$1/$2 Vegas river spot. Raise or call?

[cambridgealex]

A few limpers, SB makes it 12. have seen him raise as light as KTo when its limped round to him, but that was in late position, and he was reasonable enough that I could reliably assume his SB opening range is much tighter, TT+, AK, maybe AQ.

I make the somewhat fishy speculative call with    from the BB thinking the limpers will also call, but to my suprise they all fold and Im heads up, but in position, and have been running rings around this guy all session so didnt mind.

Flop comes  he bets, 15. looks like a standard cbet and not like he has top set so Im eliminating that from his range, and he knows me to be aggresive, I dont think hed lead here with AA. I flat.

Pot is now 60, he bets 25 on a  turn. Now Im sure he has AQ, AK or maybe QQ. I flat again - Ive improved to a 12outer, and can be certain of getting at least one more bet out of him, and he will probs call a river raise if he has QQ or AQ and I bink.

Which I do, sort of.  , my one non-nut out. He vbets 35 into 110. with 80 behind. I have him well covered. Is flatting the correct move? His range is mostly AK here i realise given Im not sure hed raise AQ from the SB with a bunch of limpers, maybe AQsuited, and QQ is obv unlikely as well. Any value in raising? he didnt look worried by the spade (in fact he said after he didnt even notice the flush) and I think he might just find a call with AK if i raised. How would you size the raise as well? I have to be able to fold if he ships it too. So maybe raise to 80or 85? Do i miss out on value by flatting?

[GreekStein]

If you do decide to raise, you should be setting him in. I'm never considering raise/folding with these stacks.

[geordieneil]

If you do decide to raise, you should be setting him in. I'm never considering raise/folding with these stacks.

pretty much this,

 but i think i just flat, if you do raise i think AK is the only hand he can call with that ur beating (poss AJ too)

[GreekStein]

If he's the sort of guy that doesn't even realise a flush has hit (lol bad) then I'm happy to set him in every time here as I think he's clueless and its a very +EV play being that we only really lose to AA/AQ/99 and QQ. In addition, he's prob a Vegas donk who's gonna stack off hella light or just abs love QK/QJ etc.

[SuuPRlim]

If he bet 80-100 Id probs just throw a call in.

But unless he is insanely smart and putting u on EXACTLY ur hand and levelling you into setting him in (which i doubt) then this is nearly always a "blocker bet"

Get him in!

In live poker, spots where you really beat nothign and should fold, people call far far more often than they should (because of his stupid river bet he's getting like 3-1 once he's all in) plus people get attached to hands in these spots, so he isnt bet folding AK very often. he just isnt imo

[BulldozerD]

i'd probably set him in, especially if you have been "running rings round him" as you described

[MrBlond]

I think you assumption that he wouldn't lead here with AA is the most speculative part of this hand.

As played, he bet so small I would feel far too nitty to do anything other than go all in

[SuuPRlim]

A few limpers, SB makes it 12. have seen him raise as light as KTo when its limped round to him, but that was in late position, and he was reasonable enough that I could reliably assume his SB opening range is much tighter, TT+, AK, maybe AQ.

I make the somewhat fishy speculative call with    from the BB thinking the limpers will also call, but to my suprise they all fold and Im heads up, but in position, and have been running rings around this guy all session so didnt mind.

also. KcTh is a really good hand, and KsTs is not a fishy call 150bigs effective imo its terrible to fold

[StuartHopkin]

Why are we raising 80 to fold to a shove if he only has 80 back?

[SuuPRlim]

Why are we raising 80 to fold to a shove if he only has 80 back?

Who is doing this? NUT LOW LINE.

[BulldozerD]

Why are we raising 80 to fold to a shove if he only has 80 back?

op alluded to raise/folding to $80, which no-one would ever do apart from a love misclick- from OP it seems villain has $115 on river ($80 back + $35 bet)

[DMorgan]

also. KcTh is a really good hand, and KsTs is not a fishy call 150bigs effective imo its terrible to fold

Definitely disagree that folding would be terrible. If OP has his preflop range correct then we're 29% against his range.

Not saying that calling is necessarily bad but folding is far from terrible imo

[DMorgan]

When he bets 35 with 80 back you're pretty much always gunna be good here, jam jam jam

[Sheriff Fatman]

The bit I'm struggling with here is that the limpers all folded pre-flop.  9 times out of 10 in these games they'd all come along for the ride!

[cambridgealex]

The bit I'm struggling with here is that the limpers all folded pre-flop.  9 times out of 10 in these games they'd all come along for the ride!

i know! was so shocked! these games are all about the limp/calling for these guys!