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Poker Hand Analysis
APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Topic: APAT Scottish Championship Hand (Read 3689 times)
Rod
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APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
on:
June 22, 2010, 01:31:35 PM »
APAT Scottish Championships in Aberdeen
Buyin £81
Number of Runners 127
Number of Runners remaining 13
Day two
Blind levels/Clock length 3K/6K/300 ante 40min blinds
Your stack size: 71K. Average is about 97K
Stack Sizes of relevant opposition:
Seat Two: 48K
Seat Three: around 150K
Everybody left in is guarenteed £315. 9th to 4th Gets £550. 3rd get about 1K, 2nd About 2K and the winner is 3K plus
a GUKPT seat and some extra added value in APAT league points.
Seat two is Jack Prime who has been playing very tight and getting his chips in good and picking good spots to steal from to stay in it. I have not seen him make a raise from early position up to this point. Seat three is a young player who has been playing very well quite loose and aggressive, has not been afraid to reraise to try and push some people off pots, has not been make too many loose calls though. Not that it matters in this hand but my image is pretty tight.
In this hand the rable is playing 8 handed to there are 11400 chips in the pot before the hand starts. It folds to seat two and Jack moves all-in. Seat three dwells up for quite a while. He flat calls. I feel fairly confident in putting him on something like A-K, A-Q, A-J or A-10. It is also possible he has a mid pair. I am not sure what Jack has but I think it is a real hand, like a pair, but he could have AQ or AJ also. AA and KK are also in his range but are a small part.
I look down at AK. Is this a correct shove or is it a fold? There are two players still to act.
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BulldozerD
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
Reply #1 on:
June 22, 2010, 01:37:02 PM »
you sure its 8 handed with 13 left?
with my stack and flat payout structure up to top few places i am going for it and jamming going for the win
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boldie
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #2 on:
June 22, 2010, 01:37:19 PM »
Meh, tough spot...Am OK with both really and the fold might be best.
But I always shove
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Longy
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #3 on:
June 22, 2010, 01:37:21 PM »
Get it in, you are ahead of both of their ranges and there isn't really any ICM concerns here with a top heavy structure (APAT events have top heavy structures right?).
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DMorgan
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
Reply #4 on:
June 22, 2010, 01:43:11 PM »
Quote from: Rod on June 22, 2010, 01:31:35 PM
Number of Runners remaining 13
Quote from: Rod on June 22, 2010, 01:31:35 PM
In this hand the rable is playing 8 handed
Fire the TD I reckon
I jam this. If the UTG guy is a proper nit then we're only marginally ahead of his range. We're not crushing against the caller either but there is still a side pot aswell between you and the caller which still leaves you with ~50k if you lose to the shover but beat the caller
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TightEnd
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #5 on:
June 22, 2010, 01:45:19 PM »
7 handed. I was running the thing lol
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Rod
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #6 on:
June 22, 2010, 02:53:21 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on June 22, 2010, 01:45:19 PM
7 handed. I was running the thing lol
True, it could not have been 8 handed with 13 left. The situation is pretty much the same though. I have about 25K more than the original raisers shove. So IF my read on the player who made the call is correct and he has a worse ace then there is still a 50k sidepot. But it does mean that the original raiser is a bit further ahead of me as he is likely to have a pair and the first caller has one of my outs. If you look at it from a pure chip EV point of view it is an obvious shove is there any other way to look at it in this situation. Boldie, why might the fold be best, is it because I can find a better situation?
It it better to be the first one in with ATC than to (basically) call off my chips with AK and no fold equity. Does the answer change if the original raiser haqs more chips than me and I can therefore not create a sidepot?
Oh and fwiw the payout structure is actually as good as it can be, although I would prefer we play down to the money on day one, but thats just me, not everybody agrees which is cool. The added value is what makes it top heavy but these tournaments can really only offer the one GUKPT seat and the rankings system also makes things more interesting. Yes, its top heavy but the events are still great. If anybody happens to read this thread and is thinking of going to one I would really suggest you do.
«
Last Edit: June 22, 2010, 03:04:08 PM by Rod
»
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boldie
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
Reply #7 on:
June 22, 2010, 04:08:07 PM »
Quote from: Rod on June 22, 2010, 02:53:21 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on June 22, 2010, 01:45:19 PM
7 handed. I was running the thing lol
True, it could not have been 8 handed with 13 left. The situation is pretty much the same though. I have about 25K more than the original raisers shove. So IF my read on the player who made the call is correct and he has a worse ace then there is still a 50k sidepot. But it does mean that the original raiser is a bit further ahead of me as he is likely to have a pair and the first caller has one of my outs. If you look at it from a pure chip EV point of view it is an obvious shove is there any other way to look at it in this situation.
Boldie, why might the fold be best, is it because I can find a better situation?
It it better to be the first one in with ATC than to (basically) call off my chips with AK and no fold equity. Does the answer change if the original raiser haqs more chips than me and I can therefore not create a sidepot?
It's because I can't do the math on whether it's a profitable play or not.
Quite a few people would indeed say "I'd rather be in first with ATC", I don't subscribe, as someone else said "The pay out structure is very flat might as well go for the win"
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George2Loose
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #8 on:
June 22, 2010, 07:13:39 PM »
In ANY other tourney this is high 5 snap jam.
But in an apat tourney your probably up against aces and kings
Seriously tho, don't fold.
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StuartHopkin
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #9 on:
June 22, 2010, 07:36:56 PM »
I think this is defo a jam due to the payout structure of APAT tourneys.
I would struggle to fold it in a normal tourney to be honest with the size of my stack.
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mondatoo
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #10 on:
June 22, 2010, 07:43:30 PM »
Quote from: StuartHopkin on June 22, 2010, 07:36:56 PM
I think this is defo a jam
due to the payout structure of APAT tourneys.
I would struggle to fold it in a normal tourney to be honest with the size of my stack.
FYP
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DMorgan
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
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Reply #11 on:
June 22, 2010, 08:15:48 PM »
Quote from: George2Loose on June 22, 2010, 07:13:39 PM
But in an apat tourney your probably up against aces and kings
Do they really play that nitty? Never played one myself
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Delboy
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
Reply #12 on:
June 22, 2010, 08:54:57 PM »
Quote from: DMorgan on June 22, 2010, 08:15:48 PM
Quote from: George2Loose on June 22, 2010, 07:13:39 PM
But in an apat tourney your probably up against aces and kings
Do they really play that nitty? Never played one myself
No, but fairly close..
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Rod
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
Reply #13 on:
June 22, 2010, 09:29:56 PM »
Quote from: George2Loose on June 22, 2010, 07:13:39 PM
In ANY other tourney this is high 5 snap jam.
But in an apat tourney your probably up against aces and kings
Seriously tho, don't fold.
This is pretty accurate actually, although the caller was a good player but I suspect had not played much live poker due to his age (he said he was only 18) and the fact it was pretty easy to tell he did not have a huge hand during this hand. I did shove and the original raiser had ten and the caller AQ. The tens held up but I took the side pot. I think I played the hand OK but some people originally seemed to think it was a bit loose to effectivelt call for all your stack with AK here. People generally seem to think the shove is OK though.
If the original raiser has me covered though and the caller also has me covered does this then become a fold or is the price too good assuming I am trying to win ther tournament rather than ladder (which I always will be).
fwiw - I probably would have folded the AK if the caller had shoved rather than called, this might also be a leak.
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GreekStein
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Re: APAT Scottish Championship Hand
«
Reply #14 on:
June 22, 2010, 09:57:27 PM »
ya its a jam and not even close. we need all da chips in this one
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