$250k GTD on stars facing a check raise by villain with history.

[Cottonbud]

Blinds are 500/1000 with a 100 ante

Hero stack 38,000
Button stack 30,000
Small blind stack 27,000
Villain stack (Big Blind) 52,000

Hero is in cutoff with 

History between me and BB, Villain 3-bet my Utg+1 open on the bubble I 4bet he folded. Next hand he 3-bets me small I peel and decide to check raise a J-9-3 x 2 spade flop he jams I fold.

Hero opens for 2244
Button calls
Small blind folds
Big Blind calls

Flop
 
my thinking board seems perfect to c-bet relatively dry. And I expect to take down the pot alot of the time.

Villain checks
Hero bets 4244
Button folds
Villain raises to 11277
Hero?

I really don't think he is check raising me here with a king I think the only King he could check raise is KQ. I really narrow his range down to air, sets and flush draws. I wasn't sure what to do in this spot and I hate the thought of peeling. Is this a fold or should we be jamming on villain expecting him to fold alot of the time? I was really expecting him to play back at me here!

[mondatoo]

Both plays would be fine.Never peeling.

[NigDawG]

jam for value imo.

sucks if it's varico and he's peeled 

[boldie]

Either raise or fold pre IMO.

[mondatoo]

Either raise or fold pre IMO.

He did raise

[Royal Flush]

Is this the 300f?

[Rupert]

seems like easy call flop call turn if theres only hands you beat in his range. no need to jam for protection since he likely only has 6 outs and if flush card comes hes still jamming that with his whole range to try and rep it+ we have anyway so fds far less likely (plus we can hit if he does actually have flush).  jamming does the old fold out worse get called by better (other than a FD which we are flipping with anyway...) and folding is bad when we are clearly miles ahead of his range.  given villains description/history i doubt he just gives up when a blank turn comes down

pretty interesting hand given dynamic etc, would like to see what more people think!

[OJ]

I really dont like jamming here. I think you are getting called here way too often by big draws with overs like  ,  6dx to have enough equity against his calling range. Your diamond redraw is fairly irrelevant here i think as you wil have bigger problems than just a FD in villians hand.

I might be a nit here but i think i would actually just fold the flop here. Calling seems like the worst option but you will be facing a shove on basically any turn with about 25k in the pot and you only having a pot sized bet behind.

If you were deeper I like 4 bet fold a lot as a line. but thats clearly not an option with your stack. Despite anticipating a move on villians part on this board, i think this is a clear fold as there are no turn cards you are going to like and villian is unlikely to shut down on the turn. You might be folding the best hand here but you will never be better than 50% if the money goes in.

Also, why do you think villian would check raise complete air here a bunch? Doesn't seem like the board to bluff air as its a super wet board and you will hardly fold hands like Kx, a flush draw with an over, sets or else.

so yea. obv fold for me and wait for a better spot.

[AlexMartin]

has villain ever flatted pre with AA/KK/AK? as played flat and call it off seems good seeing as he reps like very very few combos since we hold an ace and a 3 and severely cut his value combos. I cant be arsed to do a breakdown, but he reps very few value hands, given he wont always play 66 or KQ this way, so folding v a decent player is gonna be bad. I dunno whats best though, prolly jam? since like 0 draws are gonna get the price if we ship?

[boldie]

Either raise or fold pre IMO.

He did raise

DOH!

Shoving is more tempting then....and cry when he calls.

[OJ]

has villain ever flatted pre with AA/KK/AK? as played flat and call it off seems good seeing as he reps like very very few combos since we hold an ace and a 3 and severely cut his value combos. I cant be arsed to do a breakdown, but he reps very few value hands, given he wont always play 66 or KQ this way, so folding v a decent player is gonna be bad. I dunno whats best though, prolly jam? since like 0 draws are gonna get the price if we ship?

wow maybe thats me but i would NEVER fold a decent draw such as OESD + FD or purr + FD here in villians spot getting better than 2:1 on the flop. If we can rule out that he check raises complete air here (which im pretty sure we can if hes a solid player - the board is just awful to generate ANY fold equity) then his range will include hands like 6's, 3's, AK, 4d5d, 6dx, AA, KK and a few weaker Kings maybe JJ and QQ and small FD's. He would obv fold JJ QQ KQ KJ typa hands on a shove but i doubt he mucks TPTK or better.

If i can be bothered later on I'll see how much equity you actually need there against his checkraising/calling  range but i think ur in fairly bad shape.

[Rupert]

If we can rule out that he check raises complete air here

Hmm I very much doubt we can and would in fact say that any solid/competent player would be bluff raising this bluff a great deal with anything from ATo to 78cc and more.  From villains perspective, think what hands can continue here compared with what we are cbetting with, it's flush draws, sets and kings.  And they don't make up a big % of our range IMO

has villain ever flatted pre with AA/KK/AK?

i'd say these are pretty unlikely to be in villains flatting range given dynamic between the 2 it's so likely that hero gets paranoid in CO vs BB dynamic and 4 bet jams a ton of hands that it would be incred profitable to just 3 bet his nutted hands

[George2Loose]

Anyone just fold pre given history? Or is that too nitty?

[AlexMartin]

has villain ever flatted pre with AA/KK/AK? as played flat and call it off seems good seeing as he reps like very very few combos since we hold an ace and a 3 and severely cut his value combos. I cant be arsed to do a breakdown, but he reps very few value hands, given he wont always play 66 or KQ this way, so folding v a decent player is gonna be bad. I dunno whats best though, prolly jam? since like 0 draws are gonna get the price if we ship?

wow maybe thats me but i would NEVER fold a decent draw such as OESD + FD or purr + FD here in villians spot getting better than 2:1 on the flop. If we can rule out that he check raises complete air here (which im pretty sure we can if hes a solid player - the board is just awful to generate ANY fold equity) then his range will include hands like 6's, 3's, AK, 4d5d, 6dx, AA, KK and a few weaker Kings maybe JJ and QQ and small FD's. He would obv fold JJ QQ KQ KJ typa hands on a shove but i doubt he mucks TPTK or better.

If i can be bothered later on I'll see how much equity you actually need there against his checkraising/calling  range but i think ur in fairly bad shape.

misread heros stacksize, doh

[NigDawG]

seems like easy call flop call turn if theres only hands you beat in his range. no need to jam for protection since he likely only has 6 outs and if flush card comes hes still jamming that with his whole range to try and rep it+ we have anyway so fds far less likely (plus we can hit if he does actually have flush).  jamming does the old fold out worse get called by better (other than a FD which we are flipping with anyway...) and folding is bad when we are clearly miles ahead of his range.  given villains description/history i doubt he just gives up when a blank turn comes down

pretty interesting hand given dynamic etc, would like to see what more people think!

doubt he ever has better that often tho and our hand feels kinda weak to just give him 2 more cards worth of equity. there is now like 23k in the pot and 31k in our stack? think i'd happily take that now and reduce our variance.