betfair as the place only price for this type is always way shorter than the 1/5 the odds (theoretically) available with the fixed odds boys.
For example, Baron Watlass was paying 4/5 a place there in a conventional each-way bet but the place only SP on Betty was 1.38, which is just shorter than 2/5.

[Girgy85]

Sigh was gonna get on for £10EW on Baron Watlass!

Nice start keep up the good work

[Nico29]

Nice start sir.
There's no value in doing these place only on Betfair as the place only price for this type is always way shorter than the 1/5 the odds (theoretically) available with the fixed odds boys.
For example, Baron Watlass was paying 4/5 a place there in a conventional each-way bet but the place only SP on Betty was 1.38, which is just shorter than 2/5.

Nicely put chompo, wow any1 would think you actually wrote for a living.

Ok so second horse won as expected due to my lack of an ew double, (always a rub), anyway nice start on day 1 with 2/3 winners and the other placing at a big price, even if i did jump on that tip.

3rd Result was:

1PT EW WON@4-1=6.8 PTS RETURNED (49.5pts)

Balance now stands at 49.5pts from starting bank of 40.

Now for another horse or two, haven't looked yet as just woke up. Actually won a small comp last night too, a nice day all round.

[Nico29]

Wow there are so many almost dirty ew horses today, some may turn filthy later and some may not.

There are also like 2-3 that are def bets, it's possibly a crazy day for ew dbles, trebles and things, but tbh i'm gonna try and be very selective as this could get a little ugly if it goes wrong, so i'll probably be just mixing up those 3.

The evening meeting where most of the bad ew horses are running in is a long way to...

Anyway there probably won't be a selection until the evening racing although i'll try and post them asap.

EDIT! Just seen something turn a bit dirty in the 315 southwell upcoming, it's just a small bet though.

0.5PTS EW 315 southwell-Magic haze@11-2

Sorry for orig saying haydock there, its def running at southwell!

[Nico29]

Ok so that finished 3rd in rather a damb squib of a race.

Result:

0.5PTS EW 3RD@11-2=1.05PTS RETURNED (49.55pts)

Balance 49.55pts.

Moving onto bigger and better things...best go get those later horses sorted.

[Nico29]

Again deviating from my plan of just laying into the really bad ew horses later, i've been unable to resist playing in the 505 haydock.

This is a bookies nightmare for each way bets. The big odds on fav looks a cert but that opens up so many value ew bets on the others. Most of them look much of a muchness but i'll let the betfair market guide me and also try and snag the best price available if possible.

Having said this the best guide is probbaly to watch the market a few minutes before the race when the real ew challenger will no doubt appear in the market, but it's a small play race for me so i'll get my bets done now:

Always assume i've done best price guarantee unless said not.

505 Haydock- 0.5PTS EW OCEAN CLUB@16-1
                      0.5PTS EW BLAZING DESERT@25-1.

Like i said the fav should win, but it can still slip up, especially in a maiden and we are getting almost twice the real place odds on these nags.

Win win win please, now back to those later ones...

[Nico29]

Ok done all my bets and boy have i gone for the farm tonight, may be homeless by tmrw.

Few races where 2nd and 3rd fav are clear of the field in the market has meant i've actualy done both, something i'm never keen on as you back against yourself, but again it's all about the place value.

Ok here come the bets:

600 Sailsbury- 1PT EW SLEEPING WOLF@11-4
                       1PT EW REMOTELINIX@11-2

610 Tipperary- 1PT EW MUTAMELAQ@4-1
                        1PT EW JEMBATT@7-1

640 Tipperary- 2PTEW QUEEN OF SPAIN@3-1*

750 Tipperary- 2PTS EW SUTHERLAND STAR@2-1*

800 Sandown- 2PTS EW WEATHERVANE@3-1*

850 Tipperary- 1PT EW SEVEN SUMMITS@3-1
                        0.5PTS EW PRAYER BOAT@6-1

*=Also done in 1PT EW TRIXIE=8PTS( 3 EW DOUBLES+1EW TREBLE)

Wow this seems like too much hard work! Anyway most days there will be just 1/2 selections sometimes even none. Today is just a freaky day.

Total laid out on these bets is 31 points. Added to the 2 riding on the 505, im laying out 33 points of my bank right now.

To make calaculations easier on returns i'll deduct this from my current bank leaving 16.55pts available right now after these selections.

Time to winnnnnn big. Could get very ugly or quite pretty!

EDIT: Just done a ew acca on the above 8 selections too, basically a much smaller bet but it's 16bets so overall im laying out another 1pt, so that's now 15.55 left in the bank.

[Nico29]

Ok so one placed at best priced guaranteed of 33-1 and the other didn't in the 505, thus:

0.5PTS EW 3RD@33-1=3.8 POINTS RETURNED (19.35)
0.5PTS EW UNPLACED=0 POINTS RETURNED  (19.35)

Thus balance before the 8 that may make or break this challenge tonight= 19.35 points.

[stribling]

Nice one Nico - I was on Blazing 33/1 2.50 e/w (balllaaaa) £19 returned cheers mate!

[Nico29]

Ok so a very average set of results, neither a nightmare nor a coupon buster.

Results:

600 Sailsbury- 1PT EW SLEEPING WOLF@11-4 - UNPLACED (19.35)
                       1PT EW REMOTELINIX@11-2- 2ND-2.1PTS RETURNED (21.45)

610 Tipperary- 1PT EW MUTAMELAQ@4-1- 2ND-1.8 PTS RETURNED (23.25)
                        1PT EW JEMBATT@7-1-1ST-10.4PTS RETURNED (33.65)

640 Tipperary- 2PTS EW QUEEN OF SPAIN@3-1*-2ND@11-2 BPG-4.2PTS RETURNED (37.85)

750 Tipperary- 2PTS EW SUTHERLAND STAR@2-1*-UNPLACED (37.85)

800 Sandown- 2PTS EW WEATHERVANE@3-1*-UNPLACED (37.85)

850 Tipperary- 1PT EW SEVEN SUMMITS@3-1-2ND@4-1 BPG-1.8 PTS RETURNED (39.65)
                        0.5PTS EW PRAYER BOAT@6-1-3RD@13-2 BPG-1.15 PTS RETURNED (40.80)

*=Also done in 1PT EW TRIXIE=8PTS( 3 EW DOUBLES+1EW TREBLE)-LOST (40.80)

Overall a bad day despite a 7-1 winner, probably the odd 2 pt selection that should have been a 1pt max, and the trixie was obviously costly.

Still up overall if only by a bowl.

Balance 40.80 PTS.

[typhoon13]

Keep em coming

[Horneris]

Pretty sure you need to be a lot more selective than this.

Betting 4 races out of 7 at some shitty Irish meeting with multiple horses in some races is a pretty quick way to bustoville, bad EW or not.

[Nico29]

Pretty sure you need to be a lot more selective than this.

Betting 4 races out of 7 at some shitty Irish meeting with multiple horses in some races is a pretty quick way to bustoville, bad EW or not.

Nah i disagree.

Yesterday was a complete freak of a day. I gen cannot remember there being so many in a day.

It's all about the place value, whether there are 20 or 0. However, in terms of points per bet i def need to be more selective. Upon reflection at least 2 of the 3 advised 2 points each way bets should have been 1 point ew selections. I think i got a little carried away with the sheer amount of selections. Also in terms of multiples they are by far the most swingy bet, in both terms of profit and losses, so maybe i'll cut down the stakes there so as to save on short term variance.

I get what you say over it being some 'shitty irish meeting' but tbh it doesn't matter if it's royal ascot or market rasen, bar potentially improved place terms. It might look scattergun (as i have been guilty of in the past), because i'm choosing lesser known horses in small races, but it's not, it's all done on whether the place part of the bet is value, just like in poker, getting the +ev can never be a bad thing. You can't pass up spots like these because it's 4/7 races.

Anyway better choose some more selections, hope there isn't 10 odd again...

EDIT- I see you also mentioned how I have put 'multiple' horses in some races, i had 2 max, and would never go higher bar a race that literally had to be the baddest ew race ever.

You do bring up a good point though, it bothers me when i back 2 in a race as essentially im throwing away 1 of the win parts of the bets.

I never am quite sure if backing 2 is worth the place part of the bet enough, and in terms of 2 per race i'm def going to try and only do so when they really do both demand selection. What i tried doing in such cases before with 2 strong ew selections, was just to lay the fav at skinny odds on betfair. This didn't seem to work massively well though, and i think i was leveling myself by changing the whole point of such an exercise. It's all about the place bet.

[Nico29]

Wow this is funny, only found 1 selection today and not running till this evening, i'll post it in a sec.

There are highly unlikely to be anymore selections today, most races just aren't bad each ways. At least that backs up my claim that yesterday was just a freak day. There is 1 race that might give another selection, but i doubt it.

[Nico29]

Probably my only bet today:

720 TOWCESTER- 1PT EW BUSHWACKER@2-1

I'd love to make this a 2 point ew bet as bar the fav it's miles clear of the rest of the field in the betting, the fact that it's a 7 runner race stops me from doing this.

As it's just the first two getting paid ew the place part suffers a little.

Yet it's still value as we are getting 1.5+ on the horse finishing in the first two when it's true odds would be nearer 1.25 imo.

I do like this type of horse/race, it's got a genuine chance of winning what appears a clear 2 runner race and i'd always rather be on this each way than the heavy odds on favourite, just ask the bookies which one they prefer to lay.